2008 Exchequer returns: Revenue E1.851billion below forecast

[kerrynorth]

Well we are going to find out shortly just how many fairytales Brian Cowen has been telling us on the economy.

In his last exchequer statement he revised down his year end revenue expectations from 49.075 to 47.325billion, a black hole of 1.75billion (0.8% of GDP). By November he was down 1.831billion so he is expecting some form of an improvement in December's figures. Unless some big Corporation Tax cheque got delayed in post in November then Brian must still believe in Santa Claus !

Anyway the true measure of what is happening can be seen with the 2007 and 2008 expected revenue figures. He expected 49.075billion in 07 but after the budget he is expecting just 48.776billion in 08, or 299million LESS than he forecast for 07. Factor in 5% inflation and you get an idea how big a turnaround this is.

But even some of his 08 figures have the look of a JK Rowling fairytale about them. The one I will highlight is VAT. He is forcasting 15.55billion in 08 compared to 14.87billion in 07, or 680million more in 08. However, as of November his 07 VAT forecast was behind by 394million even with the boom in spending in the first half of 07! So he is actually going need to find an extra circa 1.1billion in VAT revenue to meet 08 VAT targets. This when we know that spending growth has halted and the forecasts for next year are worsening all the time.

My forecast is that by the end of 08 he will be over 2 billion behind in revenue, it could even reach 3 billion.

[odie1kanobe]

Wow he missed his suggested revenue take as he seemed to suggest in Nov by 0.6%.

Thats not even a rounding error.

Frankly if thats all the difference is then its not even worth worrying about.

[youngdan]

Kerry. You have a good record of opinions on the Irish scene whereas I am at a disadvantage. Keep your ear to the ground on Magic Arse broaching the subject of an emergency budget that he alone was too blind and thick to see coming.

[kerrynorth]

Wow he missed his suggested revenue take as he seemed to suggest in Nov by 0.6%.

Thats not even a rounding error.

Frankly if thats all the difference is then its not even worth worrying about.

Where are you getting your figures from?

In November he ended with 1.831billion Euro less than he forecast at the begining of the year.

For the month of November alone he forecasted tax revenue of 10.938billion, he received 9.682billion, or circa 11% LESS than he forecast. That's a damn sight more than a rounding error!

[kerrynorth]

The figures are out and there has been a further deterioation in December. Revenue has come in 1.851billion less than forecast. Income and Capital Acquisitions Tax were both 17million ahead of forecast. However, Customs 20m; CGT 240m; Stamp Duty 740m;Corporation Tax 360m; Excise Duty 233m; and VAT 384m were all behind forecast.

Government capital and service spending was up 13.2% in 2007.

[jpc]

Government capital and service spending was up 13.2% in 2007

Bought electorate.Now make them pay.Dopes

[kerrynorth]

Overall Exchequer deficit ends up at E1.619billion compared to the forecast E546 billion. There was also a E360million saving on National Debt Interest.

[Ard-Taoiseach]

Overall Exchequer deficit ends up at E1.619billion compared to the forecast E546 billion. There was also a E360million saving on National Debt Interest.

It's also €150 million better than what the DoF was predicting before the budget. Set against the National Debt declining by half a percent as a proportion of GDP, I'm still sanguine about the fiscal outlook. Things would have to get a lot hairier for a lot longer for me to get worried. We're in a position Germans and Italians would kill for, in terms of fiscal solvency.

[youngdan]

We are sinking but the good news is the other ship has sank before us.

[Ard-Taoiseach]

We are sinking but the good news is the other ship has sank before us.

What's the other ship? Britain?