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About LinkBacksGoodbody stockbrokers are forecasting that house prices will fall 8pc next year after a 5pc fall this year. They have also cut their GDP growth forecast for 2008 to just 2.5pc.
<Mod> A couple of other points on this topic were made here. </Mod>
Goodbody stockbrokers are forecasting that house prices will fall 8pc next year after a 5pc fall this year. They have also cut their GDP growth forecast for 2008 to just 2.5pc.
<Mod> A couple of other points on this topic were made here. </Mod>
but our last ten quarterly growths are up, so are rents, everyone in Europe envies us.. how can this be ?
What you are suggesting, is that somethin g which went up, is now coming down.. that breaks every law of the universe....E-V-E-R-Y L-A-W!!!!!!
1,197 people agree with me.. how many agree with you ?
Thats an 8% drop based on current trends I assume?Originally Posted by kerrynorth
Within those figures I would guess that they are probably hoping that there is not a global financial crisis due to the sub prime lending fiascos. I wouldn't be surprised if prices were to fall by more than the predicted 8% over the next 12/18 months. Apparently the full extent of the sub prime lending issue won't be felt in Europe for another 12 months or so and that when it does hit, it is going to hit relatively hard. Many people think that only America is crippled by sub prime lending, but, the reality is that people in Europe haven't started defaulting on payments to the extent which they have in America. I am worried that it will just be a matter time before we see such a situation come to fruition.
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Some people see things as they are and ask why? I dream things that never were and ask why not?
G.B Shaw
Goodbodys are claiming that there has only been a 5% drop this year. Nonsense, multiply it by three and it would be closer to the truth. We are in a housing crash at the moment and its got a distance to go.
Speaking as somebody who will be looking to buy his first place and is wondering just when would be the time to buy, I can say that in Cork, prices are static, but not dropping. There might be some downward trend amongst newly built houses in areas a good distance out of the city, but not in the city itself yet. I could believe a 15% drop in places at the edge of the commuter belt in Dublin and possibly the other cities, but there hasn't been a general 15% drop.
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Economic Left/Right: 0.75
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -6.36
Dont forget to factor in inflation. Since theres no official stats on house prices its impossible for anyone to get a handle on them. Looking at the value of mortgages handed out, or the average listed price isnt accurate at all. We really need an official transparent register of actual house prices like in the UK.
And "commuter towns" (1 hour away from the M50 at 3am) have probably been hit harder than places within a realistic commuting distance to Dublin.
Locke
you should take the Rock of Cashel test and pick a few properties that you are interested in, ring up and ask if the Vendor is serious about selling and then bid 20% under and see who blinks first.
"I'm not a member of the establishment" B Lenihan BL, T.D., Min for Fin, Son of Fmr Tanaiste Nephew of a fmr Dep leader of FF and min and brother of a Jun Min. Bertie made the Sheeple happy.
I'd wait at least 12 months before doing anything. Also, whilst you feel that prices are static, asking prices may well be, I doubt if actual selling prices are - it's hard to guage however since many vendors haven't come to terms with the new reality, and are still reluctant to sell at a price they consider to be too cheap!!
Roc - regarding the what-goes-up rule... if they are destined to go down simply because they went up, do you think it is possible that they will drop to say £500 for a terraced house like it was a around half a century ago? And if, as I suspect, there is no basis for believing that this will happen - why do you believe that they are destined to hit any other point between the current price and £500? Basically - isn't the what goes up must, come down rule completely baseless?
tough to say. i'd lean towards waiting for about a year as its all up in the air. thats why rents are up, people are waiting en masse, but that said there are some amazing deals out there depending what sector your trying to get into.
case in point the house across the way from me was bought for 338k and has sold the last week for 300k. thats left the owner (who bought it as a fixer upper the year before) in in negative equity for near 40k but saved the new owner the same amount in a mortgage. not bad for a 3 bed 20min from the city centre of dublin.
theres ALOT of people up to their arse in debts because of bad timing in investing in the property market who have to off load now to pay off the bank. ive even seen houses being sold fully furnished at similar savings just to get rid of em.
its not that theyre bad houses or overvalued to any great degree. its just the owneres need the cash now and its a buyers market ( the house i mentioneds been on the market for well over 10 months and a previous sale fell through so i think they just cut their losses and ran )
its up to you. smart money says wait but a good deal could come along if ya keep your eyes open
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