Fall in house prices fizzling out.

[patslatt]

00

[Dublinguy]

Speaking as someone who's family are fairly heavily involved in the property market in Dublin and down the country the idea that prices are only falling by such small amounts are ridiculous...

The Index's are based on asking prices and as most people know the asking price and the selling price are very different beings.
It doesn't take into account the numbers of houses being removed from the market due to difficulty in selling them

[ibis]

Price indexes fail to capture the improvement in quality of houses sold as volume of sales drop in slack selling periods. The quality of the houses actually selling may have improved by 10 to 20% for all we know,but the sale prices are down, and on top of that inflation in the economy is running at 5%.

Tonight, I heard that a Dublin estate agent's business in high priced houses is down 80% from last year.

Or, to put it another way, those houses that are selling (thus providing the average prices) are the better houses. If the poor quality stuff fails to move at all, it doesn't pull down the average house price, because it doesn't register as a sale. The people buying are those prepared to take the risk, and they're only buying the better houses. This bit can be characterised as everyone hanging on hoping the market will rise again - a sort of "phony war" stage.

[theyshootPDsdontthey]

Anyone who thinks that house prices have only fallen .7% is seriously deluded. Even Ferry ************************z has stated that the Dublin market is down 7.4%

http://archives.tcm.ie/irishexaminer/20 ... y44159.asp

Everyone with a whit of wit knows that my.ho.ie is totally discredited as a source of house price date esp when it changed its website format to prevent Irish Property Watch from capturing data from it.

http://www.irishpropertywatch.com/

I know of a house near me recently in Sligo which was reduced from 360k to 320k and still didn't sell. It's now for rent @ 600 pm that's right 600 PM. Some juicy yield that less than 2.4% and money in the bank getting 7% plus.

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[freedomlover]

Anyone who thinks that house prices have only fallen .7% is seriously deluded. Even Ferry ************************z has stated that the Dublin market is down 7.4%

http://archives.tcm.ie/irishexaminer/20 ... y44159.asp

Everyone with a whit of wit knows that my.ho.ie is totally discredited as a source of house price date esp when it changed its website format to prevent Irish Property Watch from capturing data from it.

http://www.irishpropertywatch.com/

I know of a house near me recently in Sligo which was reduced from 360k to 320k and still didn't sell. It's now for rent @ 600 pm that's right 600 PM. Some juicy yield that less than 2.4% and money in the bank getting 7% plus.

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I have posted threads giving details of three separate national surveys on house prices. Two of them, Myhome and Daft, deal with asking prices. The third, Permanent TSB/ESRI, deals with selling prices. All three surveys covering thousands of properties are in agreement that house prices have only fallen by a few per cent (2 to 4 per cent) from their peak at the turn of this year. Are all three wrong? Are all three in the pay of the developers and FF? Merely giving examples of falls in Dublin that are larger than the figures I've quoted does not invalidate them, as the figures I've quoted are averages for the whole country. The surveys indicate that the falls in Dublin are above the national average, while in the country they are below the national average. The reason national surveys are carried out is to obtain reliable figures so that we don't have to rely on anecdotal evidence of the type that is often posted here and which usually runs along the lines of "I know someone who has a friend who met a man in a pub whose cousin bumped into someone at the hairdresser's who told her that some house in Balbriggan has been marked down from 500,000 euros to 350,000 euros with a dirty weekend with the developer's wife thrown in for good measure." I prefer to stick to reliable national surveys for my information, none of which indicate any sort of crash.

[Leftfemme22]

Well, thanks to freedomlover we all now know what the ostrich sees when his head is buried in the sand.

Beckett can rest in peace.

[jake76]

Freedomlover, the PTSB/ESRI is not based on sale prices . There are no reliable national surveys, I would say that irishpropertywatch and daftwatch provide the most accurate information on the market as the data is not spun by any VI. You can look at it yourself and draw your own conclusions.

The Index, is based on repeated subjective valuations....'rather than actual market transactions' according to the PTSB.

http://www.permanenttsb.ie/dynamic/pdf/ ... dology.pdf

[theyshootPDsdontthey]

Anyone who thinks that house prices have only fallen .7% is seriously deluded. Even Ferry ************************z has stated that the Dublin market is down 7.4%

http://archives.tcm.ie/irishexaminer/20 ... y44159.asp

Everyone with a whit of wit knows that my.ho.ie is totally discredited as a source of house price date esp when it changed its website format to prevent Irish Property Watch from capturing data from it.

http://www.irishpropertywatch.com/

I know of a house near me recently in Sligo which was reduced from 360k to 320k and still didn't sell. It's now for rent @ 600 pm that's right 600 PM. Some juicy yield that less than 2.4% and money in the bank getting 7% plus.

[/img]

I have posted threads giving details of three separate national surveys on house prices. Two of them, Myhome and Daft, deal with asking prices. The third, Permanent TSB/ESRI, deals with selling prices. All three surveys covering thousands of properties are in agreement that house prices have only fallen by a few per cent (2 to 4 per cent) from their peak at the turn of this year. Are all three wrong? Are all three in the pay of the developers and FF? Merely giving examples of falls in Dublin that are larger than the figures I've quoted does not invalidate them, as the figures I've quoted are averages for the whole country. The surveys indicate that the falls in Dublin are above the national average, while in the country they are below the national average. The reason national surveys are carried out is to obtain reliable figures so that we don't have to rely on anecdotal evidence of the type that is often posted here and which usually runs along the lines of "I know someone who has a friend who met a man in a pub whose cousin bumped into someone at the hairdresser's who told her that some house in Balbriggan has been marked down from 500,000 euros to 350,000 euros with a dirty weekend with the developer's wife thrown in for good measure." I prefer to stick to reliable national surveys for my information, none of which indicate any sort of crash.

Anybody that believes these surveys as I have stated earlier is deluded.
If you read the My.home.ie report you can see quite clearly that they have been EXTREMELY SELECTIVE in choosing what tyoes of properties to highlight when showing PRICE CHANGES in INDIVIDUAL COUNTIES.

ALso my.ho.ie is a vested interest which charges fees as a percentage of the sale price. It doesn't want prices to fall.

Yesterday's 2 reports are both based on ASKING PRICES not SALE/PURCHASE PRICESS.

Finally, you credability is zilch when you are prepared to agree with reports that Dublin prices have fallen lower than other parts of the country. There parts of the Dublin commuter areas i.e Laois and Ofally
where houses can't be given away because no-one wan't to buy them.
Anyone knows that there is serious over supply outside Dublin. The village of Kinlough in North Leitrim has 52 houses for sale on DAFT, Ballinamore has 123. That's about 5 years supply.

NB link to house that couldn't sell for 320k and was on maekrt for over 8 mths and which is now for rent for 600 PM www.daft.ie/236179.

On a more serious note to anyone from the non-Smashey or Nicey Brigade i.e. ROC what will the effect of the S23 etc deadlines passing have on the price of houses (as they may be artifically keeping them up at the moment)?

[feargach]

what will the effect of the S23 etc deadlines passing have on the price of houses (as they may be artifically keeping them up at the moment)?

Not sure what you mean. Care to elaborate?

[theyshootPDsdontthey]

what will the effect of the S23 etc deadlines passing have on the price of houses (as they may be artifically keeping them up at the moment)?

Not sure what you mean. Care to elaborate?

From revenue website
"A claimant does not need to obtain any form of advance approval or
permission from Revenue to apply for the relief. Provided that all of the conditions of a scheme are fulfilled, the relief can be claimed in an individual’s annual income tax return under the self-assessment system.
Under the self-assessment system, a return of income must be made on or before 31 October in the year following the year of assessment.

Anybody who is making a tax return can "invest" in a S23, S50, Rural Renewal Property and offset against their 2006 taxes. However, I understand that the deadline for this is late October/mid November, after this there is no "incentive" to buy until you are doing your tax return next year.

I'm wondering if when these deadlines pass will specuvestors who couldn't sell them be forced to sell their properties at a reduced price, thus bringing on a crash in the price of these kind of properties and by extension those around them.

Please see my figs above re houses for sale in certain areas of Leitrim. the fact that these properties may be S23 etc fails to become an attraction except for those who have to buy a house to live in.