"Thousands in Serious Trouble" - Economic Downturn

[Supermanpolitician]

This is not news.
Anyone who can read knew this was on the way. It was even on the Telly for the convenience of the illiterate.

Problem was the election got in the way, so FF had to wait a respectful period after their victory before telling us, the lowly citizen.

Just like they did with PPARS.
Just like they are probably going to do with Evoting.

How much more shlte can they condemn now that they fanfared pre-election?

Part 5 of the planning Act?
De-centralisation?

We should have all the back tracking out of the way by Christmas. The plan would be to bury the dead horses and get the electorate to forget before the Locals start up in '09.

I thnk you hit the nail on the head here but there are two separate issues.

1 The Economic Reality
2 FF's attitude towards it.

Taking the second point first, I agree that FF are disgarceful and that anybody with a modicum of intelligence could see that. However, and as much as I enjoy doing it, I don't want this to be a FF bashing thread. I would rather it became a discussion about the first point.

With at least one more 0.25% hike before the end of the year (most likely in September), people are really going to feel f**ked by Christmas. Expect very poor retail sales figures for the Christmas period!

[MookieBaylock]

If you take the long term view here - this is arguably the best thing to happen to Ireland since independence.. people lost the run of themselves and the boom was completely untenable - it was a bubble...
Irish people have changed, greed has become the new god and the under 25 age group have totally lost the run of themselves, driven on by parents who want their offspring to have what they never had..
I don't believe that a land cap would have worked; however a rent cap (per sq m) would have.. lets face it.. buy to let caused all the problems.. greedy landlords hiking rents, forcing people to buy as rent became ridiculously high (especially in dublin)..
despite the wealth generated in ireland, the standard of living is terribly bad..
in the european capital where i live, i earn perhaps 20 per cent less than i would in ireland.
however, my 120 sq m flat in a very nice area cost 120,000 and public services are free.
right now i have having a scrambled egg and bread and ham with tea which will cost 3.50, i can then travel 7 km in 15 mins by underground to my meeting. a pint of beer costs 2.50 and dinner for 2 less than 20 excluding drinks..
in dublin, this would be 10 euro for the food, 600,000 for the flat and a 12 euro taxi fare for the meeting (as it is i have a weekly ticket which costs 19 euro..
the pint of beer would be 5 euro and dinner for two, maybe 50 euro ex drinks..
this proves how ridiculous ireland has become and how the boom has killed our social fabric...
i think a nice hard recession would make people cop on and the best side effect would be that FF can burn slowly on the barbie and by the time the next election comes they will be torn apart at the ballot..
it's not really their fault but once they took credit for the boom, they'll have to take the blame for the crash...

[Supermanpolitician]

If you take the long term view here - this is arguably the best thing to happen to Ireland since independence.....
i think a nice hard recession would make people cop on and the best side effect would be that FF can burn slowly on the barbie and by the time the next election comes they will be torn apart at the ballot..
it's not really their fault but once they took credit for the boom, they'll have to take the blame for the crash...

You want a recession? This is not an anti-FF thread.

I am glad that you live in a place you like, but please don't confuse my anti-FF sentiment for a longing for recession. Recession is never good. The heart ache, the banks phoning up warning about mortgage payments, etc. No family should have to go through that and your triumphalist approach does not serve this debate well. I love my country and the last thing I want to see is my friends and fellow country men go through what my family went through.

Back to the debate on house prices, the question is, are we screwed?

[tumeltyni]

I don't believe that a land cap would have worked; however a rent cap (per sq m) would have.. lets face it.. buy to let caused all the problems.. greedy landlords hiking rents, forcing people to buy as rent became ridiculously high (especially in dublin)..
despite the wealth generated in ireland, the standard of living is terribly bad..

What are you on? Rent hadn't increased much at all for years, this is the first year it has increased much and that's because people have been holding off on buying. Rent caps would have made no difference.

[feargach]

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/thousands-in-serious-trouble-on-home-loans-995610.html

The government have come out saying that the housing market is "readjusting". Something has to be pretty f*cked before FF ever admit to anything.

There is absolutely no consolation in saying I told you so. I heard Batt O'Keeffe on "Morning Ireland" this morning (in between hos dog barking). He as much as said, well it's your own fault for not exercising caution.

It's gone down 1% every month for the last 3 while payments for houses have gone up hugely this year.

[MookieBaylock]

i think a sharp bloody recession is exactly what ireland needs to make people cop on and to eradicate the greed and national immaturity we have seen. people on big salaries are living from pay cheque to pay cheque.. this is bananas..

to answer your question, yes we are screwed, there will be a massive flight of capital now as the rich seek to dump their assets in places like germany and switzerland.. the poles will all feck off to london as there will be no work for them and the young irish will go with them - this time as equals..
we totally messed it up, through arrogance and a lack of class...

recession can be cleansing - bring it on!!

[bobbysands81]

Rent has gone up 11.9% in the last 12 months (I think, not 100% sure but not far off if wrong).

In the previous 5 years rent has only gone up a few percentage points, it was decreasing for a few years. Now that interest rates are rising and capital appreciation is no longer increasing rents will rise, and probably quite a bit in the coming year or so.

Can anyone see there NOT being a recession in the future?

[irishpeoplearewhingers]

this is a blessing in disguise if it is handled well

[tumeltyni]

I agree. My point is that MB's statement that increasing house prices were due to greedy landlords hiking rents was complete rubbish.

[MookieBaylock]

I don't believe that a land cap would have worked; however a rent cap (per sq m) would have.. lets face it.. buy to let caused all the problems.. greedy landlords hiking rents, forcing people to buy as rent became ridiculously high (especially in dublin)..
despite the wealth generated in ireland, the standard of living is terribly bad..

What are you on? Rent hadn't increased much at all for years, this is the first year it has increased much and that's because people have been holding off on buying. Rent caps would have made no difference.

so you think 1400 euro for a 42 sq m flat in the docklands is a fair price?? or 2000 for 70 sq m in rathgar is fair? are you mad?? what i am saying is that rents were always too high since the mid 90's.. this ruled out long term renting for most, thereby forcing them into the mortgage trap..
a serious tax on second and third properties would have probably been better..
company owned rental blocks, a la Germany and Austria, work better than an individual landlord system.. that was a huge mess up..