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  1. #1381
    invalidangel invalidangel is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dublin 4 View Post
    Lying scum - the ratio on Myhome clearly shows decreases wiping the floor with increases
    The ratios mean nothing. You need to take each house individually and asses it vs. the register and its size, condition and other attributes. Please stop looking at asking prices we all know they mean very little.

    More decreases than increases means just that. You are not seeing the true market.
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  2. #1382
    Dublin 4 Dublin 4 is offline
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    Lyin scum - increase to decrease ratio dictates trend & includes individual property specifics.

    Your selection of exceptions which prove the rule mean nothing - hence the drops....
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  3. #1383
    Johnnybaii Johnnybaii is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rebel_Yell View Post
    +1

    The boy is a little unhinged methinks. But that's the problem with public anonymous forums isn't it. Politics.ie needs to adopt a gun control approach - perform a background check to ensure that those with mental stability issues are not provided with access to devices that they clearly are incapable of using reasonably, like keyboards.

    You still looking Johnny? I have started to track asking prices versus selling prices for the last three months in C4. It's looking to me like prices are still dropping though it is converging and older houses in decent nick are close to, at, or above asking prices. There are micro-geographies at play here. A house in Belmount will sell for the asking, a house in Pic-du-Jer will be a bit below.
    Yes sir, still in the market and still looking but very very little around as Iím sure you have seen yourself.

    Slightly miffed that a couple of places I would have been very happy with sold last year for considerably less than the advertised asking price Ė I hadnít got involved in the bidding as I didnít think they would be in my budget.

    Iím far from panicking though, the slide will resume with the repossessions Ė friends in Estate Agents tell me there is stockpile building up in the background as the banks move on their BTL arrears Ė and they assure me this is not all dross a la Allsops stuff.

    What worries me (and maybe Iím completely overreacting here) but I think there will be a very difficult point approaching for people like me when the repossessions start, as the properties come on the market and begin to clear pent up demand prices will resume their dip, this will affect the stability of the Ďpillarí banks and their capitalization ratios as they have to start marking to market and accepting losses. This will be the beginning - I believe of Bailout 2 - judging by recent events in Greece whatís to say Bailout 2 wonít also herald Deposit Grab 1 by the Irish state?

    Flight of fancy? I donít think so. A precedent has been set in Greece and the Pensions Levy was essentially the same thing, a grab on private wealth in order to generate funds.
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  4. #1384
    Dublin 4 Dublin 4 is offline
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    So we've a schizo "lookin around for property" whilst fearing a "Deposit Grab"
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  5. #1385
    Johnnybaii Johnnybaii is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dublin 4 View Post
    So we've a schizo "lookin around for property" whilst fearing a "Deposit Grab"
    I have the cash and don't want it outside Ireland + i need somewhere to live, what exactly would you suggest?

    I buy a home now and I can keep it for life hopefully, it loses another 10/20%? Doesn't bother me. I leave that money in BOI, An Post, Gold? I could get wiped out.
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  6. #1386
    Dublin 4 Dublin 4 is offline
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    After yer guff- ya can feck of for free advice.

    Investing in an admitted potential loss of 20% & you have the cheek to insult others
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  7. #1387
    Cassandra Syndrome Cassandra Syndrome is offline
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    FROM 19th MARCH LAST YEAR ON THIS THREAD

    Quote Originally Posted by Cassandra Syndrome View Post


    We have up to 300,000 excess of housing units to begin with.

    On the demand side we have,

    1. Falling Real Disposable Incomes
    2. Decreasing population
    3. Continuing Credit Crunch
    4. Substitution Effect in opting for rentals
    5. Changing Behavioural traits such as multi-generation co-habituation
    6. Perceived continuing fall in prices in the foreseeable future.

    All these factors contrive to limit the maximum level that buyers can make to buy a house. We are returning to levels of 2 to 3 times Gross national Income per member of the labour force. 2.5 is the consistent multiple up until 1999 until all hell broke loose and reached 6 by 2007. Today 2.5 works out at Ä150,000 average house price. This implies another 20% to 25% drop on average.

    So D3 has dramatically dropped to D2 in the graph above.

    On the Supply Side.

    1. Chronic over supply of vacant properties, possibly 20% of housing stock.
    2. The current equilibrium has an artificial high price floor from NAMA interference. This has a finite timeline.
    3. Non NAMA properties continue to liquidate causing downside pressure on prices.

    The minimum level of which sellers are will to sell is still to high and there is a bidless market (Price P3 above). Also more properties need to be released to clear the housing stock. S2 needs to go out to S1 and prices need to plummet to clear the market.

    Giving the extraordinary supply side issue in this country coupled with the badly hampered demand side, imo the natural equilibrium for this vast housing stock is in the 5 figures, somewhere between Ä80,000 and Ä100,000 (below P1 above, somewhere along D3 demand curve). From this final bottom, and where there is a clearing price, house prices will only begin to increase and will be simply used as places to shelter and enjoy life rather than insane tools of speculation. P1 above shows the post market clearance average price were the quantity of housing stock reduces as S2 quantities are sold.
    So we can either believe in invalidangel's self serving cognitive biased distorted view on reality, or we can follow one of the time tested fundamentals of economics, the Law of Supply and Demand.
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  8. #1388
    Howya Howya is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dublin 4 View Post
    So we've a schizo "lookin around for property" whilst fearing a "Deposit Grab"

    And so to avoid a deposit grab, he buys a property but Bailout 2 would likely see an increase in property tax....you can run but you can't hide....
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  9. #1389
    Dublin 4 Dublin 4 is offline
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    TBTG for some sane posters here again
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  10. #1390
    invalidangel invalidangel is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dublin 4 View Post
    Lyin scum - increase to decrease ratio dictates trend & includes individual property specifics.

    Your selection of exceptions which prove the rule mean nothing - hence the drops....
    I am tempted to go through each individually to show you how markets in small areas are made up completely of exceptions. You don't see it until you narrow your search and start bidding. If I have time this evening I will go through each one.
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