Everyone loves someone else to make a prediction. It's great fun to watch them fall flat on their face. Schadenfreude is delicious. So this is my gift to you all. In addition, if you are that bloke I heard about who actually still has money, this is an even bigger gift.
A functioning Property Market needs three things, Sellers, Buyers and Finance.
1. SELLERS; We have Sellers, lots and lots of them.
2. BUYERS; Hands up who wants to rent forever? No? We just don't do that, do we? We're not Central European. (Yet!). Very few people have bought a house in the past two to three years. I think it's safe to say we have been holding back. We have been building a backlog of Buyers. There has never been as many Renters than there is now, rents have stayed strong in response. But people want their own house. We move out of home, we get married, we have kids. People want houses and they want to own them. We have three years worth of normal demand for house purchases built up, waiting to buy. But they want two things, confidence that we're near the bottom and finance.
Are we at the bottom? I don't know but the recent Allsops Sales indicate that there are three reasons to think so. Other Housing Bubbles that burst typically produce a 50% price drop. We have now realise that we've had a 57% drop. Houses are now selling for less than it'd cost to build them in a lot of places. Rental yields on new property purchases are now hugely lucrative and out of kilter with a normal supply/demand property Market. Bottom line, as an investor it's too cheap not to buy a rental property now.
3. FINANCE; Even if you wanted to buy, banks have no money to lend, right? €1Trillion has been pumped into banks by the ECB in the last six months at 1%. A lot was hoovered up fixing black holes in their balance sheets but a lot more is looking for a home. Our banks were completely recapitalized by the taxpayer. They have money. Confidence that Ireland will not leave the Euro or fail further is now building abroad. The Trackers will soon be taken off Irish Banks books too. Employment levels are stable, so if you have a job you're probably going to keep it. Banks have been terrified to lend in case the borrower lost their job and/or prices dropped leaving them with more negative equity bad debts to take on but we're now at or near the bottom price wise as explained above. So the finance is in place and the confidence is just about there for banks to actually lend it.
So, I think Prices have over corrected as explained above so once Finance comes back the Three Year Backlog of Demand will descend on the Market. And once we see others getting a bargain what will happen? Boom. Prices will jump to correct the Rental Yield anomaly and perennially popular locations will jump first and most. So, my tip, buy a three bed semi in a nice suburb.
you are a dope!
Ratings agency Fitch expects house prices in Ireland to decline by a further 20% from current levels.
In its latest residential mortgage briefing Fitch outlines what it refers to as "substantial concerns" for the peripheral eurozone markets of Spain, Portugal, Greece, Ireland and Italy.
"Fitch anticipates depressed mortgage lending, continued declines in house prices and pressure on incomes and consumer confidence," it said.
The ratings agency said that access to mortgage lending will continue to hamper property markets in a number of countries, including Ireland.
"Banks maintain strict underwriting guidelines and are strongly restricted in their willingness and ability to lend, especially in peripheral eurozone countries," it said.
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