ESRI get their figures all wrong!

[kerrynorth]

The ESRI built into their growth forecast assumptions that there would be 82000 houses built in 07 and 76000 in 08. Whatever about this years figures next years look widely optimistic with the June housing starts published today. Basically the June housing starts notified fell from 7900 in June 06 to just over 3000 in 07. On the basis of these figures you could gague the 2008 house build as likely to be somewhere around 40-50000 but certainly not anywhere near 76000.

The ESRI based there 3.7% growth figure on 76000, even if we take the upper figure of 50000 then all other things being equal this would mean growth next year of 1% or less!

And instead of 25000 jobs being added to the economy next year we will see overall employment contract particuarly as the government will have to reign in spending. This will be the first contraction in employment for over 15 years.

Also with a 39% fall in May and 61% in June in housing starts we should see unemployment noticely taking off very shortly and certainly by the autumn.

The May and June figures combined indicate a trend that the soothsayers of the ESRI seem to have ignored.

[meriwether]

I thought you'd have topped yourself by now KN.

[kerrynorth]

I thought you'd have topped yourself by now KN.

......................now where did I put that rope!

[drbob1972]

I thought you'd have topped yourself by now KN.

oblivously wasn't listening to Bertie yesterday i guess

[Sidewinder]

I've been trying to tell people that the figures being bandied about for house completions in 07 and 08 - and the economic growth and public spending projections based on them - are just insane for months.

The usual suspects are still talking about 70-75,000 completions for 07. I think it'll be much lower, and made a prediction it could be as low as 54,000 last month. Unemployment, especially in the construction trade, will start to soar in August.

[kerrynorth]

Right on cue. Unemployment rose sharply by 12353 in June to 166k even on seasonally adjusted figures this is a rise of 3600 in one month.

[Supermanpolitician]

Come on lads, let's not talk down the economy by looking at the facts!

[rockofcashel]

This wil probably end up as FF's greatest spin of all time.

Anyone with a screed of economic knowledge would have and did know that economically Ireland was in for a rough patch over the next couple of years. FF dragged the Greens into a Government that they weren't needed in, and does anyone want to take bets, that when their councillors are explaining the economic difficulties on doorsteps in 2009, it will be the Greens that will get it in the neck for wrecking the economy.

I don't want to be a doom-monger, nor say "I told you so", but I sincerely hope that the economic downturn will not be a deep and lasting one, as many many Irish people could have a very tough decade in front of them

[meriwether]

Xerox have let 30 people go in Dundalk today, cheaper outsourcing to be found elsewhere.

[kerrynorth]

Eh, 2 figures (2 months of data) doesnt equal a trend. Its like asking 2 people on the street how old they are, and extrapolating that the average age of an Irish person is 12.

Other information needs to be used to shore up that prediction. The concrete industry gave a warning recently about a drop in their order book, indicating a drop in planned new builds.

Well Andrew, there is a real qualitative difference between asking a question of 2 people out of 4million (1 in 2 million) and looking at 2 monthly figures (1 in 6) that also happen to be consecitive and part of a progressingly deepening 6 month trend.......now off with you to Uncle Bertie to collect your fiver and a pat on the head!