Trade Surplus Up

[irishpeoplearewhingers]

Just an update on the trading situation.
Basically:
April's exports are down slightly (2%) while imports are down a lot (16%);
The monthly trade surplus is up from 2.28 billion to 2.95 billion;
On a quarterly basis, both imports and exprots were up 6%, giving us a quarterly surplus of about 6.3 billion.
For some reason, our quarterly exports to Swizerland increased by over 70%, while the US sold us 28% more.

http://www.rte.ie/business/2007/0619/cso.html

Still holding our own, but we really should be taking our competitiveness more seriously.

[Sidewinder]

Trade surplus is only up because of the sharp fall in imports. However, the Q1 figures show no change on the year in the trade balance, with both imports and exports up 6%. Could be just monthly noise...or could the sharp fall in imports be a sign of reduced consumer spending? Are the interest hikes beginning to have an effect?

[irishpeoplearewhingers]

I imagine rate hikes are beginning to bite. Dan McLaughlin reckons we may be at a key point in the cycle- German growth is slowing and bank lending is down. Have not heard much about M3 growth though.

[Sidewinder]

Dan McLaughlin's a clown.

M3 growth has moderated slightly but still over 10%. I'm still expecting another 3 to 5 rises in next 12 months on current data, which is about as far as you can realistically forecast.

However, if the monetary growth, food shortages, oil shortages, commodity price surges and asset bubbles continue unabated over that 12 months, then rates will have a lot further to go yet.

My personal critical indicator is the BoJ rate - or to be more precise, the differential between BoJ and Fed/BoE/ECB rates.

[irishpeoplearewhingers]

The Fed have paused for now. Should be interesting to see what the BoE come up with.

[Sidewinder]

The Fed are paused because they can't agree on whether to hyperinflate or bust their economy. Rock and a hard place. I think Bernanke's instincts are to inflate, in which case (if he wins the internal war) they'll cut....but the ECB won't be following them down. They made that mistake in 2001 and won't be repeating it. God knows what's going on in the BoE, it's clear as mud in London.

[irishpeoplearewhingers]

I am not sure about the Brits either. I am not sure about Bernanke's insticnts, but I am pretty sure they are ************************************ whatever way they go. Personally, I'd bite the bullet because they cannot keep on going the way they have been. Of course, that's easy for me to say, what with me not having to live there.

[HP]

You may not live there, but if they go down we'll be following soon after.

[freedomlover]

In the first 4 months of 2007 exports are up by 7.8% in value, imports are up by 5.9% in value and the trade surplus is up by 12.7% in value. Volume increases for exports are probably much higher because export prices are lower than a year ago. In Dec 2006, the most recent month for which figures are available, export prices were 4.5% lower than in Dec 2005 - this reflects the strength of the euro v the dollar. So, its probable that the volume increase for exports in the first 4 months of 2007 is around 12.5%. The trend seems to be accelerating. In April 2007 the value of exports was up by 14% compared with April 2006, implying a volume increase of close to 20%. This is in line with the figures for manufacturing output which showed a rise of 13% in the first 4 months of 2007 compared with 2006. There is no sign of any slackening in consumer demand. The volume of retail sales was up by 8% in April compared with 2006 and new car sales in May were up by around 15%. Its obvious that GDP growth figures for the first half of 2007 are going to be extremely high, quite probably the highest since the late 1990s. How the doom-mongers explain them will be very interesting.

[HanleyS]

That exports to Switzerland sounds suspicious. Could it be a single transaction? i.e. do transactions between units of a multinational from one country to another count as imports/exports.