Basically hw wrote an article in todays Indo which suggests that Eurozone growth may have peaked and that the current cycle of rising rates may be close to an end. Let's hope so (but let's not get wildly optimistic either).
http://www.independent.ie/business/euro ... 01414.html
The political establishment lacks both vision and courage.
Desperate Dan and Comical Austin have been saying "one more and it's done and dusted" after every interest rate rise for the last 2 years! How fecking gullible are you! The man has no credibility!
M3 growth still wildly out of control. Commodity prices surging worldwide. Food shortages further driving inflation. Labour markets throughout Europe tightening. Peak oil passed. A vast pool of excess liquidity in the derivatives markets. Asset bubbles everywhere. And continuing strong GNP growth nearly everywhere in Europe.
And you think ECB rates have peaked, on the say-so of a known charlatan with an appallingly, laughably, bad track record?
Je suis un loo-lah
I do not think they have peaked, but it seems that German growth is slowing. As for asset bubbles, they burst and they usually do so in a rapid manner- would you buy shares now? There is increased talk of overheating in the world economy, especially in Asia. As for commodities, they are sensitive to geo-political risk and fluctuate wildly. Slowing growth, as we are seeing in the US and Germany, could easily bring those prices down. What often happens with interest rates is that they take a while to kick in and then- bang! I don't know which to fear more, more hikes or a situation that calls for cuts.
The political establishment lacks both vision and courage.
Slower growth in the US or Germany is going to do squat for massive commodity & food demands from BRIC...some asset bubbles burst quickly, some deflate slowly, depending on the liquidity of the asset.
The "bang!" I'm expecting is in the derivatives & exotics markets, most likely triggered by a BoJ rise cutting off the Yen carry trade flow of liquidity. Rates will keep rising till then.
Je suis un loo-lah
The carry trade has been looking shaky as of late, and as you say, this could be pretty bad for those on the other end of the contract. The US is looking a bit shaky and the latest comments from Muto are interesting:
http://www.forbes.com/business/feeds/af ... 38207.html
Essentially, he is saying that 2% growth (which they have been having recently) may lead to inflationary conditions.
As for assets/commodities, this is looking decidedly dodgy. Most Chinese growth is as a result of fixed-asset investment- an increase in the value of the RMB coupled with the newly annoucned scrapping of export tax rebates might make a lot of those assets redundant. This has to make a dent in oil demand.
The political establishment lacks both vision and courage.
If he keeps saying it often enough - eventually he will be right.Originally Posted by Sidewinder
Desperate Dan and Comical Austin have been saying "one more and it's done and dusted" after every interest rate rise for the last 2 years! How fecking gullible are you! The man has no credibility!
Dan McLaughlin is so heavily invested in his own interests, I would not touch his forecasts with a sterilised barge pole.
99% of stuff you hear form Dan, his fellow 'chief economists' , the estate agencies and the developers is economic laura ashley wallpaper.
Under Review.
Line 2.
The writing's on the wall. A mini version of the dotcom bubble, tulip mania. Hold on to your semi-d.
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