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Thread: May Exchequer Returns

  1. #21
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    Cowen would have learnt this trick as a spotty young bogman in Ogra listening to Martin O'Donoghue trying to blame the carnage caused by the FF 1977 manifesto on Oil.

    Reminiscent of that other FF, the Famous Five. "We'd have gotten away with it too, if it wasn't for thsoe pesky Arabs"!

  2. #22
    Politics.ie Regular Akrasia's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Anorakphobia
    Reminiscent of that other FF, the Famous Five. "We'd have gotten away with it too, if it wasn't for thsoe pesky Arabs"!
    That was Scooby Doo, But i think Shaggy Ahern is pretty apt.
    Actual morality is doing what is right regardless of what you're told. Religious morality is doing what you're told, regardless of if it's right.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rockyracoon
    Excuse the ignorance everybody. Are these data available on-line or do you have to subscribe to a service? Thanks for any answers.

    Btw I still don't think everything is gloom and doom. At lot of the spending was probably on roads, etc. It was manic here before the election. Every by-road was being dug up and tarmaced. Now there is no work being done at all. Plus this money spent is recycled into the economy via wages. etc.
    Its all freely available from the Dept.'s website www.finance.gov.ie under exchequer statements.

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Coles
    Quote Originally Posted by DSCH
    Quote Originally Posted by Sidewinder
    Public spending accelerated by 23% in the first half of the year. Basically the election was bought. Again.

    We'll be heavily in deficit by autumn, and there'll be a wide range of large public-spending cutbacks. The housing market will have collapsed, the construction industry will be in freefall with very few new starts happening for the rest of this year, 4 or 5 major FDI companies will announce huge job cuts, ECB rates will be clearly signalled to be heading for 5%, inflation will remain stubbornly way too high despite the collapse in consumer spending, and unemployment will be surging upwards.
    Like, the Cruiser you've been predicting the end of the world for some time.

    Economic collapse by the Autumn then.
    It's a brave prediction, but Sidewinder has called it right so far.
    Sidewinder has in racing parlance 'form' alright. He brought me around to his view on interest rate policy at the begining of the year. Note how all the usual industry commentators keep saying at every ECB rate rise that there maybe one more: they have been saying that for the 4 or 5 rate increases!

  5. #25
    Politics.ie Member FutureTaoiseach's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nuj
    Quote Originally Posted by FutureTaoiseach
    In the context of the US and Chinese slowdown and our exposure to the international economy - greater arguably than the economy of any other country on the planet - this current govt cannot be faulted on this issue.
    What slowdowns? Chinese GDP, most recent numbers, showed 11.1% growth versus a prior 10.4%. The US had a housing-induced slowdown from 3.1% to 1.9% (all figures per annum) in Q1 2007. It is widely expected to have rebounded in Q2.

    Add to this the pick-up in growth within the Eurozone - strong enough growth to warrant the current round of monetary tightening from the ECB - and you cannot possibly talk of an international economic slowdown.

    The current government has a lot to answer for in its economic management - inflation and pump-priming being the two main areas.

    Listening to Cowan's pre-election explanation of Ireland's high inflation rate being due to oil, and therefore outside his control, go unchallenged made me ill. Oil prices have risen everywhere in the EU by the same pre-tax amount - it's an internationally traded commodity, for God's sake.

    Why then is Ireland's CPI running at over double that of our Eurozone partners?
    My reference to the Chinese economy should be seen in the context of the stock-market declines consequent on growing fears about that economy. In turn they are playing a role in our stock-market declines.

  6. #26
    nuj
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    Quote Originally Posted by FutureTaoiseach
    My reference to the Chinese economy should be seen in the context of the stock-market declines consequent on growing fears about that economy. In turn they are playing a role in our stock-market declines.
    1)Then you should have said so.

    2) The Shanghai SE Index is up 41% ytd, the Shenzhen Index is up 97.28% ytd. Recent, partly-reversed, falls have been due to initial (and continuing) over-valuation and changes in share-dealing taxes.

    3) What have stock market declines got to do with anything? Nobody's blamed the current government for them. It's their management of the economy. not the performance of the bloody ISEQ, that's at issue.
    "All employment is outright robbery" says Cael, the voice of reason

  7. #27
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    The economy is not ************************************ and we are not heading for disaster.....yet. We still export more than we import and all the major indicators point to continued expansion, albeit at a slower pace. Have some sense of proportion.
    However, the fact remains that we are in need of economic restructuring- our available pool of skills does not match the needs of the labour market, as can be seen from the massive number of IT vacancies. What is needed right now is clear thinking, not politically motivated panic.
    The political establishment lacks both vision and courage.

  8. #28
    Politics.ie Regular Akrasia's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by irishpeoplearewhingers
    The economy is not ************************************ and we are not heading for disaster.....yet. We still export more than we import and all the major indicators point to continued expansion, albeit at a slower pace. Have some sense of proportion.
    However, the fact remains that we are in need of economic restructuring- our available pool of skills does not match the needs of the labour market, as can be seen from the massive number of IT vacancies. What is needed right now is clear thinking, not politically motivated panic.
    Have you ever heard of transfer pricing?
    Many irish economists (including David McWilliams) will proudly claim that Irish multinationals make more profits in Ireland than anywhere else in the world. They will also claim that the Irish people have the highest productivity growth in Europe. These aren't because we're working so much harder (although working hours have increased and we are undoubtedly increasing our output). These economic statistics only tell the story of Global corporate tax avoidance.

    We export more than we import because MNCs pay below true cost for imports to their own subsidiaries, and then export components at an exaggerated price thereby allowing more of their profits to arise in Ireland's low tax environment.

    In 2004 Microsoft alone declared 3.8 billion in profits from their Irish operations. Last year they changed two of their Irish companies to unlimited companies in order to avoid having to file public accounts so they can continue or increase their transfer pricing arrangements in the face of changing U.S. regulations. It is likely that the tax avoidance (legal but immoral) is shifting towards tax evasion (illegal) and if the regulations start to be applied, then Ireland might very suddenly experience a very sudden balance of trade deficit and a huge drop in Corporate tax receipts

    Last November, The Wall Street Journal wrote that "a law firm's office on a quiet downtown street [in Dublin, Ireland ] houses an obscure subsidiary of Microsoft Corp. that helps the computer giant shave at least $500 million from its annual tax bill. The four-year-old subsidiary, Round Island One Ltd., has a thin roster of employees but controls more than $16 billion in Microsoft assets. Virtually unknown in Ireland, on paper it has quickly become one of the country's biggest companies, with gross profits of nearly $9 billion in 2004."
    http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusiness ... 5150.shtml
    Actual morality is doing what is right regardless of what you're told. Religious morality is doing what you're told, regardless of if it's right.

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by kerrynorth
    Quote Originally Posted by rockyracoon
    Excuse the ignorance everybody. Are these data available on-line or do you have to subscribe to a service? Thanks for any answers.

    Its all freely available from the Dept.'s website www.finance.gov.ie under exchequer statements.
    Thanking you. Also read Davy and Ulster Bank housing reports. I think i'd better upskill. Us construction workers are going to be in for a rough ride for quite some time.
    A society of sheep must in time beget a government of wolves. (B. de Jouvenel)

  10. #30
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    [quote="irishpeoplearewhingers"]The economy is not ************************************ and we are not heading for disaster.....yet. We still export more than we import and all the major indicators point to continued expansion, albeit at a slower pace. Have some sense of proportion.
    However, the fact remains that we are in need of economic restructuring- our available pool of skills does not match the needs of the labour market, as can be seen from the massive number of IT vacancies. [color=red]What is needed right now is clear thinking, not politically motivated panic.[/[/color]quote]

    What sort of useless statement is this?
    Just a soundbite like "let's all roll up the sleeves and stop complaining".

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