The economic consequences of post-peak oil

[feargach]

Every year, the world uses a cubic mile of oil. That´s equivalent to the power output of 2500 nuke power stations.

It´s worth everyone´s while (by this, of course, I mean only the reality-based community, the ones who assume that the world´s scientists are probably not in a vast conspiracy to hoodwink the masses) to look at sites like The Oil Drum | Discussions about Energy and Our Future, to inform themselves about peak oil.

The whole point of it is that, once the peak is behind us, the vast sustained exponential growth in the use of fossil fuels will have to stop.

The truly scary point about this is the number of genuinely intelligent, practical people who imagine that BAU (business as usual) could continue after peak oil, simply by substituting electricity for petroleum.

That´s not good, because if oil gets scarce, we in the human race will have a very hard time generating enough electricity to replace oil energy.

For one thing, generating electricity requires a lot of copper. How is copper mined? With immense trucks nearly 40m tall and 50m long. Can those trucks run on electricity if the oil they use gets scarce? Nope. Ooops.

That´s just one of millions of paradoxes that relate to managing to bring about a transition from today´s BAU to the post-peak economy. Once you look carefully at how hard it is to carry out today´s activities without cheap abundant petroleum, you start to realise how much harder we need to think this stuff through. So let´s do it.

[RobertW]

This is covered very well and entertaining by the comedian/political commentator Robert Newman in "The History of Oil (www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQhhrzHKMhI) where he bases his information of a book about a post-peak oil world called "The Party's Over" by Richard Heniberg - An excellent book which I've read.

[West-Cork]

I don't think anyone has solid answers/solutions to this yet feargach. I'm wondering if people are moving more towards the idea of just letting nature balance things out in the longer term; despite the pain that will entail.

As someone once said, we're living in the 'age of convenient energy'.

[feargach]

I don't think anyone has solid answers/solutions to this yet feargach. I'm wondering if people are moving more towards the idea of just letting nature balance things out in the longer term; despite the pain that will entail.

As someone once said, we're living in the 'age of convenient energy'.

I am a fierce opponent of "just letting nature balance things out" because I reckon that nature would achieve that goal via famine, pestilence and violence. All three things are as natural as rain, and all are associated with large-scale resource-scarcity-driven disruptions to complex resource-hungry societies.

For example I would refer you to the collapse of the Roman empire, and the falls of all the dynasties in Chinese history. And more recently with the fall of the USSR.

So just letting that happen is really really not OK with me. I realise that it is nature´s way, but I´d still like us to take a go at managing things so that it doesn´t pan out that way.

[CanRonPaulSavetheUS]

These threads should be closed. There is no shortage of oil whatsoever. The glut has driven the price down to 85 dollars a barrel today

[The Field Marshal]

Every year, the world uses a cubic mile of oil. That´s equivalent to the power output of 2500 nuke power stations.

It´s worth everyone´s while (by this, of course, I mean only the reality-based community, the ones who assume that the world´s scientists are probably not in a vast conspiracy to hoodwink the masses) to look at sites like The Oil Drum | Discussions about Energy and Our Future, to inform themselves about peak oil.

The whole point of it is that, once the peak is behind us, the vast sustained exponential growth in the use of fossil fuels will have to stop.

The truly scary point about this is the number of genuinely intelligent, practical people who imagine that BAU (business as usual) could continue after peak oil, simply by substituting electricity for petroleum.

That´s not good, because if oil gets scarce, we in the human race will have a very hard time generating enough electricity to replace oil energy.

For one thing, generating electricity requires a lot of copper. How is copper mined? With immense trucks nearly 40m tall and 50m long. Can those trucks run on electricity if the oil they use gets scarce? Nope. Ooops.

That´s just one of millions of paradoxes that relate to managing to bring about a transition from today´s BAU to the post-peak economy. Once you look carefully at how hard it is to carry out today´s activities without cheap abundant petroleum, you start to realise how much harder we need to think this stuff through. So let´s do it.

Do what ?
A cubic mile of crude oil is nothing.
The earths a big place with plenty of undiscovered oil that must be used.

Im looking forward to the devloping economies producing millions of extra automobiles and thousands of miles of new roads so the standards of their peoples can improve.

When all these new roads are build it will also facilitate me driving on them.

Your anti progressive in your outlook if you dont mind me saying so.

---

[seanmacc]

Aluminium, steel and titanium can work as adequate substitutes for copper. There are millions tons of copper in the ground all over the world that should be replaced with fibre optics. The copper shortage is not as severe as some would make out.

I've doubts about the peak oil theories. At the end of the day, peak oil theory and global warming being caused by CO2 only serve to enrich the oil companies all the more.

[Mossy Heneberry]

We're not running out of oil... get over yourself.

[wombat]

I've doubts about the peak oil theories.

As someone said, the Stone Age did not end because we ran out of stones and the oil age won't end because we run out of oil, technology changes.

[GreenIsGood]

Peak oil hysterics try to peddle the idea that the world is running out of energy. It is not.

It is true that we need oil for ICE based transport and that oil production is on a broad plateau. When the price increases, it become economic to extract more oil. This process leaves plenty of time for an orderly, market price-driven transition to alternative fuels for transport.

This company thinks thorium is a potential fuel. WARNING: This article refers to new technologies which Peak Oil apocalypse porn merchants may find upsetting.

8 grams of thorium could replace gasoline in cars | Geek.com