Spending slowdown to hit growth

[jjcarroll]

Economic growth is set to slow next year, as a result of reduced consumer spending after SSIAs have matured.

AIB Global Treasury is predicting growth will be 3.7% next year compared to 5% this year.

This forecast is one of the lowest predications for the economy by any commentator.
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It predicts that less houses will be built than this year, fewer jobs will be created and growth in consumer spending will be lower.

Overall, that will lead to slower growth in the economy, according to AIB.

RTE News

The end is nigh!

[dub006]

The banks et al are now preparing the population for hard times ahead by
publishing economic forecasts which will gradually deteriorate.
This will deflect anger and blame from them as the people will be acclimatised gradually to the downturn.

They will use words such as slowdown, tightening credit, moderation of demand instead of crash,credit freeze, collapse in demand etc.

This was a false economy .Economic growth was spurred by immigration.
Productivity per worker has remained static or declined.
gross national income per head is static and set to decline.

The benefits of this economy went to the top 20 %.Therefore The distribution of national income means that for most people their individual growth is in decline .

[Seos]

The banks et al are now preparing the population for hard times ahead by
publishing economic forecasts which will gradually deteriorate.
This will deflect anger and blame from them as the people will be acclimatised gradually to the downturn.

Why would people blame the banks?

They will use words such as slowdown, tightening credit, moderation of demand instead of crash,credit freeze, collapse in demand etc.

Probably because it is a slowdown not a crash, if it's still growth it's a slowdown, if not it's a reccesion. Who would use the term credit freeze? And it's a moderation of demand next year, collapsing demand would be exetreme. The terms you suggest they use are sensationalist and inaccurate.

This was a false economy. Economic growth was spurred by immigration.
Productivity per worker has remained static or declined.
gross national income per head is static and set to decline.

The benefits of this economy went to the top 20 %.Therefore The distribution of national income means that for most people their individual growth is in decline .

It's not a false economy, it's an economy with a large bit of it's value determined by people's expectations.

[MontgomeryClift]

How the predictions are changing: 5% -> 4.5% -> 3.7% - What is that if not a trend?

And this is AIB. They're in the business of selling credit on the basis of positive predictions. I'm wondering why we take their word on anything. I mean, you don't ask anybody for their views on a thing when they have something to gain by giving only one kind of answer.

[cooperation]

The property market in spain has crashed.
The banks are selling off their property.
The irish property market has slowed.
The dollar may devalue.
The constuction firms are laying people off, i.e. Adlantic.

Not looking good.

[factual]

How the predictions are changing: 5% -> 4.5% -> 3.7% - What is that if not a trend?

And this is AIB. They're in the business of selling credit on the basis of positive predictions. I'm wondering why we take their word on anything. I mean, you don't ask anybody for their views on a thing when they have something to gain by giving only one kind of answer.

3.7 is actually still not a bad rate of growth.

And how the wealth is distributed is important too. Hopefully we will have a little more emphasis on that from now on.