Exchequer Statement August 2010 - Forecast

[Cassandra Syndrome]

So Lennie reckons there is going to be a wonderful Exchequer statement tomorrow?

We'll see. Here's my diazepam free forecast.

Bottom line is the budget deficit may increase from 10 Billion to over 12 Billion for the month.

Current Tax Revenue will be down 10% on year, but of course as Sean Whelan will say will broadly in line of expectations.

Turning the Corner.

YEAR TO DATE
TO 31ST AUGUST 2010

CURRENT TAX REVENUE - FIGURES IN THOUSANDS '000S

Customs 141,994.00
Excise Duty 2,872,347.00
Capital Gains Tax 115,670.00
Capital Acquisitions Tax 163,184.40
Stamp Duty 354,561.65
Income Tax 6,639,568.46
Corporation Tax 1,946,674.00
Valued Added Tax 6,639,773.40
Training Levy 487.00
Unallocated Tax Receipts 25,413.00

18,899,672.91

CURRENT NON TAX REVENUE

Surplus Income Central Bank Surplus Income 704,866
National Lottery Surplus 135,000
Marathon Petroleum Ireland Ltd 3,012
Central Bank Issue of Coins 0
Collector General Surplus 1,112
Interest on Loans Local Loans Fund 3,207
Other Advances 4,786
Dividends Bord Gais Eireann 0
ESB 0
Bord Na Mona 0
Dublin Port Company 5,500
Ulysses Wind Down 140,000
Coillte Teoranta 2,000
Dublin Airport Authority Dividend 3,000
Other Receipts Property Registration Authority Fees 18,600
Motoring Fines 8,004
NDFA Act 0
Other Receipts 26,608
Pension Levy 6,281
Miscellaneous 21,708

1,083,684
CAPITAL RECEIPTS
EU Receipts Cohesian Fund Receipts 37,000.00
European Regional Development Fund 50,228.00
EIB-EEA Financial Mechanism 0.00
Trans European Network 2,000.00
Other EU Receipts 16.00
Loan Repayments Local Loans 6,831.00
FEOGA Guarantee 790,000.00
FEOGA Intervention 0.00
Other Loans 0.00
Other Receipts Insurance Acts 0.00
Carbon Fund 36,147.00
Sale of State Property 10,000.00
IDA Ireland 33.00
Enterprise Ireland 0.00
FAS Receipts 8.00
Miscellaneous Capital Receipts 8,039.00
Mobile Telephone Licences 10,000.00
Social Welfare 20,000.00
Sinking Fund 0.00
0
970,302.00
VOTED CURRENT & CAPITAL EXPENDITURE
Agriculture, Fisheries and Food 618,659
Arts, Sport and Tourism 290,018
Communications, Energy and Natural Resources 122,323
Community, Rural and Gaeltacht Affairs 278,908
Defence 551,154
Education and Science 5,282,705
Enterprise, Trade and Employment 700,340
Environment, Heritage and Local Government 1,076,269
Finance Group 703,387
Foreign Affairs 488,821
Health and Children 7,952,736
Justice Group 1,465,366
Social and Family Affairs 8,459,396
Taoiseach's Group 101,410
Transport 1,130,421

29,221,913

NON VOTED CURRENT EXPENDITURE
Interest 2,349,746
Sinking Fund Contribution 617,229
Other Debt Management Expenses 68,301
Contribution to EU Fund 950,828
P & T Sevices 0
Marathon Petroleum 6,330
Election Expenses 939
Political Parties 9,235
Salaries, Pensions and Allowances 26,492
Oireactas 68,887
IDA & ADF 27,240
NDFA Act 1,963
Asian Development Fund 0
Miscellaneous 212

4,127,402

NON VOTED CAPITAL EXPENDITURE
FEOGA Agriculture 0
NAMA 49,000
Shares in EBS 100,000
Shares in INBS 100,000
Other Loans 0
European Bank for Reconstruction 0
and Development 0
Development Banks 20,000
Shares in EFSF 293
Cohesion Fund / ERDF 467
Carbon Fund Act 2007 627
National Pension Savings Scheme 0
Other Payments 5,015
Recoupable advances to NAMA 250,000
Anglo Irish Bank 0
0
525,402




YEAR TO DATE TOTAL CURRENT RECEIPTS 19,983,357
YTD TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE 30,643,272

YTD CURRENT DEFICIT -10,659,915

YTD TOTAL CAPITAL RECEIPTS 1,587,531
YTD TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE 3,231,445

YTD CAPITAL DEFICIT -1,643,914

YTD TOTAL DEFICIT -12,303,829

Look forward to the spin

[Sync]

From the same genius that predicted an emergency budget in April, then one in June, and then one in September.

[Cassandra Syndrome]

From the same genius that predicted an emergency budget in April, then one in June, and then one in September.

My monthly budget statement predictions are always near spot on. Check that why don't you. They are avoiding emergency budgets as the bank recaps seem to magically take care of themselves.

[MPB]

The figures will be broadly in line with the wide range of estimates forecast by the Govt.

[Sync]

Exactly MPB. All CS does is reprint the Govt predictions, then bitch about them when they're pretty much on target.

[Newsy]

The figures will be broadly in line with the wide range of estimates forecast by the Govt.

This gov have fallen in love with the word 'broadly'!!!

lenihan used it yesterday in describing anglo's loss.....it was broadly in line with expectations......

[MPB]

Exactly MPB. All CS does is reprint the Govt predictions, then bitch about them when they're pretty much on target.

No he does not.

[Partizan]

"We are united in our determination......."

[grafter1]

Exactly MPB. All CS does is reprint the Govt predictions, then bitch about them when they're pretty much on target.

The government set predictions for 2010 that it was convinced it would beat. In all walks of life the majority of people build budgets that they feel they'll slightly exceed.

The government figures are behind these projections. Tax Revenues are falling and will continue to fall. Spending remains out of control and if the government think they can stick to the plan agreed with the EU they are sadly mistaken.

€5Bn minimum should be cut in the next budget - but why would FF put Irelands future ahead of their own performance at the next election or why would they make life any easier for the next government.

Why dont FF project 20Bn of Revenue for 2011 and 60Bn of spending.

Then the figures will beat expectations and we'll have turned that corner!

[hammer]

Everthing is "nearly" in line with expectations. Unfortunately it is south of the expectation. If it was North we couldn`t get the Fianna FAIL spinners of the news.

The biggest month is November for tax revenues. It will be disasterous.

We will then [COLOR="Black"]over 11 months [/COLOR]into the year realise that we are SUBSTANTIALLY behind expectations. Too late then