Good News: IAVI Calls the Bottom

[Sailor]

Thats correct, its taken for granted among adults when it comes to dicussing pension values. One talks about the sum needed to be PAID IN, not the sum PAID OUT.

In the above case the GArda would need to PAY IN E1million, to recieve his week by week largesse for the rest of his retirement.

Just as recently FFRTE gave a valuation on Fingers pension of E26Million, and all the adults watching knew they were describing the PAY IN price, not like you the PAY OUT.

[Boggle]

I do not aspire to high property prices - my sole contribution to this thread has been to demonstrate that rural property prices do not have as far to fall as do Dublin prices - and your whole approach to mortgages supports this thesis.

My approach supports the thesis that rural property prices do not have as far to fall as dublin prices. However, it indicates that the difference will be in the region of 5% - not 20% you are indicating.
Assuming I am right (which it has to be said is a guess no more valid than anyone elses) then droppingd to 150k represents a fall of 42% from peak (there or there abouts) and roughly ties in with what I believe avg wages to be.

But I do not want to see a total collapse - because then we would have a serious problem for NAMA.

Not being funny but I'm not so sure there is anything we can do for NAMA at this stage. The banks will not give more money to buy a house than they think they can realise by selling it off. NAMA can try to restrict the release of property onto the market but you cannot leave property empty for too long so it will either have to compete in the rental market, forcing rental prices down, or be sold, forcing property prices down.
Couple that with the fact that the banks will not believe a recovery in property prices can begin until the portfolio is gone so we will have an gradual and crushing slow decline in property prices.

Surely we are better to just dump the property on the market today at whatever price anyone will pay and persue a policy of low property prices to get us out of this hole. With low property prices we will see a vast improvement over time in local spending which will filter through into the exchequer. It's not a quick fix but then neither is NAMA.

And I am not an FF supporter -

Okay....

when I see the government doing something wrong I say so - but in the case of managing a recovery they are doing at least as good a job as the other crowd are likely to do.

Do you really trust these idiots? They have presided over the creation of the biggest mess in the states history and yet they still will not give straight answers or take decisive steps.
Maybe you're correct and FG wouldn't be much better but at least we may have some level of trust in a new govt.

They deserve credit for that as they deserve to shoulder some of the blame for creating the domestic elements of the crisis.

I don't believe they deserve any credit as I feel they are doing a terrible job. I realise that there are some so called experts saying they are doing well, but I disagree with them.
Tell you one thing - when put in a position of basing my decisions on so called experts with questionable motivations or making up my own mind - I'll back my own horse every time.
Worked so far.

[Baron von Biffo]

If the E1million pension is being mostly paid by the taxpayer, then the hardship to the Garda to pay the mortage is lessened.

Bet you still wont give the figures on this €1M pension though Max. You wont tell us how much the guard pays and you wont tell us how much the taxpayer pays. Maybe you're trying to recession proof yourself by setting up the chance of a job in the fact free zone that is the Indo.

[maxthedog]

Bet you still wont give the figures on this €1M pension though Max. You wont tell us how much the guard pays and you wont tell us how much the taxpayer pays. Maybe you're trying to recession proof yourself by setting up the chance of a job in the fact free zone that is the Indo.

I have given you a figure , the Garda pension would cost E1million in the private market and you have given nothing, but PS union spin to try and deflect from that figure.

[Baron von Biffo]

I have given you a figure , the Garda pension would cost E1million in the private market and you have given nothing, but PS union spin to try and deflect from that figure.

I'm trying to establish your source for that €1M claim as well as your figures for the amount guards pay into their own pension and how much the state pays to subsidise them. At a guess I'd say I'll have built my perpetual motion machine and tracked down the Holy Grail before they're forthcoming.

[CPAMG]

Thought this was all over the press last year.

Garda pension worth €1.1m - National News, Frontpage - Independent.ie


"THE cost of buying a garda's pension on the open market would amount to €1.1m, new figures reveal.

But the garda will only have contributed €110,000, or 10pc, to their pension even after the imposition of the pensions levy, according to research carried out by actuary Fiona Daly of Rubicon Investment Consulting. "

Meanwhile, back on topic have we reached the bottom...no chance. I see there were only 7,800 mortgages given out in QTR2.

We're still building 10,000 or so units this year...and what's the overhang again?

2013 even looks optimistic!

[Baron von Biffo]

Though this was all over the press last year.

Garda pension worth €1.1m - National News, Frontpage - Independent.ie


"THE cost of buying a garda's pension on the open market would amount to €1.1m, new figures reveal.

But the garda will only have contributed €110,000, or 10pc, to their pension even after the imposition of the pensions levy, according to research carried out by actuary Fiona Daly of Rubicon Investment Consulting. "

The Indo

Garda pay scales are here. Anyone who's interested can do the calculations for themselves. PRSI + Pension contribution + Pension levy + interest over the 30 years will get an underestimation of the true cost to the guard but it will still come out well over €110k.

[CPAMG]

I'd be inclined to agree if it was just some indo journo running their own figures but the research was carried out by actuary Fiona Daly of Rubicon Investment Consulting.

In addition to their base pay you have to take into account "Pensionable Allowances"

GRA - Pensions Details

That might explain the difference!!

"As regard the pensionability of allowances, additional pensionable remuneration in the case of members of the Force who retire with approved service on and after 1st October, 1982, is calculated by averaging over the three year period immediately preceding a member’s retirement the total amount paid in pensionable allowances, or under recent agreement, for members who retire as and from the 1st April 2004, the best three consecutive years in the ten years preceding retirement.

On 28th March, 1994, agreement was reached at the Garda Conciliation Council which provided, inter alia, that unsocial hours’ allowances, i.e. Saturday, Sunday, Public Holiday and Night Duty allowances, would be pensionable for members of the Force serving on or after 1 January, 1994. It should be noted that unrostered unsocial hours’ allowances are not pensionable but premium payments are reckonable for pension purposes.


BTW - I'm a firm believer that a Garda should be well paid. It's a difficult and stressful job in a lot of ways and I wouldn't do it.