Frank Fahey: "You can't make predictions about [...] the property market"

[Anorakphobia]

Please stop encouraging that fool Eurocitizan.
His sole purpose on this site is to take anti FF discussions off topic with his Walter Mitty warblings and once more he has succeeded, a good topic lashing the disgraceful property schilling of Frank Fahey taken off course with gammon about his alleged property portfolio and inherited wealth.

[Scorpio]

Is there a breakdown anywhere of the oversupply by area and type? The detail is important as many may never be either completed or occupied because they are too small, badly designed or built, or located where there is no demand.

Try this (although it's a year and half old at this point):
Intergenerational outsourcing and the consequences of building 10% too much: A look at Ireland’s property market in 2013

[oceanclub]

property only ever goes up

if you don't buy now, you'll never get on the ladder

rent is dead money

etc

As sure as my hair is real, when I return to the House in 2 years from now, the young people of Ireland will be rich beyond their wildest dreams, renting out their dozen BTLs to Poles.

P.

[HarshBuzz]

Property is a fairly good long term investment. It should be treated as an investment though and not a gamble on whether the value of the property will rise.

Property is subject to short sharp shocks but over a twenty year investment it is a good bet.

tell that to the Japs who bought in 1990

Property investment in Ireland, at the moment, would not be a wise investment because we haven't hit the floor yet (Very close though) and there is huge over supply. There are some good property investments in Britan and on the continent.

we are nowhere near the floor here. I agree that there are some reasonable plays on the continent.

As a balanced contributor would you think that moderate risk investment such as the evergreen product from BOI would merit a dollop of my money ????

I wouldn't touch any BoI investment product to be honest, their track record is appalling (just look up the IT for confirmation today) - they're consistently ranked 'worst in class'.

I would stay in cash for now and would avoid anything that has Irish exposure.

[oceanclub]

Property is subject to short sharp shocks but over a twenty year investment it is a good bet.

Tell that to the Japanese.

Property is a good bet if you buy it at realistic prices outside a bubble.

P.

[slumdog1971]

tell that to the Japs who bought in 1990

Japan is a funny case I admit. Whilst there are a lot of similarities to our housing bubble, there were a lot of diferent circumstances at work.

London's yuppie property bubble of the 90's might be a better comparision

we are nowhere near the floor here. I agree that there are some reasonable plays on the continent.

Sooner enough the assets are going to be worth the cost of the land and labour that went into making up the property price. What has been lost so far in prperty values was the profit of the developers. We are close to the bottom.

I wouldn't touch any BoI investment product to be honest, their track record is appalling (just look up the IT for confirmation today) - they're consistently ranked 'worst in class'.

True

I would stay in cash for now and would avoid anything that has Irish exposure.

I don't think this state will collapse any further but would I gain any additional security by lodging my cash in an NIB account ?

[oceanclub]

Japan is a funny case I admit. Whilst there are a lot of similarities to our housing bubble, there were a lot of diferent circumstances at work.

For one thing, they actually have strong indigenous industries producing things that people actually want to buy.

P.

[oceanclub]

Sooner enough the assets are going to be worth the cost of the land and labour that went into making up the property price. What has been lost so far in prperty values was the profit of the developers. We are close to the bottom.

What has the cost of production got to do with the market value?

I'm surprised a Labour party member is coming out with this nonsense.

P.

[Fish]

Sooner enough the assets are going to be worth the cost of the land and labour that went into making up the property price. What has been lost so far in prperty values was the profit of the developers. We are close to the bottom.

So the assets are going to be worth the cost of the land and labour that went into making up the property price is it? Both of these costs were grossly inflated themselves over the Tigris Celtica. Land prices particularly were by far and away the largest contributor to high prices.

Close to the bottom?

On what factual basis do you make this assumption?

Wishful thinking me thinks, but to be fair you are not alone in believing that the market is nearing the bottom. In the abscence of any underlying rationale you and many others appear to be suffering from the fairly common affliction in Ireland known as cognitive dissonance or denial put more simply.

And do tell what is going to stop the inevitable fall in prices to the traditional norm of house prices tracking the mean CPI figure. Let's see, medium term indicators for employment are for further job losses and stagnation, continued emigration, falling incomes, increased taxes, restrictive bank lending and reduced lending to income multiples ratios and 300k+empties. Yeah were close to the bottom alright slumdog.

Keep drinking the cool aid mate.....

[Eurocitizen]

Please stop encouraging that fool Eurocitizan.
His sole purpose on this site is to take anti FF discussions off topic with his Walter Mitty warblings and once more he has succeeded, a good topic lashing the disgraceful property schilling of Frank Fahey taken off course with gammon about his alleged property portfolio and inherited wealth.

You really are a bitter little man, you need to get a life. The rest of the posters have been most helpful but you have to stick your nose in with your usual bitterness.

Thank to all for the advice.