Let's discuss the Rogoff solution

[feargach]

Harvard Prof Kenneth Rogoff has a bold and interesting suggestion:

“It would be positively healthy if the European Union found a way to let countries that need to restructure to temporarily exit the euro and later re-enter,”

Sounds very interesting indeed.

The notion of departing the Euro has one big monster objection: it's impossible because our debts are all in €.

Rogoff's implication is that we should have a situation where the underwater economies temporarily leave the €. But their debts would continue to be serviced while they are out of the currency. Either from the existing $1trillion fund or a new one.

They would then devalue, perhaps to a € currency peg with €1 = 10 drachmas, for example. Like Argentina's monster devaluation in 2002, this would lead to a huge economic expansion in the devalued nations. Ireland, Portugal and Greece would be able to run big, structural budget surpluses year after year. As a result, we would be welcome into the Euro fold within 5 to 6 years.

Let's discuss the possibilities.

[birthday]

What would the exchange rate be when re-entering the Euro?

[feargach]

What would the exchange rate be when re-entering the Euro?

Depends how much the economy expands while we're out of the euro.

[cyberianpan]

Feldstein advocated this a while back

The Irish Economy Blog Archive A Bonzer Wheeze, by Martin Feldstein

Perhaps there could be an appointed day, once a year, when everybody could step out, as in Lanigan’s Ball, and then step in again, as soon as the competitiveness gain seemed adequate.

In practice the idea is close to unworkable... though it's a nice thought experiment

cYp

[The Underdog]

Could anyone hazard a guess as to what would our interest rates would be if we weren’t in the Euro ?

[feargach]

Could anyone hazard a guess as to what would our interest rates would be if we weren’t in the Euro ?

Well, again, Argentina is a guide. The interest rates would be higher, but so would employment levels and growth levels.

You might like the current near-zero interest rates, but that comes with a price: below-zero growth rates.

[feargach]

In practice the idea is close to unworkable... though it's a nice thought experiment

cYp

is it unworkable for any reason, or just because you don't like it?

[Corkoniense]

Some real thinking on our economic crisis for once. Fair play Feargach, just don't expect our gombeen aristocracy to play ball. For them, it's high rent at all costs, even when there's no rent to pay.

[feargach]

Some real thinking on our economic crisis for once. Fair play Feargach, just don't expect our gombeen aristocracy to play ball. For them, it's high rent at all costs, even when there's no rent to pay.

Nice of you to say so, but all credit goes to Rogoff.

There's no clearly thought-out objection to this.

Though it's true that this would cause some short-term pain for countries still in the Eurozone. Greece and Portugal would siphon away investment from Germany.

Opening and running a factory in Lisbon would be massively cheaper than one in Berlin.

However, there is a silver lining: when Portugal returns to EMU with a big budget surplus, what Teutonic nation will they be paying that surplus to? No prizes for guessing.

The alternative: do nothing and let Greece and Portugal and our good selves default, taking with it the entire German banking system. Result, 5 million German jobs destroyed and not replaced.

This plan has a certain odour of inevitability about it. Every other possible option is much worse for Germany (let alone everybody else) by a long distance.

[cyberianpan]

is it unworkable for any reason, or just because you don't like it?

Changing currency during a crisis would be operationally very difficult, the economic theorists say it would be nice, none of them have published a transition plan- absent evidence from their side, then the proposition is not credible
The Irish Economy Blog Archive Leaving the Euro

cYp