In a recent report, Euro Weekly: Sovereign Crisis – How Will Policy Respond, the Citi economists homed in on the problem of private sector debt in the peripheral euro-zone members, Ireland, Spain and Portugal (but not Greece), which is between six and four times larger than their respective Government debt.
They are talking about money borrowed by households and business during booms, fuelled by low interest rates.
They concluded that this debt had be addressed first – or at least in tandem – with any sort of solution to the Government debt crisis faced by these countries.
The reason for this, they argue, is that the measures being put in place in these countries to deal with their government debt problems – massive cutbacks in Government spending and higher taxes – could shrink their economies so drastically that a vicious cycle sets in.
More and more private sector firms and households will go bust, causing more and more problems for the banks, requiring more and more government help, requiring more and more government borrowing, warns the bank.
The solution, argues Citi, is for some sort of upfront measures to reduce the private sector debt burden and stop this cycle setting in. They go so far as to suggest some sort of European Bank Rescue fund that would fund the orderly up-front writing off by banks in peripheral countries of private sector debt; a veritable National Asset Management Agency (Nama) for the people.
It would have to be funded by the euro zone as a whole, believes Citi, and the authors of the report – which predated the €750 billion emergency measures announced two weekends ago to try to head off the sovereign debt crisis – are under no illusion as to how unlikely this might be.
Nama for the little people finds backer in global giant - The Irish Times - Mon, May 17, 2010