Ireland'S 2009 budget deficit totalled 14.3% of GDP, EU says

[MayoDub]

Constantin Gurdgiev's TrueEconomics blog covering it here:
True Economics: Economics 22/04/2010: Ireland's deficit tops Greece

@DreadedEstate, is there a public domain and free link (eg, Bloombergs) to view Irish sovereign spreads over Bunds, ?

[Socratus O' Pericles]

Italy owes a national debt of $1.89 trillion, or 103.7 percent of the Italian GDPGDP vs National Debt by Country |

[COLOR="Green"]So whats our problem?[/COLOR]

[Sensor]

Will they similarly drag NAMA back onto the national balance sheet?

Because NAMA is an SPV, and is not funded directly from exchequer, it won't be counted when calculating the deficit.

In any case, unlike Anglo money, any money spent by NAMA is in exchange for real assets - i.e loans backed by security. So it is an investment rather than spending (for now at least - when NAMA has to pay back the ECB money in a few years and if Govt has to cover that, then it will be spendiing)

[MayoDub]

How about the promissory notes being used to recapitalise Anglo and INBS ?

Link to IrishEconomy.ie discussion

[The_Big_Fellow]

A technical reclassification as someone said early that is like something out of Father Ted, that would be " an ecumenical matter" minister.

It surely is only a matter of time before the already voted worst finance minister in Europe is exposed as a spoofer.

[markeys]

I swear, do bond traders only read Bloomberg news headlines to set bond rates!! It's not like this 2010 GDP projection is new-news. And to add insult to injury, the IMF says that 2011 GDP growth will be 2.2% not the governemnts projected 4%. This puts GNP at around 0% growth. Hmmmm, so not much to happen on the jobs front until 2012!!

Sorry in advance for nitpicking.


The IMF says 2010\2011 GDP growth will be 1.9%. Real GDP will be 1%
Government says 4% - more than twice that of the IMF. Somebody has their sums wrong and I'd be inclined to believe the IMF more than the government.

IMF says inflation in Ireland in 2010 will be -2% and -0.6% for 2011. ERSI is forecasting CPI figure of 1.75% in 2011
Is there any public body in Ireland that can produce consistently accurate forecasts?

[The_Big_Fellow]

Sorry in advance for nitpicking.


The IMF says 2010\2011 GDP growth will be 1.9%. Real GDP will be 1%
Government says 4% - more than twice that of the IMF. Somebody has their sums wrong and I'd be inclined to believe the IMF more than the government.

IMF says inflation in Ireland in 2010 will be -2% and -0.6% for 2011. ERSI is forecasting CPI figure of 1.75% in 2011
Is there any public body in Ireland that can produce consistently accurate forecasts?

Well when you see the letters ESRI on a report you have to treat it as suspect. I would love to know what goes on in that body. They have an absolutely shocking record.

[libertarian-right]

Italy owes a national debt of $1.89 trillion, or 103.7 percent of the Italian GDPGDP vs National Debt by Country |

[COLOR="Green"]So whats our problem?[/COLOR]

If you include NAMA + Bank recaps, we push past the 100% barrier. With a deficit chewing it away.

[grassroots]

Even it the government sticks to its circa 12% target the reclassification of the Anglo and presumably the INBS money means the 2010 deficit will be 20% of GDP!!!

Explain please, will this not be amortised over 10 years?

Have you not noticed that Greece is blowing up-hence the reason for the weakness of the euro and the widening peripheral spreads.

[Sensor]

Sorry in advance for nitpicking.


The IMF says 2010\2011 GDP growth will be 1.9%. Real GDP will be 1%
Government says 4% - more than twice that of the IMF. Somebody has their sums wrong and I'd be inclined to believe the IMF more than the government.

IMF says inflation in Ireland in 2010 will be -2% and -0.6% for 2011. ERSI is forecasting CPI figure of 1.75% in 2011
Is there any public body in Ireland that can produce consistently accurate forecasts?

There is no guarantee IMF will be correct ! When it comes to foresight, no one has been good in the past few years ! So why only blame ESRI. Best bet is to depend on your common sense.