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  1. #1
    odlum odlum is offline
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    The Great Sterling collapse is coming....

    Europe's banks brace for UK debt crisis
    UniCredit has alerted investors in a client note that Britain is at serious risk of a bond market and sterling debacle and faces even more intractable budget woes than Greece.

    By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
    Published: 8:20PM GMT 11 Mar 2010

    No turning back: Sterling is going to fall further over coming months, warns Unicredit
    The Italian-German group, Europe's second largest bank, said Britain's tax structure will make it hard to raise fresh revenue quickly enough to restore confidence in UK public finances.

    "I am becoming convinced that Great Britain is the next country that is going to be pummelled by investors," said Kornelius Purps, Unicredit 's fixed income director and a leading analyst in Germany.

    "Britain's AAA-rating is highly at risk. The budget deficit is huge at 13pc of GDP and investors are not happy. The outgoing government is inactive due to the election. There will have to be absolute cuts in public salaries or pay, but nobody is talking about that," he told The Daily Telegraph.

    "Sterling is going to fall further over coming months. I am not expecting a crash of the gilts market but we may see a further rise in spreads of 30 to 50 basis points."

    Europe's banks brace for UK debt crisis - Telegraph
    The hens are coming home to roost....

    <Mod - do not post large chunks of copyright material - a brief extract and link is the way to go>
    Last edited by He3; 12th March 2010 at 05:03 PM.
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  2. #2
    kerrynorth kerrynorth is offline

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    If and when Sterling hits parity who among us here will volunteer to turn the last of the lights in Ireland?
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  3. #3
    Supermanpolitician Supermanpolitician is offline
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    Euro is also over valued. Both GBP and Eur will drop vs USD. This is a good thing for Euro and GBP exports to the US.
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  4. #4
    rockofcashel rockofcashel is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Supermanpolitician View Post
    Euro is also over valued. Both GBP and Eur will drop vs USD. This is a good thing for Euro and GBP exports to the US.
    Are you basing the statement that the Euro is over valued on European currency concerns, or Irish export concerns ?

    Irish exporters may wish for a lower value Euro, but we are but a tiny cog in the overall European economy. The real Euro economies i.e. Germany, may not think the Euro is over valued

    There is a big difference between what we want and what other Eurozone countries want you know
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  5. #5
    toughbutfair toughbutfair is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by kerrynorth View Post
    If and when Sterling hits parity who among us here will volunteer to turn the last of the lights in Ireland?
    Oh stop the tired old cliches.
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  6. #6
    toughbutfair toughbutfair is offline

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    Any movements have some pros cons. I haven't bought any clothes or gadgets in Ireland in years. A drop in sterling will mean when I do my next round of shopping (about twice a year) I'll do it next time I'm there and get them cheaper.
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  7. #7
    rockofcashel rockofcashel is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by toughbutfair View Post
    Any movements have some pros cons.[b I haven't bought any clothes or gadgets in Ireland in years [/b]. A drop in sterling will mean when I do my next round of shopping (about twice a year) I'll do it next time I'm there and get them cheaper.
    And yet blame the woes of the Irish economy on over inflated public sector pay... Ahhh the innocence
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  8. #8
    toughbutfair toughbutfair is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by rockofcashel View Post
    And yet blame the woes of the Irish economy on over inflated public sector pay... Ahhh the innocence
    I paid about 40k income tax last year so I don't apologies for shopping around for the best deals. It is the EU and all that!!!!!!!!
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  9. #9
    needle_too needle_too is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by kerrynorth View Post
    If and when Sterling hits parity who among us here will volunteer to turn the last of the lights in Ireland?
    +1

    If you think the Irish economy is bad now, keep hoping your biggest trading partner collapses and ~20Bn of exports fall in value.
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  10. #10
    Supermanpolitician Supermanpolitician is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by rockofcashel View Post
    Are you basing the statement that the Euro is over valued on European currency concerns, or Irish export concerns ?

    Irish exporters may wish for a lower value Euro, but we are but a tiny cog in the overall European economy. The real Euro economies i.e. Germany, may not think the Euro is over valued

    There is a big difference between what we want and what other Eurozone countries want you know
    Fair point and Ireland does export a proprtionally huge amount of GDP to non eurozone countries in comparison to similar countries, eg Finland.

    But both Germany and GB have huge trade relations with the US. Yes they will lose buying power, as will we, buy they could be offset by an increase in exports.

    Ireland would benefit more than most, but I take your point about the double edged sword.
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