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Ireland: Not as ********************ed as Greece!
New FDI campaign
Ireland: Not as ********************ed as Greece!
Romani ite domum!
What this graph shows (or doesn't show) is that the fiscal position has had relatively little impact on our costs of borrowing. The thing that really swings it, in a big way, is the state's exposure to the financial system - or, more specifically, uncertainty about the state's exposure. If you look at the big spike in the green line at the start of that graph, when the spread went to it's highest, that was just at the time Anglo was nationalised and nobody had a breeze what was going on. Around March/April, it settles down a good bit, after the NAMA plan was outlined (a plan - even a bad plan - is better than a vacuum). It picks up again in the run up to the publication of the draft NAMA bill, when there was a lot of uncertainty about the size of the haircut, whether the Greens would stand over it, etc, then settles down again after publication.
The budgetary position isn't irrelevant, but it isn't very significant to these borrowing costs, certainly not as significant as the spin being put out. The Greeks are a different kettle of fish altogether, simply because nobody's trusted their stats since last December, and still don't know quite how screwed they are or if they have a way out. Even if the Government hadn't cut spending, there's no reason in the world to think our spreads would be anything like theirs are.
Nothing will motivate the lazy / apathetic / Americanised / west-British types to embrace their culture and the Irish language.
Oh, God. The worst-case scenario is playing out...
In government, Fianna Fáil strenuously insist to a gullible media and shell-shocked public that they are taking the necessary tough decisions. Nevermind caving in to pensioners, reversing the top-level civil service pay cuts and ramping up borrowing through NAMA and bank recapitalisation.
All the while, the stock of government debt grows and grows.
Then, on some pretext or other, they slouch into opposition.
Sure as anything, the next government is severely limited in how much borrowing it can access. The deflationary death-spiral of the economy continues, and it becomes more apparent that Ireland cannot repay its debts. In opposition, FF refuses to follow through on its rhetoric from today by giving Dáil support to "tough decisions" made by the next government.
Predictably, with all the stalling devices out of time, and all the kicks to touch already carried out, default looms.
FF sit back, cry crocodile tears at the resulting collapse of the state and point out that it all happened under the watch of the opposition, and that the international markets had kept faith with an FF government. (Meanwhile, the property developers and car dealers and everyone else given soft treatment along the way is back bankrolling the natural party of government.)
Do the bright-eyed Fine Gaelers have any idea of what's in store for them?
Last edited by Libero; 11th March 2010 at 02:31 PM.
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Hmmmmmmmmm a thriving industry in thieving and overcharging is more apt.Originally Posted by Mr.Wolf
On the 3 occasions I have visited Greece, Athens for 10 days and travelling round for 2 weeks on other occasions to islands.
I have never come across so much blantant overcharging where ever you were even in McDonalds and it was always "Oh sorry a mistake".
Sad fact was other tourists were stating exactly the same.
Absolutely Libero.
A FF positive news story is great to keep the faithful happy.
Could you imagine the size of the statement if we were considering where we were and where we are now
No political party can repair what FF have done to the economy. None.
It will be baby steps and maybe in 10 years time we`ll have some hope.
Good post.
I wonder how we compare to Germany.......
Being better than Greece is not a lot to be very proud of.
Well those graphs are the spread against Germany for ourselves and Greece on 10-yr Government Debt in basis points. Right now the yield on their 10yr bonds is running at about 3.16%, ours is about 130bp (1.3%) higher than that.
Nothing will motivate the lazy / apathetic / Americanised / west-British types to embrace their culture and the Irish language.
Dear God. Stop for one minute.
This is Ireland in 2010 and we are spending our time on a Thursday afternoon on the run up to Paddy's, spitting at each other over a graph that only shows that the spread of our interest on BORROWING FUNDS TO SURVIVE, over a nation that itself is running a large deficit is performing reasonably well in 2nd place to another country that the entire planet has lost complete confidence in.
I seen the Greek Finance minister on CNBC talking about how his nation is under attack from Credit Default Swaps using perfect English. He talked about it because he knows them inside out. Could you imagine Brian Lenihan on CNBC talking about hardcore financial derivative instruments? What makes us better than Greece? We have higher unemployment, a much more severe contraction and higher public and private debt per GNP.
How can we possible celebrate that we are keeping the yield on our bonds under 5% when National Debt is going to explode over 100% of GNP and God knows where it will end?
Debt is our problem. We have 500% of our income as debt and that cannot be serviced even if interest rates were 0%.
Stop and think about things for a couple of minutes. This is 2010 and we are up the creek.
"No one rules if no one obeys" - Tao
Fianna Fáil... plan... ha ha ha. Oh, i thought you were joking.
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