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Thread: If there is an oversupply of homes and hotels ..

  1. #1
    Politics.ie Regular cricket's Avatar
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    If there is an oversupply of homes and hotels ..

    .. then why do I read in today's Examiner of planning permission for a 370 bed hotel to be built in Summerhill , Dublin and 240 houses in Glanmire, Cork, an area already choked by overdevelopment.

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    Politics.ie Member hammer's Avatar
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    Cool.

    This is a cunning plan. The land is worthless unless it has planning permission. Now that it has been granted planning permission the value increase PRIOR to it being transferred to NAMA. The Irish public now overpays for these sites which might never be developed and the Bank gets to reduce its exposure.
    Last edited by hammer; 25th February 2010 at 08:23 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hammer View Post
    Cool.

    This is a cunning plan. The land is worthless unless it has planning permission. Now that it has been granted planning permission the value increase PRIOR to it being transferred to NAMA. The Irish public now overpays for these sites which might never be developed and the Bank gets tyo reduce its exposure.
    Correct.

    Of course in Dublin there is actually a shortage of supply of good quality family homes with proper links to the city centre. Not many of them were built during the boom.

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    Politics.ie Regular Panopticon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnfás View Post
    Correct.

    Of course in Dublin there is actually a shortage of supply of good quality family homes with proper links to the city centre. Not many of them were built during the boom.
    No real shortage of such houses in the metro Dublin area. The problem is that they are located in the wrong place, closer to the city centre than the high-density developments, so they cost too much. Family homes should be in the suburbs and the apartments should be in the centre; Dublin is inside-out.

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    Let me quote you a paragraph from Fintan O’Toole’s excellent book “Ship of Fools”

    The main reason for this [the runaway property inflation between 1994 and 2007] was the price of building land, which in turn was heavily influenced by what the Oireachtas All-Party Committee on the Constitution referred to as the fact that ” certain landowners had accumulated large landbanks at the outskirts of urban areas which they then released in dribs and drabs in order to manipulate the market and artificially to maintain high land prices”. Essentially a small number of very wealthy land speculators was able to shape the market in such a way as to ensure that the cost of buying the land it stood on made up a larger and larger proportion of the cost of a house”

    If the Oireachtas Committee is correct (seems like a good enough judge of fact to me), then might such market manipulation be possible, nay probable, again? Could the social altruism of banks restructuring mortgages on 30,000 properties, the overhang of 300,000 vacant properties, the unsustainable lending margins of Irish banks (now at about 1% compared to 3.5% a few years ago), the lack of recovery actions by the banks on big developers (there have been some but compared to the size of the loans, it’s but a drop in the ocean) – with all of this could we be seeing a manipulation of the market ahead of NAMA’s point of no return?

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    NAMA designed to be to property what the CAP was to agriculture - difference, food production is essential.

  6. #6
    Politics.ie Member hammer's Avatar
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    This land will never be built on. There are vacant units close to the core / city centre which will need to be occupied first. Someone attempting to buy this land would need really deep pockets as the Banks will not be lending to property developers for at least another 5 years in Ireland at least.

    There are huge opportunities available for developers abroad.

    Ireland is a basket case.

    Cant wait for Aer Lingus ( if it is still in operation after losing c €400m in cash in 2 years ) to start jetting in US business people that are going to start recruiting 400,000 Irish people in manufacturing business in areas as diverse as Killarney, Limerick, Galway, Ballina, Cavan, Tullamore, Kinnegad & Dublin.

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    Yesterday in a letter to the Editor, in the Irish Times I understood that South Dublin County Council has granted planning permission for the first phase of 11,500 homes.

    Yes, 11,500 homes!!!!
    The hurt of one is the hurt of all, the honour of one is the honour of all.

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    Politics.ie Member hammer's Avatar
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    Come off it.

    We had planning permission granted in Castleknock for a new shopping centre with 15 retail units.

    I hope the spending splurge comes soon as 2 months previously planning permission was granted for a neighbourhood centre & hotel in the Phoenix Park Racecourse.

    Please PM me with ideas as to where all these consumers will come from ?

  9. #9
    Politics.ie Regular Panopticon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Newsy View Post
    Yesterday in a letter to the Editor, in the Irish Times I understood that South Dublin County Council has granted planning permission for the first phase of 11,500 homes.

    Yes, 11,500 homes!!!!
    No harm if the demand is there. We shouldn't oblige people to live in the very furthest outskirts of the Greater Dublin Area far into the future just because our developers blundered and located excess supply there. And there is a good case to be made that we should have people living closer to their workplaces, which in Ireland means our 2 world-standard cities.

    If the demand is not there, though, it is obviously a bad move.

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