Rents rise by 1% in January

[btw]

THe supply is the issue too. Despite over 300,000 properties, nobody can or wants to invest in houses to rent. Even if rents keep rising as a result, credit and liquidity is an issue for investing. Mortgage Rates and energy costs and utilities will increase creating a cost push inflation too in prices.

Deflationary depressions can flip into hyperinflationary depressions overnight from the sudden fall in producers and supply.

Seems to be due to less supply coming into the market.

Lyons makes the point that there is still 300,000 unoccupied units in the country. If even 10% of those came on the market at once, rents would definitely drop again.

The rental yield is still about 4/4.5% and needs to rise to 6% even by NAMA standards.

[jimbo99]

Seems to be due to less supply coming into the market.

Lyons makes the point that there is still 300,000 unoccupied units in the country. If even 10% of those came on the market at once, rents would definitely drop again.

The rental yield is still about 4/4.5% and needs to rise to 6% even by NAMA standards.

i was talking to a guy who manges lettings on behalf of landlords, he manages 300+ on the east coast. He says he is very busy as the rental market is taking in loads of tenants who are renting rather than buying (many are waiting for the right house at the right price to come along.)

[LineInTheSand]

THe supply is the issue too. Despite over 300,000 properties, nobody can or wants to invest in houses to rent.

I think this is a key point that is restricting supply, even a completed property will require a substantial investment by the owner before it can be rented as furnished. The inability to get any credit for this sort of thing must be affecting the market.

There seems to be no hope for the tens of thousands of incomplete properties being finished to the required standard for rental.

[hammer]

Its never been a better time to buy?

Not if you are an investor.

Cash deposits is the place to be

or pay down existing debt

[hammer]

THe supply is the issue too. Despite over 300,000 properties, nobody can or wants to invest in houses to rent. Even if rents keep rising as a result, credit and liquidity is an issue for investing. Mortgage Rates and energy costs and utilities will increase creating a cost push inflation too in prices.

Deflationary depressions can flip into hyperinflationary depressions overnight from the sudden fall in producers and supply.

I`m off to buy 2/3 houses especially as coming down the line is

1. NAMA
2. Higher interest rates
3. 80% mortgage max.
4. Poor quality tenants
5. Property tax
6. Water rates
7. Increasing service charges
8. Increasing tax - PRSI & Income Levy on rents

Anyone that buys property now is an imbecile unless you a first time buyer and desperate.

[odie1kanobe]

331 homes repossessed by lenders

Mortgage lenders held a total of 331 repossessed homes by the end of September, according to new figures from the Financial Regulator.
RTÉ News: 331 homes repossessed by lenders

Ok whilst were not talking UK sorts of numbers this is still a stimulus to the rental market.

We have a regular flow of Immigrants/people who hand over their houses, people who have lost their homes and otherrs who want to have their own home but cant get a loan from the bank.

With repossessions set to rise the rental market has never had it so good, and whilst not official we shave in some mad sort of way a rental market stimulus.

46000 reposession in the UK in 2009, which followed 40,000 in 2008.

Reposession is a non story with little impact on housing market up to now.

[hammer]

Hopefully it stays that way.

[dalywise]

It is a good time to buy, as long as you've properly stress tested how your mortgage will look with a few more points on the interest.

Wait until the average house price settles at 5 times the average industrial wage. Another few years before that happens I'd say but it's heading that way.

Alternatively, take the last year of un-mad house preices (porobably 1997, increase it by about 20% (for inflation) and that is probably the base price. But it will hover there for about 5 years, so don't rush into it.

[hammer]

Wait until property tax rates are known.

Wait until 100,000 empty properties are either let or sold.

Wait until house prices reach stablisation at the bottom of the curve.

Calculate rent. Calculate 10% return. Pay nothing over this figure.

[cyberianpan]

Ronan Lyons says this looks like a trend as the increase correlates with decrease of effective stock:

We can go one better, though, and say that it looks more structural than seasonal. The main reason rents were falling so fast was that the total stock available to rent had quadrupled from 6,000 in mid-2007 to almost 24,000 in mid-2009. Since then, the stock to rent has fallen by 20% on average – and significantly more (up to 50%) in some parts of the country (e.g. Dublin city centre, Galway city). The second graph, below, shows the change in rents in January across each of the 16 regional markets, compared to the contraction in supply in that market since mid-2009.

Though of course there's massive latent stock out there... not now on the rental market

There may be supply waiting in the wings. The number of vacant properties in the country has been estimated at 300,000. If even just 10% found its way on to the rental market in a hurry (say, following news that rents has bottomed out – gulp!), that could push rents further down. More generally, if developers are sitting on property pre-NAMA transfer, regardless of whether the properties are transferred to NAMA or not, they will ultimately find their way back on to the market, either rental or sales.

However even leaving aside that bizarre overhang... there's this:

http://www.daft.ie/report/?utm_sourc...report_q4_2009

To analyse the rental market using traditional instruments of supply, demand and return-on-investment can only take us so far. A significant section of the market is being kept afloat by massive public subsidy through rent supplement, the Rental Accommodation Scheme and the prospective social leasing arrangements. The escalating proportion of rent-subsidised tenants (estimated to be between a third and half of all tenancies) is such that traditional demarcations between 'public' and 'private' are no longer illuminating. Supply, demand and ROI are increasingly determined by public policy, not alleged free-acting market agents.

So the ball is doubly in the government's court....

cYp