Ireland's Fiscal Deficit to GDP Ratio Discrepancy

[Cassandra Syndrome]

Ireland's Budget Deficit for 2009 was 24.64 Billion Euro. However when it comes to internationally measuring our fiscal deficit the government uses General Government Balance. Here's a letter outlining the prediction from the Department of Finance back in October.

http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/...astrlett09.pdf

Page 12 of this report gives the general heading of government receipts and government expenditure and blance. It is estimated at 19.26 Billion.

http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/...nuary_2010.pdf

The 5 - 6 Billion Euro of a difference in the figures is because of the following.

The 4 Billion transferred into Anglo Irish is excluded.

7 Billion was transferred into Bank of Ireland and AIB. This money was taking from the National Pension Reserves Fund, which had a balance of 16 Billion Euro in it. 3 Billion was transferred from the exchequer into the Pension fund and this 3 million is not part of the General Government Balance.
There are about 500 Million Euro from other central government accounts that are not included in the GGB.
So overall from the Central Government the Fiscal Deficit is reduced by 7.5 Billion to suit the GGB.

Also part of the GGB, is local government balances. This will be about 200 Million. The balance on the Social Insurance Fund for the year is also factored in. That is 2.5 Billion of a deficit.

So the General Government Balance will be between a deficit of 18 and 20 Billion.

http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/...astricht09.pdf

This will mean the international official fiscal deficit to GDP will be between 10.5% and 12.5%

The official fiscal deficit of GNP will be between 13.3% and 16%.

Adding in the Bank injections (7 Billion out of 11) makes a difference of an extra 5%.

Mad or what?

[Tombo]

Ireland's Budget Deficit for 2009 was 24.64 Billion Euro. However when it comes to internationally measuring our fiscal deficit the government uses General Government Balance. Here's a letter outlining the prediction from the Department of Finance back in October.

http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/...astrlett09.pdf

Page 12 of this report gives the general heading of government receipts and government expenditure and blance. It is estimated at 19.26 Billion.

http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/...nuary_2010.pdf

The 5 - 6 Billion Euro of a difference in the figures is because of the following.

The 4 Billion transferred into Anglo Irish is excluded.

7 Billion was transferred into Bank of Ireland and AIB. This money was taking from the National Pension Reserves Fund, which had a balance of 16 Billion Euro in it. 3 Billion was transferred from the exchequer into the Pension fund and this 3 million is not part of the General Government Balance.
There are about 500 Million Euro from other central government accounts that are not included in the GGB.
So overall from the Central Government the Fiscal Deficit is reduced by 7.5 Billion to suit the GGB.

Also part of the GGB, is local government balances. This will be about 200 Million. The balance on the Social Insurance Fund for the year is also factored in. That is 2.5 Billion of a deficit.

So the General Government Balance will be between a deficit of 18 and 20 Billion.

http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/...astricht09.pdf

This will mean the international official fiscal deficit to GDP will be between 10.5% and 12.5%

The official fiscal deficit of GNP will be between 13.3% and 16%.

Adding in the Bank injections (7 Billion out of 11) makes a difference of an extra 5%.

Mad or what?

Notwithstanding the, errrr, "redployment" of NPRF assets, all this will result in increased debt issuance, so it will all come out in the wash so to speak.

As most Irish households now understand to their regret, you can get away with some creative income accounting, but you can't hide the debt.

[markeys]

Sure did'nt/aren't we creating some sort of vehicle that will magically make the debt appear somewhere else besides on the account of Ireland? What, you mean FF have been lying to the nation? I don't believe it!

[absconded]

They might be cooking the books to give a relatively rosy picture, but they can´t hide the truth for ever. The proof of the pudding will be savage wage cuts, mammoth unemployment and emigration by even middleaged people. Families et al. Lock Stock & Barrel. It´s a wasteland on the horizon. Think Zimbabwe. (Who only have a debt of $5 Billion).

[Cassandra Syndrome]

Ireland's Budget Deficit for 2009 was 24.64 Billion Euro. However when it comes to internationally measuring our fiscal deficit the government uses General Government Balance. Here's a letter outlining the prediction from the Department of Finance back in October.

http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/...astrlett09.pdf

Page 12 of this report gives the general heading of government receipts and government expenditure and blance. It is estimated at 19.26 Billion.

http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/...nuary_2010.pdf

The 5 - 6 Billion Euro of a difference in the figures is because of the following.

The 4 Billion transferred into Anglo Irish is excluded.

7 Billion was transferred into Bank of Ireland and AIB. This money was taking from the National Pension Reserves Fund, which had a balance of 16 Billion Euro in it. 3 Billion was transferred from the exchequer into the Pension fund and this 3 million is not part of the General Government Balance.
There are about 500 Million Euro from other central government accounts that are not included in the GGB.
So overall from the Central Government the Fiscal Deficit is reduced by 7.5 Billion to suit the GGB.

Also part of the GGB, is local government balances. This will be about 200 Million. The balance on the Social Insurance Fund for the year is also factored in. That is 2.5 Billion of a deficit.

So the General Government Balance will be between a deficit of 18 and 20 Billion.

http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/...astricht09.pdf

This will mean the international official fiscal deficit to GDP will be between 10.5% and 12.5%

The official fiscal deficit of GNP will be between 13.3% and 16%.

Adding in the Bank injections (7 Billion out of 11) makes a difference of an extra 5%.

Mad or what?

I normally throw rocks at the EU, but they did not let the government away with subtracting those illicit loans to the banks for the sake of "statistics"

[hammer]

If they keep "massaging" the figures we will soon be in a surplus and then we`ll have the confidence to spend the money we dont have and just ignore our personal debt

I see Eamon O` Cuiv saying it takes up to 14 weeks now for the unemployed to get their entitlements. More massaging of live register. Over 50,000 waiting

[charley]

Sure did'nt/aren't we creating some sort of vehicle that will magically make the debt appear somewhere else besides on the account of Ireland? What, you mean FF have been lying to the nation? I don't believe it!

is this the vehicle

or the 'green version'