Quote Originally Posted by toughbutfair View Post
Cassandra - don't economists nearly always say recession is when GDP declines 2 quarters running? so technically we aren't in one anymore.

Don't get me wrong - I don't believe in formulas. I view it in simple terms, when jobs are being lossed more than created, and people's level of wealth is decreasing, then we are in recession regardless of GDP movements.
Technically it is 2 quarters of negative growth in GDP. Yeah when jobs are still being lost and wealth still decreases who cares if there is a small increase? Government Expenditure and shrinking imports can skew GDP. Our economy was built around 6% growth per annum for the last 15 years, so a modest 1% growth would feel like a recession.

Private investment needs to increase again. This is capital expenditure on machines, stock etc that occurs while the consumer is still cutting back. As capital expenditure occurs employment increases and then the people involved in this see their incomes increasing and invest more and start consuming.

Our Exports as impressive as they are are to reliant on multinationals whose profits and inputs are foreign. Its just about keeping people employed so that they consume themselves. Its not ideal but it is better than nothing.