***Ireland: Nama back in the headlines***
Expect to see increasing numbers of stories on the Nama valuation proposals etc essentially indicating that the Irish govt/Nama has an unenviable Hobson's choice; it can either overpay for commercial real estate or value it more accurately thus forcing the banks to take bigger hits transferring the loans to Nama and thus require more capital which is likely to be only forthcoming from the govt and thus send the banks into the questionably beneficial position that is majority government ownership. Lots of 'thuses' there but that's the causality.. This story will run for a while but I rather think a Rhadamanthine government position, while politically preferable, is practicably untenable and that the so-called compromise will be the banks take the full 30% haircut - more than has been indicated to date - and the government turns a blind eye to the true value of CRE. It's worth noting that the IPD maintains that average CRE has fallen 53% from peak with development land off 80%.