Nobody can be sure how much tax will increase or decrease when tax is put on products (especially due to NI).
Why not experiment. Cut price of ciggies,drink etc down to a level so that it wouldn't be worth your while going to NI which also makes black market less attractive, and see if tax take goes up or down. If it loses us tax income, then simply switch back after a couple of months.
Using trial and error we can find the optimum tax level on goods.



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