Central Bank Bulletin

[Dreaded_Estate]

https://www.centralbank.ie/data/QrtB...%20Comment.pdf

Hopes are rising that the downturn in the broader international and European economies may have reached a turning point. However, Ireland’s recovery from recession will be slower than elsewhere.

The Bank’s latest forecasts suggest that, while the pace of decline in economic activity is moderating, the weakness in Irish economic activity is set to persist into the first-half of 2010.

The fallout from the unwinding of the large domestic imbalances created during the earlier boom will continue to restrain economic activity and significant headwinds to recovery remain in place. These are projected to ease only gradually, and recovery, when it emerges, will at first most likely be modest.

The outlook remains subject to considerable uncertainty. Following a decline in GDP of 3 per cent last year, a further decline of around 8 percent
seems likely in 2009. While there is the prospect of stabilisation followed by a return to modest growth during the course of next year, GDP for 2010 as a whole is projected to be about 2.25 per cent lower than in 2009.

[Cassandra Syndrome]

Internationally the turning point is from recession to a full blown depression.

[seabhcan]

If NAMA goes ahead then "the unwinding of the large domestic imbalances" is likely to slow and continue over decades.

[toughbutfair]

they also pointed out that from 2001 -2007 social welfare increased 100%, child allowance quadroupled and spending on PS doubled.

There will be massive cuts for the above 3 groups, rightfully so.