The €22bn hole

[Dreaded_Estate]

Assuming that the hole in the budget stabilizes at €22bn, which I think is very optimistic.

I'd love if this thread didn't turn into another public sector bashing thread or a thread advocating retrospectively taxing insolvent developers.
Realistically how are we going to close the €22bn hole?

Some basic costed tax measures and cuts that have been floated at various stages by the government and others are

1% increase standard rate - €500m
1% increase in top rate - €250m
1% on a new top rate - less than €200m but depends on where it kicks in
1% increase in corporation tax about €300m
Property Tax - €1.5bn (€1,000 on average per house)
Carbon Tax - €500m
Wealth Tax - hard to know but I think €2bn max
(France has a wealth tax of up to 1.8% of assets and it generate less than €3.7bn, a similar scheme in Ireland would generate less)

5% cut in PS wages - about €1bn
5% cut in ALL social welfare - about €1bn
10,000 redundancies - approximately €500m

NAMA is also irrelevant to this debate IMO because the hole exists only in the current day to day spending so that is where the cure has to come from.

So how do you get €22bn out of that? I'm starting to think it might be impossible.

[atlantic]

Dreaded we are broke ,they can pull a bit here a bit there ,its going to be swallowed up by more unemployment and government waste.They will have to keep borrowing until nobody wants to lend anymore and then default.

Assuming that the hole in the budget stabilizes at €22bn, which I think is very optimistic.

I'd love if this thread didn't turn into another public sector bashing thread or a thread advocating retrospectively taxing insolvent developers.
Realistically how are we going to close the €22bn hole?

Some basic costed tax measures and cuts that have been floated at various stages by the government and others are

1% increase standard rate - €500m
1% increase in top rate - €250m
1% on a new top rate - less than €200m but depends on where it kicks in
1% increase in corporation tax about €300m
Property Tax - €1.5bn (€1,000 on average per house)
Carbon Tax - €500m
Wealth Tax - hard to know but I think €2bn max
(France has a wealth tax of up to 1.8% of assets and it generate less than €3.7bn, a similar scheme in Ireland would generate less)

5% cut in PS wages - about €1bn
5% cut in ALL social welfare - about €1bn
10,000 redundancies - approximately €500m

NAMA is also irrelevant to this debate IMO because the hole exists only in the current day to day spending so that is where the cure has to come from.

So how do you get €22bn out of that? I'm starting to think it might be impossible.

[Cassandra Syndrome]

Cut VAT to stimulate the economy. Cut taxes.
Next on the household budget is mortgages. Give people 1 year to pay interest only as part of NAMA deal. Same on all loans.

Radical changes needed to Public Service. Eliminate what is completely ineffective to the multiplier effect.

We need to get people consuming again. People consume when they have dispoisble income.
When they consume, suppliers produce and invest, employ more people and provide for emploment for their suppliers and people involved in the investment.

[Noel Dwyer]

Assuming that the hole in the budget stabilizes at €22bn, which I think is very optimistic.

I'd love if this thread didn't turn into another public sector bashing thread or a thread advocating retrospectively taxing insolvent developers.
Realistically how are we going to close the €22bn hole?

Some basic costed tax measures and cuts that have been floated at various stages by the government and others are

1% increase standard rate - €500m
1% increase in top rate - €250m
1% on a new top rate - less than €200m but depends on where it kicks in
1% increase in corporation tax about €300m
Property Tax - €1.5bn (€1,000 on average per house)
Carbon Tax - €500m
Wealth Tax - hard to know but I think €2bn max
(France has a wealth tax of up to 1.8% of assets and it generate less than €3.7bn, a similar scheme in Ireland would generate less)

5% cut in PS wages - about €1bn
5% cut in ALL social welfare - about €1bn
10,000 redundancies - approximately €500m

NAMA is also irrelevant to this debate IMO because the hole exists only in the current day to day spending so that is where the cure has to come from.

So how do you get €22bn out of that? I'm starting to think it might be impossible.

Well I think they've said that there won't be a property tax in this budget. Also Lenihan has said there won't be tax hikes. I also think a wealth tax is unlikely at least in the near future. What I don't really get is. The "hole" is increasing all the time over the last few months, yet their target amount for cuts stays the same.

Do you think closing off tax reliefs woulds raise a large amount? I've often heard Vincent Browne saying the top earners pay 27% of their income in tax, when the actual rate is 41% I believe. No idea if what he says is true.

[dunno]

There will sooner be a squadron of pigs overhead than FF introducing a wealth tax.

[Noel Dwyer]

Of course it's very possible our current Goverment won't be the ones delivering the next budget, so maybe what Lenihan says is irrelevant.

[edifice.]

Offset some of the Social welfare payments against labour costs for state projects. Equally offset welfare payments against certain health services like carers for the elderly etc. Concentrate on productivity and effiency, not cutbacks.

[Bi ciuin]

Shame on you all.

Dont you know by Voting Yes to Lisbon you are also voting yes to recovery and yes to jobs!

Dont ask about details, just ignore reality and join the rest of the sheep and vote Yes!

[Sync]

The first step really should be the financial reps from FF, Labour and FG to sit down in November, agree on the figure of savings that need to be reached, and then tick off the large items that everyone agrees on (like presumably Carbon Tax) then go to the electorate with their suggestions on how to come up with the remaining say 16 billion. Won't happen but that's how it should work.

[Baron von Biffo]

5% cut in PS wages - about €1bn
5% cut in ALL social welfare - about €1bn
10,000 redundancies - approximately €500m

5% cut in PS wages - less than €500M
5% cut in all social welfare - less than €800M
10,000 redundancies - cost €500M+

Increased costs of social welfare due to downstream job losses €?
Loss of revenue due to downstream business collapse €?
Increased health costs €?
Increased justice costs €?
Damage to long term investment through education cuts €?

Lives destroyed?