No margin for error on Nama

[Stroke]

Once upon a time a man appeared in a village and announced to the villagers that he would buy monkeys for Eur 10 each

The villagers, knowing there were many monkeys, went to the forest and started catching them. The man bought thousands at Eur10 and, as supply started to diminish, the villagers stopped their effort.

He then announced that he would buy monkeys at Eur20 each. This renewed the villagers efforts and they started catching monkeys again. Soon the supply diminished and people started going back to their farms. The offer increased to Eur25 each and the supply of monkeys became so scarce it was an effort to even find a monkey, let alone catch it!

The man now announced that he would buy monkeys at Eur50 each! However, since he had to go to the city on some business, his assistant would buy on his behalf. The assistant told the villagers, "Look at all these monkeys in the big cage that my boss has already collected. I will sell them to you at Eur35 and when my boss returns, you can sell them to him for Eur50." The villagers rounded up all their savings and bought all the monkeys for Eur90 billion. They never saw the man or his assistant again, only lots and lots of monkeys!

Now you have a better understanding of how the NATIONAL ASSET MANAGEMENT AGENCY works!!!

[Outlander]

To make groupthink testable, Irving Janis devised eight symptoms indicative of groupthink (1977).

1. Illusions of invulnerability creating excessive optimism and encouraging risk taking.
2. Rationalising warnings that might challenge the group's assumptions.
3. Unquestioned belief in the morality of the group, causing members to ignore the consequences of their actions.
4. Stereotyping those who are opposed to the group as weak, evil, biased, spiteful, disfigured, impotent, or stupid.
5. Direct pressure to conform placed on any member who questions the group, couched in terms of "disloyalty".
6. Self censorship of ideas that deviate from the apparent group consensus.
7. Illusions of unanimity among group members, silence is viewed as agreement.
8. Mindguards — self-appointed members who shield the group from dissenting information.

Groupthink, resulting from the symptoms listed above, results in defective decision making. That is, consensus-driven decisions are the result of the following practices of groupthinking[5]

1. Incomplete survey of alternatives
2. Incomplete survey of objectives
3. Failure to examine risks of preferred choice
4. Failure to reevaluate previously rejected alternatives
5. Poor information search
6. Selection bias in collecting information
7. Failure to work out contingency plans.

Groupthink - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Sound familiar?

The last point is particularly relevant - if NAMA goes ahead, what are the contingency plans?

[Nerdfest]

Once upon a time a man appeared in a village and announced to the villagers that he would buy monkeys for Eur 10 each

The villagers, knowing there were many monkeys, went to the forest and started catching them. The man bought thousands at Eur10 and, as supply started to diminish, the villagers stopped their effort.

He then announced that he would buy monkeys at Eur20 each. This renewed the villagers efforts and they started catching monkeys again. Soon the supply diminished and people started going back to their farms. The offer increased to Eur25 each and the supply of monkeys became so scarce it was an effort to even find a monkey, let alone catch it!

The man now announced that he would buy monkeys at Eur50 each! However, since he had to go to the city on some business, his assistant would buy on his behalf. The assistant told the villagers, "Look at all these monkeys in the big cage that my boss has already collected. I will sell them to you at Eur35 and when my boss returns, you can sell them to him for Eur50." The villagers rounded up all their savings and bought all the monkeys for Eur90 billion. They never saw the man or his assistant again, only lots and lots of monkeys!

Now you have a better understanding of how the NATIONAL ASSET MANAGEMENT AGENCY works!!!

Ah, a monkey boom. They're the best kind

[Libero]

Ah, a monkey boom. They're the best kind

[FONT=Arial][/FONT]

[bormotello]

Two fundamental errors here by Ronan Lyons.

1. He says "particularly if the taxpayer is expected to foot the bill."
The taxpayer is not expected to foot the bill, the banks are expected to foot the bill.

2. He says "If the fall is slightly bigger than 47 per cent on average – say 55 per cent – we need a 36 per cent increase in the next decade, not a 10 per cent one"

For the 10% figure he includes the 5% risksharing bonds in his calculations, but for his 36% increase he does not, thereby increasing the differences between the two figures.

Not good enough for an "economist" trying to give a fair representation of the facts.

One fundamental error

Banks will pay bill only if they survive, but chances for them very small
Next year we will see a lot of problems for banks due personal defaults and because NAMA was last chance for them to take money from government, country will be not able to afford to save them(nationalize) second time
Second, as learned today construction industry started to return to business as usual
Few major developments announced recently. It means that all property assets for NAMA are worthless.
Taxpayers will buy all unsold stock, developers will build more and taxpayers will be left with huge amount of properties, which nobody ever will buy