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About LinkBacksIt would be quicker (and more enjoyable) than from Mullingar though!Originally Posted by Paddylekker
It would be quicker (and more enjoyable) than from Mullingar though!
Last August.
Je suis un loo-lah
These three reports are very interesting in terms of modelling the correction over the next decade, and the factors behind it:
http://www.ucd.ie/economics/staff/mkell ... ousing.pdf
http://www.ucd.ie/economics/staff/mkell ... using1.pdf
http://www.ucd.ie/economics/staff/mkell ... using3.pdf
Howver, what worries me is this. Whilst he argues that the there are over 40 markets that gave up around 70 percent of the boom gain over a period of decline of around nine years, why didn't Britian (comparable to us, sort of) follow this example?
A UK-esque drop of 15% before things take off again would be a disappointment.
You cant solve the problem now its too late. Also the Government are responsible for failing to implement the Bacon report. Prices were beginning to correct in 2001 and they then pulled the plug on the reports recommendations that were being implemented.
Irish Property/Finance/Economic Discussion Website:
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i like your optimism, lets just wait for a market correction. i dont think trying to create widespread panic will help the situation.
Do you think there was anything that could have been done to fix the Dot Com bubble once it was already out of control?
When Plumbers and bricklayers are buying houses for investment in the hope of continous appreciation in value, then the market is seriously distorted, just like when computer programmers were being given 'millions' of dollars worth of stock as payment
Actual morality is doing what is right regardless of what you're told. Religious morality is doing what you're told, regardless of if it's right.
As someone in a couple with a combined income over 40K and renting, I've no intention whatsoever of buying in the Republic within the next year.
Much better value to be had in renting, at least until another 20% in real terms comes off the price of Southern housing stock.
My concern right now is how long will it take for the Southern market to take the Northern market (where I own property) down with it.
There are already initial signs of a potential downturn there, and the longterm economic outlook for NI is obviously nowhere near as healthy as the admittedly shakey Republic's outlook.
I guess this is all about the timing now. Do I bank on the gap between the two markets closing further for another six months or a year and risk getting caught in a sliding market there, or do I cash in now, sit on the assets while waiting for the Southern market to bottom out, and risk missing out on further capital gains?
Please sign the petition to establish a national day of celebration in honour of the vision of the United Irishmen!
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The government can tinker around the edges, but the numbers are so big now that nothing can realistically be done. The over dependence on construction should have been controlled 5 years ago, we've left it consume our economy.
i like your optimism, lets just wait for a market correction. i dont think trying to create widespread panic will help the situation.
How am I promoting widespread panic? There are options available to prevent a complete rout and to preserve jobs, to a certain extent, in the construction industry. I am unsure of the overall benefits of such moves whether they would be and how practical the moves needed would be to implement.
Off the top of my head:
Higher Capital Gains tax reformed in such a way as to make it less economical for people to sell second and subsequent properties. Also done in such a way as to make the rate lessen by a % for every extra year they hold onto it.
The Department of Finance would need to get the information from the banks as to whether this would stretch people with more than one mortgage to breaking point in such numbers as to make the idea pointless.
To prevent people being routed by high interest rates then mortgage interest relief for EVERYONE (including the investors!!!) would need to be raised in line or just below the rate rises (depending on the known breaking points of a predefined %).
If the above was done God knows how much it would cost. But it would allow the construction to continue building at a reduced capacity thus deflecting heavy job losses. Thus the industry would still be generating a tax revenue for the government (albeit at a much reduced rate). The construction industry would have to reduce prices to a level where they can start selling houses again. They are able to cut prices by colossal amounts and still make a good living.
Government would also buy copious amounts of housing stock to pass on at reduced rates to the population through the guise that they are being nice and doing something about the affordability problem. Just remember its our money to begin with!
Also a BIG bit of public borrowing into civil engineering projects would help prevent the job losses as being one big hit and would delay the losses in the hope that the wider economy would be able to absorb some.
CONTRAST THE ABOVE WITH BELOW
This all leaves people who bought in the past 4 years, at least, stuck. Negative equity.
But the construction industry, though culled, would survive.
Will Bertie and the boys do it? Depends on cost and practicality. Does Cowen have a plan for this. You`d be sure he has some sort of plan for action. Or .... is it like he said on TV "boom and busts" are gone. Does he expect Europe to bail us out? Its is possible with Germany beginning to boom after all think of all the CAP subsidies we have gotten through the years all while Germany was in recession. I do think the Germans would want us learn something from our mistakes though and would let us suffer for a while before they do anything, if they do anything at all!
On the other hand to completely restore our international competitiveness, in the words of Professor Morgan Kelly "a period of high unemployment is needed".
http://news.todayfm.com/story.asp?sid=12964
[color=darkblue]The country's biggest bank is predicting that 10 thousand jobs could be lost in the construction sector next year.
AIB says there are increasing concerns about future employment growth in manufacturing and construction in particular.
But it's report on the future of the Irish Labour Market says that while growth rates are set to slow there's no need to be unduly pessimistic[/color].
Irish Property/Finance/Economic Discussion Website:
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I reckon, in the event of a housing bust severely hurting the economy, people will start looking at heavy taxes on those owning property abroad. Somthing like 50% of the value of the foreign property would possibly be the figure seen to be in the national interest.
They might use that tax windfall to build excellence in the economy via high-level training, plus a good social welfare hike for those made jobless by the collapse.
When you see the words "Mises" or "Hayek" in someone's post, just ask yourself: do I really want to ban paper money and go back to gold?
You have to pity the kind of people who buy into conspiracy theories. I find the following to be the saddest words on the internet: "Re: connection between Bilderberg puppet lady gaga and viral outbreak in ukraine "
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