Irish Property/Finance/Economic Discussion Website:
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After the election back to the mundane drag of daily life! Anyway, a couple of economists in the last few days including one working for the construction industry have made predictions of further drops in house values in the future. One construction industry economist predicted a fall of 5% this year and 10% next year.
Even more ominous for the entire economy is the comments this morning of the head of the German central bank that the ECB will no longer be using coded language in signaling interest rate policy and that the tightening interest rate cycle has much further to go - 5% interest rates here we come!
Jaysus at this rate Sean Dunne will need to go higher than the Empire State at Jurys.
If the Construction Industry is saying minus 15% over next two years, it really is time to put the tin helmets on.
True,
According to www.itulip.com , there’s going to be rate rises for a lot longer than the general public expect (I think they mentioned that this was going to be a global phenomenon).
I’m not a financial expert myself, but this site successfully predicted every macro economic event (and its timing) since 1998.
The general principle is the bubble theory of economics which has been getting worse since the 70s.
Labasta
The comma got included in your link. That will prevent the page from displaying. You might do a quick edit because it's an interesting site.
http://www.itulip.com/
But glee in those of us who have bided our time. Keep coming down is what I sayOriginally Posted by Eddiepops
Indeed, I just don't understand the mechanism of a soft landing - it ignores the fact that the very concept of house prices going down induces utter terror in every single person who has bought in the last decade - I know coz everytime I mention it I get asked to leave their lovely overpriced homes :/And as the over-leveraged BTL brigade take their rental properties out of the rental market and try to sell them before their value drops any further.
This is exactly what we are seeing now, with a massive increase in supply in properties for sale in recent months (see daftwatch), a marked slowdown in the number of properties being sold, and a rapid increase in rents (up to 10% in some areas). Fundamentals, fundamentals, fundamentals.
Eventually, in a few years time, the market will stabilise to historical and international norms, where net rental yields (after 1 month voids and maintenance costs) reach 7%. This will require rents to more than double, prices to more than halve, or a combination of the two.
There has never been a "soft-landing" from a speculative asset bubble. Never, in all of human history, and in asset bubbles going back to the 13th century. Never, ever, ever. The Soft Landing is a myth, a cruel lie, a chimera peddled by VIs to squeeze that last drop of foolish money out of the market before the end.
Yeah,
As far as macro economics go, it is the only site I listen to.
In a nutshell, they basically say that since the early 70s global monetary expansion has increased at an ever higher rate in relation to global asset production. This extra money must go somewhere, creating bubbles. They reckon the next one after housing (already started actually since 2005) will be in alternative energy and infrastructure.
An interesting site indeed.
what could the other parties do? If the other parties started predicting doom and gloom across the nation before the election, im not sure that would bode well with the public.
also, what can we do or the next government do to stop this? all the doomsayers ive heard, not one points to a direction where we can solve this could-be crash. its all negative, where is the positive ideas to either prevent or ease this problem?
The worst thing the government can do is to try and stop the crash. This will only draw the event out further. The best we can hope for is a quick fall in property prices which might restore some competitiveness in the economy and we can start being a export driven economy again creating real wealth.
"I will remind the House, perhaps in 12 or 18 months, when prices have again increased by 25% or 30%, that they were told this by the Leader of the House" - Senator Donie Cassidy (April 10th 2008)
At this stage thats the case.
The government should have prevented land hoarding. The government should have prevented flipping. The government should have evened the playing field in terms of using tax payers money to subsidise investors.
The Government needs too deal with issues in regard planning and zoned and agricultural land.
Irish Property/Finance/Economic Discussion Website:
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