Rates have a lot further to rise yet....
Eurozone M3 growth is still accelerating, asset markets all over the world are unbalanced with far too much liquidity sloshing around, the German and Japanese slumps are well over, China is now exporting inflation rather than deflation, commodities futures are soaring, the BoJ has embarked on a normalisation of rates which will kill the Yen carry trade....
Rates will have to go tight to soak up the rampant liquidity. Don't say I didn't warn ya...
Je suis un loo-lah
Yeah M3 money supply rose again last month to 10.9% while at the same time the core eurozone economies are growing strongly and unemployment is at a historic low, even France and Italy have started to show good growth! But try and get a financial institution here to speak on their expectations of future interest rates -not a hope! All they will say is that there will be a another rise to 4% and 'possibly' another .25% to 4.25%. They are taking the Irish people for mugs. ECB interest rate policy and its impact upon the economy is the elephant in the room of election 2007Originally Posted by Sidewinder
The Central Bank has accepted that there is overvaluation in the Irish Residential Property market up to 60 per cent in some cases.
The OECD which indicated that Irish Property is overvalued by 15%
the economist calculated the overvaluation at 20%
it should hardly come as a surprise that the market is in the process of correcting itself
It was posted on his site some months ago (can't find link, tá brón orm) that if the ECB rate goes to 4.5% that the entire 26 county economy - not to mention the housing market - will be toast.
Do posters still think that's a realistic appraisal of the current economic situation?
"Peace without justice is a field sown with violence." - Eduardo Galeano
NÍ SAOIRSE GO SAOIRSE LUCHT OIBRE
Yes - and I was the one who posted it!
You can see what impact the rates at 3.75% are presently having on the housing market, this will feed directly into the construction sector as we are seeing some anecdotal evidence of, and it is our overdependance on the construction sector that will drag down the enire economy with it. Sustained interest rates of 4.5% + will bring down the economy, if not even less than this!
I thought we had a separate thread for the Spanish property market but maybe it was here...
Spanish pass law to curb property speculation and bring down prices:
More: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6646865.stmThe Spanish Parliament has passed a law aimed at controlling property speculators whom the government blames for spiralling house prices.
Official documents will list everybody who has owned any piece of land in the five years before its development.
Senior local government officials will also have to declare their assets.
A number of local officials have been arrested recently on allegations of fraud, money laundering and corruption linked to housing projects.
In one of the biggest cases, nearly 60 people were arrested in the southern resort of Marbella, including a former mayor, several councillors, developers, art dealers and even a well-known singer.
Where did I say it should be abolished? - I said it needs to be reformed (as in restructured) to be more fair.Why should it "obviously" change? It's one of the most progressive, fairest revenue sources we have.
Stamp duty doesn't alter the prices of houses, the fundamentals of supply and demand do that.
If supply and demand says that houses are worth €350K of a buyer's money and stamp duty is at 10%, the seller will move his house for a price of €315K.
If stamp duty is abolished but the supply and demand figure doesn't change, the seller will move his house for a price of €350K.
End of.
The only people who could benefit from the reform of stamp duty would be the tiny number of sellers who do not become buyers immediately after.
And everybody's income taxes will have to rise to make up for the shortfall from the loss of our fairest tax.
For example that when a house value moves from one band to another the increased rate should only be payable on the difference between the two bands (like most taxing systems).
Stamp Duty is the forgotten issue of the election. The new government whoever they are should change the tax in a minor way (paying the high rate only on the potion over the limit and raising the exemption for first-timers. they should do it quick and say that is it for the duration of the Dail.
http://www.independent.ie/business/iris ... 81892.html
House prices 'must fall to become affordable again'
Estate agent economist says that cuts in stamp duty will not help
Brendan Keenan Reports Here on a conversation with Derek Brawn of HOK
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