Dublin property prices falling by €4,500 a month

[Coles]

The only thing I'd disagree with that what-if about is the timing. It's based on house prices falling from mid-next year, when the reality is they've been falling since late last year.

I agree with you JCSkinner (for once :wink: ). His timing of the crash was way off... The market is already crashing.

[Johnny]

The market is already crashing.

How do you call it short/long-term, a chara?

Do you think the 30% prediction was conservative?

[cooperation]

The last crash in ENgland saw house price cut by 30%

[JCSkinner]

30-60%. Depending on area and accommodation type. Even central Dublin houses will fall substantially.

[MontgomeryClift]

The 'jobs may be lost' in construction is a bit behind the times too. Anybody who's spent a few days on a building site recently will tell you about the rash of lads walking in enquiring about work, yet there's no work there for them.

[Johnny]

The 'jobs may be lost' in construction is a bit behind the times too. Anybody who's spent a few days on a building site recently will tell you about the rash of lads walking in enquiring about work, yet there's no work there for them.

Also, the amount of "No Vacancies" signs on sites are noticably increasing.

[cooperation]

When developer stop building houses. The foreign workers will return home. Thus laeving rented accomodation aviable in a over burdened market. With house prices dropping to all time lows. As in England in the late 80's. There is also the fact that irelands gnp is made3 up of 30% by the construction industry, so a slow down will have a knock on effect throughout the economy.

[Coles]

The market is already crashing.

How do you call it short/long-term, a chara?

Do you think the 30% prediction was conservative?

Yes, as I'm sure you do too.

In the short term, I expect a surge of confidence after the election, where a relatively large number of sales are completed, and the vested interests will have one last shot at talking up the future. But the continuing rate rises will bring a bit of reality to the situation, and from then on it's down, down, down...

I would expect the Irish property market to experience a similar trend to that experienced by Finland, Norway, Holland and Denmark and for prices to be 40% less in six years time... But there are also a number of other long term issues that could prevent a recovery in six years time, most significantly a world wide recession and rising energy costs. The long dark night, I fear.

What are your thoughts, Johnny?

[Coles]

The 'jobs may be lost' in construction is a bit behind the times too. Anybody who's spent a few days on a building site recently will tell you about the rash of lads walking in enquiring about work, yet there's no work there for them.

Also, the amount of "No Vacancies" signs on sites are noticably increasing.

I'm a builder, and the extension/renovation market is holding up well (thanks to stamp duty).

[Sidewinder]

I would expect the Irish property market to experience a similar trend to that experienced by Finland, Norway, Holland and Denmark and for prices to be 40% less in six years time...

It's a point worth repeating over and over and over again, I think. The average punter is completely unaware of any property crash anywhere else, and only a few are vaguely aware of the English and Japanese crashes. Hardly anybody knows of all the other European bubbles over the last 30 years, as you rightly mentioned. Wasn't there one in Switzerland as well?

Anyway. Not one of them had falls less than 24%, IIRC. 25-35% is about the norm, with fairly spectacular busts in I think Finland and somewhere else that topped 40%. BUT - and this is the important bit - not one of them had a property boom that lasted anywhere near as long as ours, or where prices had deviated so far from trend.

We'll be lucky to get away with 40%, IMO, and probably a fairly long-drawn-out affair over 8 or 9 years before the bottom.