Dublin property prices falling by €4,500 a month

[asknoquestions]

What is the current best term to use to describe the current property situation?

I saw "property boom reversal" mentioned above but it seems like Newspeak.

"Property crash" is, I think too dramatic - you're not going to get the market falling by 3% a day like the stock market might and a crash is a sudden event, not something long and drawn out.

I like the term "Property bust". It fits in with the theory of the business cycle - boom, boom ... bust.

[Coles]

What is the current best term to use to describe the current property situation?

I saw "property boom reversal" mentioned above but it seems like Newspeak.

"Property crash" is, I think too dramatic - you're not going to get the market falling by 3% a day like the stock market might and a crash is a sudden event, not something long and drawn out.

I like the term "Property bust". It fits in with the theory of the business cycle - boom, boom ... bust.

If the 'correction' experienced in other similar economies is anything to go by then it will be a prolonged painful death where we stabalise in six years with 40% wiped off house prices.

[Johnny]

I saw "property boom reversal" mentioned above but it seems like Newspeak.

That Orwellian guff was being peddled by Gay Mitchell last week. No semantics can alter the facts that house prices ARE falling - and quite dramatically in some instances. Even if there isn't a complete crash, and they remain stagnant, they are effectively falling in real terms.

[Coles]

What is the current best term to use to describe the current property situation?

I saw "property boom reversal" mentioned above but it seems like Newspeak.

"Property crash" is, I think too dramatic - you're not going to get the market falling by 3% a day like the stock market might and a crash is a sudden event, not something long and drawn out.

I like the term "Property bust". It fits in with the theory of the business cycle - boom, boom ... bust.

If the 'correction' experienced in other similar economies is anything to go by then it will be a prolonged painful death where we stabalise in six years with 40% wiped off house prices.

Similar burst bubbles...

Netherlands 1978-1985 -50%
Finland 1989-1995 -46%
Japan 1991-2006 -43%
Norway 1987-1993 -39%
Switzerland 1990-2000 -39%
New Zealand 1980-1985 -37%
Denmark 1978-1982 -36%
Sweden 1979-1985 -35%

These figures are taken from (UCD Economics) Professor Morgan Kelly's article on the Irish Property market.

[blindjustice]

A soft landing is still possible many people are saying.

http://www.sbpost.ie/post/pages/p/story ... qqqx=1.asp

quote from the above article:

average annual house price inflation is likely to be in the region of 3 to 4 per cent and completions should fall back to around 70,000. Such an outcome would undoubtedly qualify as a soft landing.

According to the ESRI/PTSB report just out we are not getting this definition of a soft landing.

[Coles]

A soft landing is still possible many people are saying.

http://www.sbpost.ie/post/pages/p/story ... qqqx=1.asp

quote from the above article:

average annual house price inflation is likely to be in the region of 3 to 4 per cent and completions should fall back to around 70,000. Such an outcome would undoubtedly qualify as a soft landing.

According to the ESRI/PTSB report just out we are not getting this definition of a soft landing.

With a rental yield of 3%, maintainence costs, rising interest rates, and the risk of a sliding market, do you think 3-4% capital appreciation is sufficent to keep property investors in the buy-to-let market? Not a chance. They can get better returns with less risk from the bank. They would be fools to stay in the market.

[ibis]

With a rental yield of 3%, maintainence costs, rising interest rates, and the risk of a sliding market, do you think 3-4% capital appreciation is sufficent to keep property investors in the buy-to-let market? Not a chance. They can get better returns with less risk from the bank. They would be fools to stay in the market.

That's below the rate of inflation in the first place - unless they mean real, as opposed to nominal, price rises.

[Coles]

With a rental yield of 3%, maintainence costs, rising interest rates, and the risk of a sliding market, do you think 3-4% capital appreciation is sufficent to keep property investors in the buy-to-let market? Not a chance. They can get better returns with less risk from the bank. They would be fools to stay in the market.

That's below the rate of inflation in the first place - unless they mean real, as opposed to nominal, price rises.

All house price data has been done on nominal prices up to now so I'm sure that hasn't changed. Inflation is an issue no matter what asset or investment type you choose.

[pluralist]

Similar burst bubbles...

Netherlands 1978-1985 -50%
Finland 1989-1995 -46%
Japan 1991-2006 -43%
Norway 1987-1993 -39%
Switzerland 1990-2000 -39%
New Zealand 1980-1985 -37%
Denmark 1978-1982 -36%
Sweden 1979-1985 -35%

These figures are taken from (UCD Economics) Professor Morgan Kelly's article on the Irish Property market.

Thanks for posting that.

I wasn't even aware that so many European countries with similar(ish) populations to ours had suffered property market crashes in the relatively recent past (I knew about Japan and Switzerland, but not the others).

But then, that's hardly surprising given the influence of vested interests on certain media outlets in our country.

[rockofcashel]

you can also see it in the smaller towns as well, like Cashel as I've mentioned already. I'm beginning to notice "For Sale" signs (very big and garish ones actually, you wouldn't miss them), on sites which before this would have been started for development long ago.

People are jumping ship... big time

asknoquestions said

What is the current best term to use to describe the current property situation?

Um.. Fuc**d ?