Dublin property prices falling by €4,500 a month

[Kevin Doyle]

As long as Oil in Traded in Dollars it will be the reserve currency.
Wasn't Saddams effort to switch to Euro a fundamental reason for the US invasion?
China also owns a massive portion of America’s foreign dept and for now has no wish to see the dollar crumble. It still needs the US as its largest trading partner to help aid its massive modernisation programs.

The US treasury knows this. That is the only reason it allows, for now, the chimps utterly insane federal expenditure.

I will agree that the Dollar is approaching 'borrowed time' but is not there yet. China will bail out the dollar as long as it needs it IMHO.

In relation to the property market here, none of this will stop a crash. Especially as cheap credit is vanishing to counterbalance macroeconomic trends and the dollars slide.
The old axiom will especially hold true regarding America sneezing as well.

I cannot see any way out for the property market here beyond the Government going absolutely loopey and buying up the available properties in a social housing initiative which will cost billions and do untold damage to the economy.

[feargach]

The fact is, there's a fairly good case to be made for the ECB dropping interest rates to 1.5%

Extra employment will lower the tax burden on individuals while raising the tax income. Governments will need to borrow less, thus helping reduce future debt payments.

It would probably require a coordinated, actionable policy to force prices to remain stable. Basically anyone who raises prices loses all his profit to the CAB (or a similar body).

But again, let's get back to houses.

Still no hard info on prices, eh?

[Ponzi]

The fact is, there's a fairly good case to be made for the ECB dropping interest rates to 1.5%

Extra employment will lower the tax burden on individuals while raising the tax income. Governments will need to borrow less, thus helping reduce future debt payments.

It would probably require a coordinated, actionable policy to force prices to remain stable. Basically anyone who raises prices loses all his profit to the CAB (or a similar body).

But again, let's get back to houses.

Still no hard info on prices, eh?

Reducing the cost of borrowing is supposed to stimulate spending by increasing the supply of money in the economy. So increasing the supply of money and then introducing a bureaucratic 'price police' to inhibit price inflation seems a little perverse.

[ibis]

But again, let's get back to houses.

Still no hard info on prices, eh?

Hmm. What were these, then?

We can all get into the various economic arguments if we want but the fact remains that there are 250,000 uninhabited housing units in the state (for whatever reason) and prices are dropping - dramatically in some instances.
The below examples are unavoidable. Story

Address: 10 Westway Park, Blanchardstown, Dublin 1 Area: Blanchardstown
Old Price: 320000
New Price: 315000 Date Reduced: 08/12/2006
Link: http://www.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=279072

Address: 33 Clogher Road, Crumlin, Dublin 12 Area: Crumlin
Old Price: 381000
New Price: 370000 Date Reduced: 08/12/2006
Link: http://www.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=287773

Address: Glenalua, Cunningham Road Area: Dalkey
Old Price: 1750000
New Price: 1590000 Date Reduced: 08/12/2006
Link: http://www.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=286065

Address: 74 Curlew Road, Drimnagh, Dublin 12 Area: Drimnagh
Old Price: 381000
New Price: 370000 Date Reduced: 08/12/2006
Link: http://www.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=291891

Address: 31 Glasnevin Woods, Glasnevin , Dublin 1 Area: Glasnevin
Old Price: 410000
New Price: 398000 Date Reduced: 08/12/2006
Link: http://www.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=295322

Address: 172 Ballymun Road, Glasnevin, Dublin Area: Glasnevin
Old Price: 650000
New Price: 600000 Date Reduced: 08/12/2006
Link: http://www.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=287314

Address: 24 Rosedale, Tyrconnell Street Area: Inchicore
Old Price: 365000
New Price: 355000 Date Reduced: 08/12/2006
Link: http://www.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=277854

Address: Apt. 18 Cammock, Mount Brown, Dublin 8 Area: Kilmainham
Old Price: 290000
New Price: 275000 Date Reduced: 08/12/2006
Link: http://www.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=285532

Address: 64A Devenish Road, Kimmage, Dublin 12 Area: Kimmage
Old Price: 450000
New Price: 440000 Date Reduced: 08/12/2006
Link: http://www.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=288927

Address: 6 Foxborough Manor, Lucan Area: Lucan
Old Price: 410000
New Price: 395000 Date Reduced: 08/12/2006
Link: http://www.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=293120

Address: 78 Rosewood Grove, Lucan Area: Lucan
Old Price: 340000
New Price: 335000 Date Reduced: 08/12/2006
Link: http://www.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=277474

Address: 40 Foxborough Road, Lucan, Co. Dublin Area: Lucan
Old Price: 390000
New Price: 380000 Date Reduced: 08/12/2006
Link: http://www.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=277406

Address: 1 Muckross Green, Perrystown, Dublin 12 Area: Perrystown
Old Price: 635000
New Price: 600000 Date Reduced: 08/12/2006
Link: http://www.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=294202

Address: 48 Tayleurs Point, Rush Area: Rush
Old Price: 315000
New Price: 308000 Date Reduced: 07/12/2006
Link: http://www.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=297075

Address: 51 Temple Court, Santry, Dublin Area: Santry
Old Price: 355000
New Price: 345000 Date Reduced: 07/12/2006
Link: http://www.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=293387

Address: Apt. 6, Court Apartments Area: South City Centre
Old Price: 750000
New Price: 680000 Date Reduced: 08/12/2006
Link: http://www.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=295409

Address: Apt. 15 St. James's Court Area: South City Centre
Old Price: 340000
New Price: 330000 Date Reduced: 08/12/2006
Link: http://www.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=293546

Address: 15 Allen Park Drive, Stillorgan Area: Stillorgan
Old Price: 890000
New Price: 840000 Date Reduced: 08/12/2006
Link: http://www.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=286559

Address: 55 Limekiln Green, Walkinstown, Dublin 12 Area: Walkinstown
Old Price: 385000
New Price: 375000 Date Reduced: 08/12/2006
Link: http://www.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=282751

No, they don't look like dramatic drops - but a nominal drop of a few percent per year sustained for a few years, with inflation at a few percent, is a real drop of tens of percents.

[tonys]

But again, let's get back to houses.

Still no hard info on prices, eh?

Hmm. What were these, then?

We can all get into the various economic arguments if we want but the fact remains that there are 250,000 uninhabited housing units in the state (for whatever reason) and prices are dropping - dramatically in some instances.
The below examples are unavoidable. Story

Address: 10 Westway Park, Blanchardstown, Dublin 1 Area: Blanchardstown
Old Price: 320000
New Price: 315000 Date Reduced: 08/12/2006
Link: http://www.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=279072

Address: 33 Clogher Road, Crumlin, Dublin 12 Area: Crumlin
Old Price: 381000
New Price: 370000 Date Reduced: 08/12/2006
Link: http://www.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=287773

Address: Glenalua, Cunningham Road Area: Dalkey
Old Price: 1750000
New Price: 1590000 Date Reduced: 08/12/2006
Link: http://www.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=286065

Address: 74 Curlew Road, Drimnagh, Dublin 12 Area: Drimnagh
Old Price: 381000
New Price: 370000 Date Reduced: 08/12/2006
Link: http://www.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=291891

Address: 31 Glasnevin Woods, Glasnevin , Dublin 1 Area: Glasnevin
Old Price: 410000
New Price: 398000 Date Reduced: 08/12/2006
Link: http://www.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=295322

Address: 172 Ballymun Road, Glasnevin, Dublin Area: Glasnevin
Old Price: 650000
New Price: 600000 Date Reduced: 08/12/2006
Link: http://www.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=287314

Address: 24 Rosedale, Tyrconnell Street Area: Inchicore
Old Price: 365000
New Price: 355000 Date Reduced: 08/12/2006
Link: http://www.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=277854

Address: Apt. 18 Cammock, Mount Brown, Dublin 8 Area: Kilmainham
Old Price: 290000
New Price: 275000 Date Reduced: 08/12/2006
Link: http://www.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=285532

Address: 64A Devenish Road, Kimmage, Dublin 12 Area: Kimmage
Old Price: 450000
New Price: 440000 Date Reduced: 08/12/2006
Link: http://www.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=288927

Address: 6 Foxborough Manor, Lucan Area: Lucan
Old Price: 410000
New Price: 395000 Date Reduced: 08/12/2006
Link: http://www.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=293120

Address: 78 Rosewood Grove, Lucan Area: Lucan
Old Price: 340000
New Price: 335000 Date Reduced: 08/12/2006
Link: http://www.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=277474

Address: 40 Foxborough Road, Lucan, Co. Dublin Area: Lucan
Old Price: 390000
New Price: 380000 Date Reduced: 08/12/2006
Link: http://www.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=277406

Address: 1 Muckross Green, Perrystown, Dublin 12 Area: Perrystown
Old Price: 635000
New Price: 600000 Date Reduced: 08/12/2006
Link: http://www.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=294202

Address: 48 Tayleurs Point, Rush Area: Rush
Old Price: 315000
New Price: 308000 Date Reduced: 07/12/2006
Link: http://www.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=297075

Address: 51 Temple Court, Santry, Dublin Area: Santry
Old Price: 355000
New Price: 345000 Date Reduced: 07/12/2006
Link: http://www.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=293387

Address: Apt. 6, Court Apartments Area: South City Centre
Old Price: 750000
New Price: 680000 Date Reduced: 08/12/2006
Link: http://www.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=295409

Address: Apt. 15 St. James's Court Area: South City Centre
Old Price: 340000
New Price: 330000 Date Reduced: 08/12/2006
Link: http://www.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=293546

Address: 15 Allen Park Drive, Stillorgan Area: Stillorgan
Old Price: 890000
New Price: 840000 Date Reduced: 08/12/2006
Link: http://www.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=286559

Address: 55 Limekiln Green, Walkinstown, Dublin 12 Area: Walkinstown
Old Price: 385000
New Price: 375000 Date Reduced: 08/12/2006
Link: http://www.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=282751

No, they don't look like dramatic drops - but a nominal drop of a few percent per year sustained for a few years, with inflation at a few percent, is a real drop of tens of percents.

For these figures to mean anything, you’d have to know at what price did the last similar property, in the same area, sell for. These price changes may simply be reductions on inflated expectations, which would indicate a slow down of price increase, not necessarily real price reductions.

[ibis]

For these figures to mean anything, you’d have to know at what price did the last similar property, in the same area, sell for. These price changes may simply be reductions on inflated expectations, which would indicate a slow down of price increase, not necessarily real price reductions.

Good point. Actually, we would want to know the purchase price, of course. If those are people who bought in '96 selling out, they can afford to reduce their prices a long way while still making a nominal profit...

[feargach]

If those are people who bought in '96 selling out, they can afford to reduce their prices a long way while still making a nominal profit...

Not if they're one of the thousands who splurged their nominal profit by remortgaging to buy that new Beemer every year :P

[ibis]

If those are people who bought in '96 selling out, they can afford to reduce their prices a long way while still making a nominal profit...

Not if they're one of the thousands who splurged their nominal profit by remortgaging to buy that new Beemer every year :P

There's little one can do about folly....I often wonder just how widespread that is.

[feargach]

Well, all those mahoosive SUVs everywhere aren't being paid for with magic beans.

[ibis]

Well, all those mahoosive SUVs everywhere aren't being paid for with magic beans.

From an IFG press release:

* The proportion of regular home purchases has dropped to below 50% of all mortgage business, as the re-mortgage sector continues to grow rapidly. Within this group, there has been a significant change in trends over 2004, with over 96% (up from 90%) of the retail mortgage applicants choosing new homes over second-hand ones.
* Overall, IFG-Mortgage Broker Solutions estimate that the market has grown by over 50%.
* Applications continue to grow dramatically in size with an average level of almost €197,000 (up 19% from €169,000 in 2004) reflecting the increasing costs of trading up or building on an extension.
* A greater percentage of consumers are choosing to wrap all of the debts under a mortgage availing of interest rates of 3.5%, often selecting dual repayments terms.

The idea that more than 50% of mortgages being handed out are actually remortgages is rather scary...