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About LinkBacksTomorrow's (Saturday) 'the constituency' programme will be on Dublin Central. It is on Radio1 6.05-30pm.
Tomorrow's (Saturday) 'the constituency' programme will be on Dublin Central. It is on Radio1 6.05-30pm.
The only question here is can Bertie bring in a 2nd seat and can SF take the 2nd FF one. FG's elimination in this constituency is beyond doubt.
Don't rule out McKenna.
Political Compass, July 2007:
Economic Left/Right: 4.88
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -7.03
My slow drift to the right continues....
That's far from being the only question. With Labour in decline in the polls and the Greens on the rise, there are several other though less likely scenarios.Originally Posted by FutureTaoiseach
My dogma was run over by my karma. Economic Left/Right: 2.00
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -1.03
Unless Ahern has a sudden conversion to the notion of vote management in his own constituency, FF will lose a seat. SF will throw the kitchen sink as this, as a key target seat - you won't be able to move in there next May for Northern accents. Labour and Gregory will probably hold, but it should be remembered that four anti-government candidates were within 1,900 votes of each other in 2002, and any minor rebalancing of those votes could critically change the order of eliminations. FG are unlikely to gain, and DC is a long way down their target list - but a bright and shiny young candidate, and a strong national campaign from FG, could see them spring a major surprise - don't forget the demographic of the NIC is changing all the time, to one more favourable for FG than before (if they actually register and vote, that is). The recent constituency poll can be taken ith a major pinch of salt, coming as it did in the middle of the "Bertie bounce" - there's simply no way FF will take 50% of the vote, and probably not even 40%.
My prediction would be Ahern, McDonald, Costello and Gregory - but Gregory or possibly Costello might struggle - depends what type of left-wing votes McDonald picks up, and where the lost FF ones go.
"Elite - a small superior group; esp one that has a power out of proportion to its size." (Oxford English Dictionary)
The majority cannot therefore be the elite.
The "Bertie bounce" may not be a passing-phase. The recent controversy arguably made the polls more reflective of people's actual choice of govt as there was a real prospect it could have collapsed. If Enda can get 50% in Mayo then I see no reason why Bertie can't get it in Dub C.
Unless Ahern has a sudden conversion to the notion of vote management in his own constituency, FF will lose a seat. SF will throw the kitchen sink as this, as a key target seat - you won't be able to move in there next May for Northern accents. Labour and Gregory will probably hold, but it should be remembered that four anti-government candidates were within 1,900 votes of each other in 2002, and any minor rebalancing of those votes could critically change the order of eliminations. FG are unlikely to gain, and DC is a long way down their target list - but a bright and shiny young candidate, and a strong national campaign from FG, could see them spring a major surprise - don't forget the demographic of the NIC is changing all the time, to one more favourable for FG than before (if they actually register and vote, that is). The recent constituency poll can be taken ith a major pinch of salt, coming as it did in the middle of the "Bertie bounce" - there's simply no way FF will take 50% of the vote, and probably not even 40%.
The poll indicated McKenna a more likely prospect than McDonald but we'll see. SF should have stuck with their old candidate and his strong personal vote. They have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.My prediction would be Ahern, McDonald, Costello and Gregory - but Gregory or possibly Costello might struggle - depends what type of left-wing votes McDonald picks up, and where the lost FF ones go.
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that constituencies programme was crap last week. are we going to have to put up with a thread a week for the entire series??
Ahern did an excellent piece of vote management in 1997 and carved up the constituency in a way that if repeated could again yield two seats.
Unless Ahern has a sudden conversion to the notion of vote management in his own constituency, FF will lose a seat.
IF SF know what's good for them, then these Nordies would be best not opening their mouths. People from NI with SF regealia still get a major chill factor in many areas of Dublin, and I can't see the matrons of Phibsboro, Drumcondraor North Wall being impressed by such an invasion.SF will throw the kitchen sink as this, as a key target seat - you won't be able to move in there next May for Northern accents.
One could argue that the demographic change is even more likely to help FF, who are after all the party who helped give these people (like myself) the ability to afford their inner city pads. I cannot understand why the PDs haven't recognised these changes.Labour and Gregory will probably hold, but it should be remembered that four anti-government candidates were within 1,900 votes of each other in 2002, and any minor rebalancing of those votes could critically change the order of eliminations. FG are unlikely to gain, and DC is a long way down their target list - but a bright and shiny young candidate, and a strong national campaign from FG, could see them spring a major surprise - don't forget the demographic of the NIC is changing all the time, to one more favourable for FG than before (if they actually register and vote, that is).
The recent polls were conducted when people had to make a decision on who they wanted as Taoiseach when (for the first time in almost a decade) there was a chance that Bertie could go. The people have spoken, and the more it comes down to a choice of Ahern vs Kenny, the more it is obvious that there will be only one winner.The recent constituency poll can be taken ith a major pinch of salt, coming as it did in the middle of the "Bertie bounce" - there's simply no way FF will take 50% of the vote, and probably not even 40%.
There's a large element of a personal vote in both Costello and Gregory's vote, likewise with Kehoe. Kehoe's personal votes are now up for grabs, and don't be surprised if some fall to FF. As far as I'm concerned it's still all to play for, and I just don't see 3 out of 4 seats going to the left, with the new demograhics, especially when it's never happened here before.My prediction would be Ahern, McDonald, Costello and Gregory - but Gregory or possibly Costello might struggle - depends what type of left-wing votes McDonald picks up, and where the lost FF ones go.
My dogma was run over by my karma. Economic Left/Right: 2.00
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -1.03
The "Nordie invasion" is a regular feature of SF campaigns in the south and has been for years (and by the same token, we go up north to help out in Six County elections). I think the results of the last Dáil, European and local elections in Dublin speak for themselves as to how our campaigns have been affected by this practice.
And FT, we all would have preferred to have stuck with our "old candidate", but it wasn't up to us.
keith you have a very, ver warped view of what vote management is
this "excellent piece of vote management in 1997" that you talk about resulted in 34% for Bertie and 9% for marian mcgennis. she held on only because joe costello collapsed.
the 2002 vote management excercise was almost EXACTLY the same. 32% for Bertie, 8% for dermot fitzpatrick - and they held the seat by 60 votes.
so keith, if the 1997 and 2002 "excellent pieces of vote management" are repeated, fianna fail will deflinitely lose the second seat
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