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I can't seem to find a previous thread on this subject, so I've decided to look at one of the most interesting constituencies in the country (and not just because I live there!!).
In 2002, FF held two seats with 39.6% of the vote (down 3.2%). Fine Gael lost their only seat on 11.1% (down 3.4%), Labour gained one seat on 12.2% (up 3.7%) and independent Tony Gregory held his seat on 16.6% (down 2.5%).
Others in the field were the Green Party on 4.3% (up 0.8%), Sinn Fein 14.6% (up 7.9%) , CSP 1.1% and Others on 0.5%.
Outgoing FF TD Dermot Fitzpatrick is standing down and at the moment the ballot paper will look something like this, with 4 to be elected:
Bertie Ahern (FF)
Cyprian Brady (FF)
Joe Costello (Lab)
Paschal Donohoe (FG)
Mary Fitzpatrick (FF)
Tony Gregory (Ind)
Mary Lou McDonald (SF)
Patricia McKenna (Green)
As I see it:
This was the cloest SF got to a seat in 2002 without actally making it, when Nicky Kehoe came within 100 votes of Fitzpatrick on the last count. Given the current polls and the parachuting of high profile MEP McDonald into the constituency this should be a very straightforward SF gain from FF but is it?
FF have decided to run three candidates and will apparently divide up the constituency. Fitzpatrick, elected to Dublin Corporation in 2004 and daughter of the outgoing TD will concentrate on the west of the constituency. Taoiseach Bertie Ahern will concentrate of his heartland of Drumcondra and Glasnevin, leaving Brady (a Taoiseach's appointment as Senator) with the rest, although he too has a base in Drumcondra.
The last time FF ran three candidates was 1992, when despite picking up 2 quotas (1.6 of them for Ahern), they only picked up one seat. Obviously internal transfers are key for FF if they are to hold off the SF challenge. There are strong suggestions that Ahern is likely to transfer far more heavily to Brady than Fitzgerald but how much of Ahern's vote (which decreased in 2002) is personal and is likely to leak to others?
In previous elections, the late Jim Mitchell's personal vote was enough to give FG a seat, but the 2002 the national anti-FG tide combined with a re-drawing of the constituency to wipe Mitchell out. Newcomer Donohoe won a corporation seat in 2004 but apparently polls in the constituency give him little or no chance of re-taking the seat despite a lot of early and heavy canvassing.
Labour's Joe Costello re-grained his Dail seat in 2002 and the local election result in 2004 (where is wife took a seat) suggest he should be safe on this occasion. However the are strong rumours, that SF candidate McDonald may impact his vote in some of the inner-city local authority estates where he has previously thrived.
Independent Gregory no longer enjoys the high national profile he once had, but his backbone of supporters mainly around the North Strand area appear to be solid enough. Again however the impact of McDonald may come into play. If Ahern's votes stay within the FF camp and if the Greens do as well as polls suggest Gregory could be in trouble.
SF's McDonald is a newcomer to the constituency, the southsider has been somewhat of a carpetbeagger moving from Dublin West, to the Dublin Euro constituency and now into Dublin Central when she replaces Kehoe who has given up any interest in a Dail seat , to spend more time with his family. McDonald is unlikely to gain all of Kehoe's Cabra vote, much of which was personal but her high profile will undoubtedly bring gains in other parts of the constituency. McDonald has not been very visable in the constituency so far, which many are putting down to her recent pregnancy. However were SF to fail to gain a seat in Dublin Central, it would be a major set-back.
An interesting addition to the poll is former MEP McKenna who lost her European seat to McDonald in 2004. Since then she has all but disappeared from the national media. Despite living in the constituency for many years, McKenna does not have the base which a council seat provides. However with the Greens doing well in the polls and McKenna's formly high profile, she cannot be completly ruled out of contention, especially as the Green are likely to pick up a lot of transfers.
Local issues likely to play a part are the re-location of the DIT to the Grangegorman site, traffic congestion and the routing of the metro, the location of the national children's hospital to the Mater site. National issues potentially playing a part are likely to be house prices and the lack of affordable housing in the area, the influx of emigrants, and drugs and related crime.
At the moment it's Ahern and potentially any three from seven. Conventional logic suggests an SF gain from FF, but are there really three left of centre seats in this increasingly affluent constituencies?
After Ahern is elected and his surplus is distributed FG may be the first of the major candidates to go, giving Costello an edge. FF will also lose their third candidate (probably Fitzpatrick) early in the race. If Ahern's surplus and Fitzergerald's transfer don't put Brady into one of the three remaining places he is out of contention as there are few other votes coming his way.
Where will McKenna, McDonald, Costello and Gregory be at that point? If McKenna goes Costello and Gregory are likely to gain more than McDonald.
The could well be a hot milk and slippers result on the Saturday night with another recount, just like 2002 on the cards.
