Lucan Electoral Area in 2009?

[True Blue]

Who is going to get the extra seat?

Much as I detest the man, Derek Keating is going to be a huge political asset to Fine Gael and will pull in a second seat for William Lavelle. There have been instructions to work co-operatively and I have no doubt from the party's end this will be followed through. William would have taken a seat anyway, but Keating makes it a certainty. Fine Gael are on their way back in SDCC.

The way I see it this time:

FG 2 seats
Labour 1 seat
Ind (O' Connell) 1 seat
FF or Green 1 seat

[SEANSOUTH]

Who is going to get the extra seat?

Much as I detest the man, Derek Keating is going to be a huge political asset to Fine Gael and will pull in a second seat for William Lavelle. There have been instructions to work co-operatively and I have no doubt from the party's end this will be followed through. William would have taken a seat anyway, but Keating makes it a certainty. Fine Gael are on their way back in SDCC.

The way I see it this time:

FG 2 seats
Labour 1 seat
Ind (O' Connell) 1 seat
FF or Green 1 seat

1 FF.
1 FG.
1 Lab.
1 Green.
Last seat between O'Connell & FG with my money on O'Connell.

[mccafferty cat]

Looking at this area post-boundary review, the "new" ward had approx 2 quotas between Fine Gael and Derek Keating.

Taking into account the slippage that will surely occur from Keating since leaving Independent ranks, balanced somewhat by the fact that the 2nd FG candidate seems to be a hell of a lot better than the people they had the last time, then surely FG will be aiming to keep around 1.7 quotas

That's 2-seat territory

[NewDub]

My 2 cent is

FG 2 seats
Labour 1
FF 1
O'Connell or green 1 seat

In order I would say FG, lab, FF, FG, then prob O'connell. The greens in Lucan all very messy.

[fatcat]

Dont know the area that well but didn't Sinn Féin's Joanne Spain take a considerable vote (more than a quota for Council) at the last General Election. Will she not be in the mix?

[lyingeyes98]

The shinners will be in for a seat but they are leaving it a bit late to start getting a candidate known. Everyone is chasing the new seat and it will likely be a FG and LAB safe with the rest fighting for the last three. It will be a bloody fight and probably only a handful of votes separating the 5th seat from the losers.

Should be an interesting and expensive election.

[fatcat]

Does anyone know if Joanne Spain will be standing? Does anyone have a breakdown of the tallies for Lucan from the last general election?

[Evestown]

I'm sure that SF will have someone on the ticket but they have been very quiet of late.

[Rainman]

My 2 cent is

FG 2 seats
Labour 1
FF 1
O'Connell or green 1 seat

In order I would say FG, lab, FF, FG, then prob O'connell. The greens in Lucan all very messy.

FG with 2 seats? could happen if Keating works with Lavelle
Labour I hear are running 2 candidates should hold the one they have
FF should take the extra seat or it could be O Connels seat
The greens should keep the seat held by Billy Gogarty if they get their act together soon
Dont know enough about SF but Spain got a good vote in the general election, and then there are the PD's???

[Piaras]

Reckon there is definitely 1 seat for FG and the labour seat is fairly safe. After this questions start to arise as to who will take the other 3 seats. I think FF will have enough to get one but will depend on the candidates that are selected, there is a lot of confusion surrounding the greens and who they are going to run they have lost two good councillors during the life of the last council so it will be hard for them to bring someone else in, in my opinion. In terms of independents Gus O'Connells chance really depend on whether there is a FF candidate based in Palmerstown if there is I don't think he will take a seat if there isn't he has a good chance. My thoughts on the breakdown prior to selection of some candidates are.

1 FG
1 LAb
1 FF

With FG, FF, Greens and Gus O'Connell fighting for the last seat. (FF to have chance if the constituency is divided properly i.e. they take the Palmerstown seat).