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William Lavelle is doing well. I see in the Lucan Newsletter he has organised a clean-up among nine housing estates which were once Keating strongholds. Looking better and better for two seats.
What has happened to Frances Fitzgerald. She seems to have gone off the radar. I know her aim is to assist William in getting the second FG seat, but anything that lets Mr Keating get a head start in the general election run-in is a bad idea.
I am still predicting two seats for Fine Gael. The Labour Party's Tuffy will also be safe. The independent O' Connell should be returned with an increased vote as he is now the only independent.
I am intruiged as to who Fianna Fáil are going to run. Various names have come up in the community, ranging from Des Kelly again to Luke Moriarty again to even Moriarty's daughter. Then there is Ed O' Brien who ran last time and Deirdre Doherty Ryan a former Councillor. If they get their act together they could unseat the Green Councillor Dorothy Corrigan, who has yet to make any impact.
My prediction for now: FG 2, Lab 1, Ind 1, FF 1 . A real turnaround and time for the big parties who have real influence to get their act together.
Hi Trueblue. I still think that your heady prediction of two seats for Fine Gael is a touch too optimistic at this stage. I would say that it remains an outside bet at this statge rather than a racing or likely cert.Originally Posted by True Blue
Here are my odds-on favourites:
Tuffy to retain seat
Keating to retain seat (IND to Fine Gael)
One Fianna Fáiler to be elected
Possible outcomes
O'Connell to retain seat (but to lose if Moriarty runs for FF)
Corrigan in real trouble for the Greens but still a possibility
Lavelle (FG) no more than a possibility at this stage
Second FF seat from Lucan part of the ward if they run an intelligent strategy
Candidates who are toast before they're even nominated:
Sinn Féin - due to loss of Quarryvale to Clondalkin and general absence on the ground
PD's - enough said, if they're still around.
So for the five seats my (admittedly very early) prediction would be:
One Labour
One Fine Gael (poss. two at Green's expense)
One Fianna Fáíl (poss. two at Independent's expense)
One Independent (O'Connell)
One Green
Dear Setanta,
I think you are underestimating the Green vote. Dorothy Corrigan is an honourable and hard-working replacement for two honourable and hard-working predecessors. There is a latent Green vote there and come election time people will remember the work done in the past and give Dorothy a chance to make an impact on her own terms.
I heard that half of the Green membership has drifted away due to inactivity and that they haven't had a meeting in months. But they do have a sitting councillor and that can't be ignored.
So if the PD's do collapse I could see myself joining the Greens. All they need is a little tactical know-how.
Regards,
'Dot Cotton'
Hi Dot. Corrigan may well be all of those things you say she is but no-one in Lucan is aware of that.
I really feel for Paul Gogarty and his Green colleagues in Lucan. What has happened to him personally and to his Green colleagues these past two years is nothing short of calamitous and a terrible tragedy, not just for him but for Lucan as well. I knew Fintan and Billy politically and both were in the premier league of public servants, as well as being decent and caring men. Their loss is profound and spreads further than their immediate political circle.
As for the elections, however, the Green machine is on the ropes in Lucan. Corrigan has no profile in the community. She doesn't even live in Lucan but over the border in Clondalkin. Although there is unquestionably some residual support and sympathy for the Greens in Lucan, the last General Election demonstrated how soft that support is. Unless it is regularly tended it dissipates. "Tactical know-how" is of no value if it is not being applied. That, I'm afraid, is what is happening now. I would like to see Corrigan returned next June, but at this stage it is looking unlikely that she will be. I hope I'm wrong.
Corrigan lives in Newcastle and I would have thought that she would run in the new six seater Clondalkin Ward.Hi Dot. Corrigan may well be all of those things you say she is but no-one in Lucan is aware of that.
I really feel for Paul Gogarty and his Green colleagues in Lucan. What has happened to him personally and to his Green colleagues these past two years is nothing short of calamitous and a terrible tragedy, not just for him but for Lucan as well. I knew Fintan and Billy politically and both were in the premier league of public servants, as well as being decent and caring men. Their loss is profound and spreads further than their immediate political circle.
As for the elections, however, the Green machine is on the ropes in Lucan. Corrigan has no profile in the community. She doesn't even live in Lucan but over the border in Clondalkin. Although there is unquestionably some residual support and sympathy for the Greens in Lucan, the last General Election demonstrated how soft that support is. Unless it is regularly tended it dissipates. "Tactical know-how" is of no value if it is not being applied. That, I'm afraid, is what is happening now. I would like to see Corrigan returned next June, but at this stage it is looking unlikely that she will be. I hope I'm wrong.
I must admit that I had heard that the Greens in Lucan have not actually decided whether they will run Corrigan in Lucan yet, and that her selection as replacement councillor had a lot to do with friction within Lucan Greens and the attemnpt to exclude the redoubtable "Doctor" from being nominated and upsetting the Gogarty apple-cart.
That being said, the Green vote in Clondalkin is derisory, so if you were a Green with ambitions to sit on SDCC you'd really have to concentrate on Lucan.
[Well I know she is hard working from my dealings with her on a community forum. She is a cool customer when dealing with detractors but has a warmth about her. I have no doubt but that when constituents come into contact with her they will warm to her.
You do raise a wider problem regarding the Greens. They have undoubtedly worked hard, from Cllr Billy Gogarty to young Fintan McCarthy who was recognised for being a dynamic and fair-minded representative. But their TD didn't get there on his own. He did it with a little help from his friends. Some of my friends would say that he is not the full shilling and while that might be a bit unfair, he certainly is not the 'brains' of the Green Party in Dublin Mid West.
Now, without McCarthy in particular, Paul Gogarty has been invisible. You never see him anywhere locally and even at Green events covered in the media he tends to be absent. It strikes me that he isn't at the races politically and is being shown up for what he is, essentially a buffoon, the 'George Bush' of the Green Party.
Dorothy Corrigan is a quality representative. There has been a Green seat in Lucan now for many years and she is primed to take it, once people get to know her.
Who is the 'Doctor'? Was Lombard approached? I heard he is one of us (PD). If that is the case and there is friction in the Greens it is only to be expected after two fine representatives have died and a new quality representative is expected to rise from the ashes.I must admit that I had heard that the Greens in Lucan have not actually decided whether they will run Corrigan in Lucan yet, and that her selection as replacement councillor had a lot to do with friction within Lucan Greens and the attemnpt to exclude the redoubtable "Doctor" from being nominated and upsetting the Gogarty apple-cart.
That being said, the Green vote in Clondalkin is derisory, so if you were a Green with ambitions to sit on SDCC you'd really have to concentrate on Lucan.
One thinks one may have the wrong Doctor. There is another GP who lives in a different part of Lucan who is a long-standing member of the PDs, at least up our end.Who is the 'Doctor'? Was Lombard approached? I heard he is one of us (PD). If that is the case and there is friction in the Greens it is only to be expected after two fine representatives have died and a new quality representative is expected to rise from the ashes.I must admit that I had heard that the Greens in Lucan have not actually decided whether they will run Corrigan in Lucan yet, and that her selection as replacement councillor had a lot to do with friction within Lucan Greens and the attemnpt to exclude the redoubtable "Doctor" from being nominated and upsetting the Gogarty apple-cart.
That being said, the Green vote in Clondalkin is derisory, so if you were a Green with ambitions to sit on SDCC you'd really have to concentrate on Lucan.
The 'Doctor' Mr Setanta refers to appears to be Kevin Farrell, a bright young member of Lucan Planning Council whom William would know reasonably well.
We understand that he could well have been a member of Fine Gael if he had stayed supporting Mr Keating and he would no doubt had been an asset with his planning expertise. He might even eventually have seen sense and given William Lavelle his time and energy.
Instead he has thrown in his lot with the Greens and to me that seems like such a waste of talent.
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