So, a new Ward. Six seats, with the following (seven) sitting Councillors:

Dermot Lacey (LAB)
Mary Freehill (LAB)
Oisín Quinn (LAB)
Edie Wynne (FG)
Paddy McCartan (FG)
John Kenny (PD)
Michael Donnelly (FF)


Presumed/possible other candidates:
Ryan Meade (GRN)
Gareth Tubridy (FF)
Jim O'Callaghan (FF)
A Shinner

Got to be predicting a loss for Labour here. Hardly space for three of them.

Very first shot at a prediction (with little or no thought):
2 x LAB
1 x FF
1 x FG
1 x Green
1 x either FF or FG, depending on the candidates and the national swing

The new DSE configuration is a major surprise. Its an obvious gerrymander to favour the Greens and PDs. The PD would lose their Pembroke seat without merging into rathmines, and the Greens could forget about a seat in either unless merged.

Id predict:

McCartan
Lacey
Quinn
Donnelly
Wynne

And then either 2nd Ffer or a Green

I agree with 'mcafferty cat'. It's hard to see how a green or PD wil not get elected in this ward though. If the PDs don't get elected here, they're finished. I think Gormley has split Sandymount to mitigate the damage that could be done to the party there (incinerator). The question for FF is whether to run 2 or 3 candidates? Running just Donnelly and O'Callaghan leaves Pembroke exposed unless you put in Tubridy. The other option is to run two candidates ; one for Rathmines (Donnely) and one for Pembroke (Tubridy). Jim O'C could go back into SEIC, where he went for the co-option last time. Running only 2 candidates in a 6-seater would be unusual if this was a rural constituency- but in this ward it makes sense to secure the 2 seats.

Originally Posted by bobby68

I think Gormley has split Sandymount to mitigate the damage that could be done to the party there (incinerator).

Are you alleging that Gormley interfered with the independent committees? That's pretty serious.

No. That part of my posting was badly worded...I am sure he is delighted with the work of the committee though. It's worked out very well for the Greens (by coincidence, of course). Who appointed the members to the committee?

While I am sorry to lose part of Sandymount, in general I am pleased enough. I hold virtually all the existing ward. I gain back parts of Ranelagh that I used to serve between 1993-1999 and have always retained an interest in those parts of Donnybrook that were in the Rathmines ward. So all in all I am happy enough apart from a natural regret to lose areas I have a long association with. However If I am back I will of course be happy to use any such knowledge for the benefit of the entire area.

Incidentally I think that paddy Mc cartan should and will contest in the SEIC ward. That is probably the best way to ensure his and Edi's re-election.
The PD's with all respect - after Lisbon - are probably finished.

Three out of six will be as easy or hard as two out of four and we did that last time.

Cllr said "The PD's with all respect - after Lisbon - are probably finished."

I am curious why Lisbon would have a negative effect on PDS and not the other mainstream parties who got the public mood so wrong?

Originally Posted by thebigv

Cllr said "The PD's with all respect - after Lisbon - are probably finished."

I am curious why Lisbon would have a negative effect on PDS and not the other mainstream parties who got the public mood so wrong?

It's not a case of not being in touch with the public mood etc etc. Though it is worth noting that in the new Pembroke Rathmines ward the YEs vote was approximately 75%. It was the total absence from the debate that will finsish them off. ( I don't say that with any great relish as the PD's did at least bring an policy approach to Irish politics even - if I did not share their policies). Ciaran Cannon just did not feature and the PD's were simply counted out.

I agree with Cllr - Coir got more airtime and were involved in more debates than the PDs.....