Pembroke-Rathmines Local Election 2009

[revery]

Cllr said; "In Pembroke-Rathmines I would say that Michael Donnelly should be ok, as will two Lab seats. Paddy gets a seat and then the final two between Lab for third and FG or FF for a second or the Greens for one. As of yet cannot be more specific"

Thats how i would see it but the only difference being that it will be Donnelly fighting it out for second ff seat and Jim getting first ff seat

It is all a bit predictable really.

[Decko]

Three out of six will be as easy or hard as two out of four and we did that last time.

its actually a little harder cllr

2 quotas out of 4 - is 40%

3 quotas out of 6 is 42.86 %

so all things been equal you would need to increase your share of vote by c. 3%.

wishing you well and i've no doubt your openess (unlike others) to post here will stand you in good stead.

[cllr]

Thanks Decko for your good wishes - I will need them. I had an interesting discussion with another DSE party candidate last night and his analysis is heavily geographically based as to who he thinks will win. It is interesting and I am going to throw a few figures around in my head before posting on this. Of more immediate interest however was the body language and voting pattern of John Kenny the PD Councillor at last nights meeting of the City Council - yes he turned up for a change- Could we be seeing the emergence of the third FG candidate???

[Decko]

those PD's who were elected (rather than co-opted ) and have a team and track record-- would add to a party ticket...on the other hand other fly by nights would likely be a negative distraction

[cllr]

While a track record in getting votes is a positive thing for a possible recruiting Party it could also be argued that having a third Councillor contesting might also be seen as an advantage.

Nevertheless that is FG and John Kennys business. My business is maximising the Labour seats - including protecting the Labour seat I hold at present.

[bobby68]

I had an interesting discussion with another DSE party candidate last night and his analysis is heavily geographically based as to who he thinks will win. It is interesting and I am going to throw a few figures around in my head before posting on this.

So, you were talking to Paddy Mc at the council meeting... what did he have to say or are you still throwing the figures?

[red365]

... overall ,the Lisbon debate will haunt the Labour party in the Euro and Local Elections...

A candidate's attitude to EU reform. Yeah. That's exactly what determines how somebody votes in local elections

Re Pembroke, three seats is a big ask for Labour.

[cllr]

I had an interesting discussion with another DSE party candidate last night and his analysis is heavily geographically based as to who he thinks will win. It is interesting and I am going to throw a few figures around in my head before posting on this.

So, you were talking to Paddy Mc at the council meeting... what did he have to say or are you still throwing the figures?

Actually it wasn't Paddy. Basically the person was saying that there would be two (old) Pembroke candidates elected, two (old) Rathmines people elected and that the last two could go anywhere. It was the geographic nature of the prediction that surprised me!

[Rebelman]

So, a new Ward. Six seats, with the following (seven) sitting Councillors:

Dermot Lacey (LAB)
Mary Freehill (LAB)
Oisín Quinn (LAB)
Edie Wynne (FG)
Paddy McCartan (FG)
John Kenny (PD)
Michael Donnelly (FF)


Presumed/possible other candidates:
Ryan Meade (GRN)
Gareth Tubridy (FF)
Jim O'Callaghan (FF)
A Shinner

I would suspect there will be at least one other candidate seeking to get on the FF ticket, that hasn't been mentioned yet on this thread

[cllr]

So, a new Ward. Six seats, with the following (seven) sitting Councillors:

Dermot Lacey (LAB)
Mary Freehill (LAB)
Oisín Quinn (LAB)
Edie Wynne (FG)
Paddy McCartan (FG)
John Kenny (PD)
Michael Donnelly (FF)


Presumed/possible other candidates:
Ryan Meade (GRN)
Gareth Tubridy (FF)
Jim O'Callaghan (FF)
A Shinner

I would suspect there will be at least one other candidate seeking to get on the FF ticket, that hasn't been mentioned yet on this thread

I have heard of two other possibilities - though a Donelly, O'Callaghan, Tubridy ticket could probably pull off the two seats if they handle their campaign properly.