Pembroke-Rathmines Local Election 2009

[mccafferty cat]

I think that post is quite distasteful and perhaps should be withdrawn.

What?! Ah get over yourself for God's sake

[cllr]

What?! Ah get over yourself for God's sake

I hope I am not that prudish but putting someones name and RIP after it is a bit distasteful.

[macca30]

Being very blunt here, your party are running Jim O'Callaghan, a barrister who defended the Drumcondra mafia in the tribunals. I wonder what is Jim's take on Bertie and his horses, or what is his opinion on the convoluted dealings surrounding St. Lukes. (I do not doubt that Jim is personally above board) If in the event of Jim or any other FF'er being elected might it not be appropriate for the other members to walk out of the chamber in protest if he or other Fianna fail members mentions the need for ethics in politics, using the UN delegates in response to Ahmadinejad as a precedent.

Eorna just to clarify O Callaghan never defended Ahern in the tribunal.

[cllr]

Eorna just to clarify O Callaghan never defended Ahern in the tribunal.

Presumably like the others he just defended him politically.

[revery1]

Given FF are down to 23% in polls what do you think the implications are in the Pembroke Rathmines ward for FF?

[Papinian]

Given FF are down to 23% in polls what do you think the implications are in the Pembroke Rathmines ward for FF?

I think of all the wards in the country, Pembroke Rathmines is one of those where the demise of FF will impact their candidates least.

First, Pembroke Rathmines has 6 seats and only one sitting FF councillor (Michael Donnelly). Therefore, if FF keep one seat out of the six then they are doing no worse than they did in 2004 and a FF first preference vote of 16-18% with a reasonably solid transfer between FF candidates would achieve that.

Secondly, everyone seems to forget that FF performed poorly at the local elections in 2004 with a vote of only about 33% nationally. FF is now at 23% in the latest poll but allow for the poll's margin of error, the fact that FF is better at turning out its core vote and that some of those who say that they will vote for other parties will vote for the "local" FF candidate and a FF performance in the local elections of 29-30% is well within the bounds of possibility.

Thirdly, and more importantly, I believe that the fall in FF support is strongest among public sector workers and their share of the Pembroke Rathmines electorate is a good bit less than it is nationally.

[cllr]

I think of all the wards in the country, Pembroke Rathmines is one of those where the demise of FF will impact their candidates least.

First, Pembroke Rathmines has 6 seats and only one sitting FF councillor (Michael Donnelly). Therefore, if FF keep one seat out of the six then they are doing no worse than they did in 2004 and a FF first preference vote of 16-18% with a reasonably solid transfer between FF candidates would achieve that.

Secondly, everyone seems to forget that FF performed poorly at the local elections in 2004 with a vote of only about 33% nationally. FF is now at 23% in the latest poll but allow for the poll's margin of error, the fact that FF is better at turning out its core vote and that some of those who say that they will vote for other parties will vote for the "local" FF candidate and a FF performance in the local elections of 29-30% is well within the bounds of possibility.

Thirdly, and more importantly, I believe that the fall in FF support is strongest among public sector workers and their share of the Pembroke Rathmines electorate is a good bit less than it is nationally.

Absolutely,

Incidentally met a FGer earlier today who told that their Poll is showing my colleague Mary Freehill doing particularly well. If so it is a credit to her many years of hardwork and achievement. Hope I can still join her and Oisin on the next Council

[bobby68]

Absolutely,

Incidentally met a FGer earlier today who told that their Poll is showing my colleague Mary Freehill doing particularly well. If so it is a credit to her many years of hardwork and achievement. Hope I can still join her and Oisin on the next Council

I wonder what else their poll says?

FG seem to be spending a fortune in this area- bus shelters, bike adverts, polling etc.

Also- the combined FF Vote was about 20% in these two wards in 2004 (against a national FF vote of 33%). That's 13 percentage points below the national level. If the same happens this time, they will be on 10% across 3 candidates. No amount of transfers will save them on that turn-out.

[cllr]

I wonder what else their poll says?

FG seem to be spending a fortune in this area- bus shelters, bike adverts, polling etc.

Also- the combined FF Vote was about 20% in these two wards in 2004 (against a national FF vote of 33%). That's 13 percentage points below the national level. If the same happens this time, they will be on 10% across 3 candidates. No amount of transfers will save them on that turn-out.

Yes indeed they are spending a fortune - hard to see it coming under the E15,000 limit but anyway!

Other aspect of poll apparently was that Eoghan an Edi are in hunt for seat but not both and that the PBP candidate is doing better than the SF one.

[Herodotus]

Yes indeed they are spending a fortune - hard to see it coming under the E15,000 limit but anyway!

Other aspect of poll apparently was that Eoghan an Edi are in hunt for seat but not both and that the PBP candidate is doing better than the SF one.

As I said earlier in the thread I know the PBP candidate, his campaign is bankrupt in terms of finances but he is working hard on the ground, trying to meet as many people as possible. People respect that. With the type of warchest FG has he would probably get in.