Pembroke-Rathmines Local Election 2009

[jackryan]

Fair play 2 J O'C not many here gave him a chance including meself and to Edie 2! What will be interesting 2 watch is Lucinda Vrs Eoghan, Labour post R. Quinn although mite be 2 Lab seats here, Gormely in deep deep trouble even McDowell got a councillor elected and a fair showing by Williams! And FF Andrews Vrs O'Callaghan with Ryan hanging around!

[Paddylekker]

FG should have taken the three seats - but the vote management strategy left a lot to be desired. Labour handled that very impressively indeed, and we need to learn from this. I'm of the opinion that if 250-300 of Eoghan's first preferences had gone to Paddy the result could have been very different, and Eoghan would still have headed the poll. Fair play to the lad, it was the most professional campaign I've ever seen in 20 years of involvement in DSE, and it has raised the bar for everyone. (Did anyone see all the "Thank You" stickers on his posters in Ranelagh? a nice touch I thought)

The Thank You stickers are on posters all over the Ward.

But it's impossible to manage the vote of a first time candidate who doesn't know where the geographical base of his vote is.

I don't know how FG were supposed to migrate 250-300 of Murphy's first preferences to McCartan. They attract completely different types of voters.

The problem with FG's vote management is probably that they tried to manage it at all. Instead of imposing areas on candidates they should have let all three of them off the leash.

That way they would have maximised their vote for the General Election, Murphy would have come home with a much bigger surplus and possibly brought McCartan and Wynne over the line in his wake.

[Astarmain]

Even if FG had managed votes perfectly they wouldn't have won 3. There was about 10%
of Green, PBP, SF to break to the left and FF, as shown, had a quota between them.

[Paddylekker]

Even if FG had managed votes perfectly they wouldn't have won 3. There was about 10%
of Green, PBP, SF to break to the left and FF, as shown, had a quota between them.

I love the fact that you joined in February 2003 and this is your second post.

So long silent friend. We shall see you again in 2015.

[Paddylekker]

Anyway, on the basis of the local elections, Labour are on 34.1 per cent in the constituency, Fine Gael are on 26.8 per cent, Fianna Fail are on 17.1 per cent and the Greens are on six per cent.

There's almost a quota there for Fianna Fail but they're going to be transfer toxic and could struggle to get over the line.

Fine Gael will have to up their game to be in with a shout of two though. Labour have 1.75 quotas and, on the basis of the local elections at least, have to be in pole position for two seats and the taking out of Gormley.

[Silvio Dante]

I live in Sandymount Village and was sure I'd have the Pembroke/Rathmines list but turned out it was the South East inner City ballot paper... Should have done my homework I suppose...

[revery1]

I see fionan sheenan in sat indo agreed with me in saying that FF will not hold a seat in South east if they run Andrews and Jim. The problem we have is that even if jim gets a run he wont get a seat even if he does beat Andrews and i suspect he will do that but to what avail. We will need Andrews to drop out and I cant see that because he seems to be everywhere and still determined despite the negative news from the elections. If things improve then it would make sense to run Jim although things dont look like they are going to improve in the short term.Jim will stay around and keep his profile up because if the opportunity come up he will be the one to take it.

Interesting that Labour are looking to run two as well. That will be an interesting battle. What are odds on Parodi being the running mate to a Quinn!

[Paddylekker]

If Labour have any sense then it will be Kevin Humphreys as the running mate. He took almost two quotas in SEIC (more than double Parodi's vote).

You're not going to have a sitting TD like Andrews dropping out.

On the face of it, Labour are in the box seat in terms of a second in the constituency and they should take it at Gormley's expense. Presuming that Lucinda will come in then it will be down to Murphy to take out the FF seat.

If a General Election were held this year then FF could probably only count on 13-15 per cent first preferences and they'd be transfer toxic.

Fine Gael should be on about 30 per cent but with the two Labour candidates likely to come home there would not be many transfers floating around for their second candidate either.

I'd still have Murphy, just about, to take the second seat though and make it FG 2 Lab 2.

[cllr]

If Labour have any sense then it will be Kevin Humphreys as the running mate. He took almost two quotas in SEIC (more than double Parodi's vote).

You're not going to have a sitting TD like Andrews dropping out.

On the face of it, Labour are in the box seat in terms of a second in the constituency and they should take it at Gormley's expense. Presuming that Lucinda will come in then it will be down to Murphy to take out the FF seat.

If a General Election were held this year then FF could probably only count on 13-15 per cent first preferences and they'd be transfer toxic.

Fine Gael should be on about 30 per cent but with the two Labour candidates likely to come home there would not be many transfers floating around for their second candidate either.

I'd still have Murphy, just about, to take the second seat though and make it FG 2 Lab 2.

For what its worth i think Kevin and Ruairi would make a great ticket.

[revery1]

Cllr is that Ruairi who wont give up his ministerial pension even though the is a well paid TD "The Labour Party declined to comment on individual TDs but said party leader Eamon Gilmore, finance spokesperson and deputy leader Joan Burton and Wicklow TD Liz McManus had already given up their pensions"

This means Ruairi is not willing to do the right thing like the rest of his comrades!! he also availed of the artists tax exemption to reduce his tax bill. Hardly acts of a comrade!!