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About LinkBacksSeems Paddy McCartan ran in to a bit of an ambush with fellow Pembroke Cllr telling everyone that Paddy would top the poll and he was in need of the votes. Should have gone to specsavers.
Seems Paddy McCartan ran in to a bit of an ambush with fellow Pembroke Cllr telling everyone that Paddy would top the poll and he was in need of the votes. Should have gone to specsavers.
Last edited by CorkHurler; 8th June 2009 at 06:21 PM.
What is this nonsense about PR?Originally Posted by Pembroke/Rathmines
From what I saw, (I live in Ranelagh, but have good friends in Sandymount direction and so would be there regularly), all Murphy did was throw money at the area. And plenty of it.
He also needed to do this, after all he came from a standing start. Quinn did the same thing last time. Notably this time, while OQ was visible in the area, he did not have spend anything like he did the last time.
Murphy also seemed to have the FG family behind him, there were more posters up in gardens arond the area for Murphy than for McCartan or Wynne combined.
I also heard that there were far more Murphy stickers tallying than Wynne or McCartan ones, which would back up this.
I'd say Lucinda is a mite concerned.
If the election was held tomorrow they'd have a decent chance of getting two, but it won't be. And who knows where we'll be in one/two/three years time, however I imagine that FG DSE will push for two candidates nomatter what.
The only saving grace there is that R Quinn may not run which would expose the Labour seat. Equally, O'Callaghan may have to be given the nod along with Andrews which would split FF vote. And as someone mentioned earlier, on this showing Gormley would be in difficulties. Should be an interesting contest all round.
I'm of the view and always have been that three councillors in P/Rathmines was a bad idea for FF.
Opinions ? (please no anti-FF jibes too; cold analysis only please)
But I would still be in favour of two running at GE time.
Dreadful idea, but it was probably decided before things went south. The real question is whether Eoin Ryan will run again in DSE. Any ideas?
I'd say Eoin will be the EU Commissioner so that takes him off the pitch.
I thought i saw something on the rte election tracker yesterday that he was going to run in DSE. I can't find it now though!
Edit: sorry it wasn't the rte.ie election tracker. it was a twitter on the politics.ie homepage
RT @humphreys: Eoin Ryan will run in DSE after losing to Joe Higgins this morning #le09 about 11 hours ago
Last edited by myk; 8th June 2009 at 06:36 PM.
I'm not sure it was a bad idea. It depends on how much of the Fianna Fail vote you think Tubridy took. I'm of the opinion that he took hardly any traditional FF vote and brought home a good few hundred votes himself.
These votes transferred heavily enough to Jim O'Callaghan, who was then elected by Donnelly.
Fianna Fail were never going to win more than one seat and they eventually took the fourth seat. Fine Gael had a chance of three seats and they might have taken them if Tubridy had not been in the field.
Last edited by Paddylekker; 8th June 2009 at 07:58 PM.
I know several of the people who had posters up in their gardens in Ranelagh. They're mainly friends of Eoghan Murphy and other members of his family. Murphy had very few of the DSE FG family was behind him, although he had a couple of very good people, it was mainly his own team.
There were a lot of Murphy stickers at the tally but not a whole lot of them tallying. Those that did were mainly first time tallyers who were given very strict instructions on the morning of the tally.
The main difference wasn't 'money' it was that Murphy had a very big canvass team - he had 40 to 50 people out on several nights - to support his own high energy canvass.
That and he is, actually, an excellent candidate whom people instinctively liked. It's not that much of a mystery.
In an indirect way, Tubridy was one of the key determinants of the outcome. His transfers went heavily to Jim O'Callaghan, which then ensured that Michael Donnelly was pushed out despite being the FF frontrunner. Donnelly's transfers went more to Edie Wynne, and helped to bring her over the line.
I don't think that Tubridy took first preferences that might have gone to FG. Eoghan Murphy got the young and attractive candidate vote (is that story that the girls were stealing his posters apocryphal?) This may seem like a strange thing to say, but if Garrett Tubridy had been standing for FG instead of Eoghan he might have taken that seat. Tubridy had the FF label hanging over him like a giant black cloud, in a year when FF was as popular as bubonic plague, and he did not have nearly such a presence on the ground.
I think Tubridy will be back, and will get elected someday, but maybe not in Pembroke-Rathmines.
FG should have taken the three seats - but the vote management strategy left a lot to be desired. Labour handled that very impressively indeed, and we need to learn from this. I'm of the opinion that if 250-300 of Eoghan's first preferences had gone to Paddy the result could have been very different, and Eoghan would still have headed the poll. Fair play to the lad, it was the most professional campaign I've ever seen in 20 years of involvement in DSE, and it has raised the bar for everyone. (Did anyone see all the "Thank You" stickers on his posters in Ranelagh? a nice touch I thought)
I am very, very sorry to see Paddy gone. He is a good friend and he put an enormous amount of effort into his work on the Council and into his campaign. It was incredibly emotional on Saturday night. I did tell you a long time ago not to write off Edie Wynne and her success proved that the ancient 20th century method of knocking on doors, then calling round again, then coming back in case you were missed the first time does indeed pay dividends.
Interesting times ahead.
And Cllr, it was nice to meet you in real life at last!
reverie you said "But I would still be in favour of two running at GE time." I am a Jim supporter but even I would think it would be suicide to run to if the vote is anything like the 17.5% FF got. If this percentage was divided between two candidates then we would get no seat at all even if it was Jim. Of course I would like to see Jim running with Andrews because he would easily beat him this time however he wouldnt get the seat either and that wouldnt make a whole lot of sense either. For example if Jim got 10% and chris got 7.5% Jim would would only get 60% of Andrews transfers which would leave O Callaghan well short of a quota.
If the political atmosphere remains the same or gets worse for FF it wouldnt matter if Eoin Ryan and the Pope ran on a two person ticket under the FF banner we would loose.
I would imagine a two person strategy decesion will be left for quite a while yet and not make the same mistake as in Pembroke Rathmines where three were selected a distance out and then things got so bad that a three person strategy looked a mistake.
I would imagine that Tubridy will look for something closer nearer to his home base in Blackrock area as there is clearly no future in south East with Jim there for the long haul.
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