Dublin south Central local elections.

[cain1798]

What's your take on Ballyfermot at this point Cain?

(I ask because I think you're talking sense about the other two wards).

To be honest, and thanks for the compliment , I more or less agree with LO Dublin SC on Ballyfermot.

I think Conaghan and Jackson are safe, Minihan a little less so and if it remained a three seater would have something to worry about, but should be okay.

To me the fascinating bit is the last seat. You have to look at Bríd Smith and think if she can't do it now, she can never do it. But on the other hand she has two FG candidates and two FF candidates facing her and part of me wonders whether they are more likely to transfer to each other than to go Trot left with Brid.

To be honest I don't know Ballyer too well, especially with the boundary changes, and wouldn't like to call it but I'd certainly see Smith coming fourth on the first count. Whether she's caught or not is another thing.

[scrawledincrayon]

But on the other hand she has two FG candidates and two FF candidates facing her and part of me wonders whether they are more likely to transfer to each other than to go Trot left with Brid.

A key thing to remember with SWP members who are standing this time is that they are not standing as "Trot left". They are standing under a bland name as leftish community activists.

You may know who they really are, but the vast bulk of the electorate will not.

[cain1798]

A key thing to remember with SWP members who are standing this time is that they are not standing as "Trot left". They are standing under a bland name as leftish community activists.

You may know who they really are, but the vast bulk of the electorate will not.

True enough. There is, sadly, no such thing as an honest Trot.

[scrawledincrayon]

True enough. There is, sadly, no such thing as an honest Trot.

Quite the contrary, most Trotskyists could do with being less rigid about their honesty and about a few other things as well. One of the SWP's distinguishing features on the further shores of the left is precisely their unusual "adaptability".

In purely electoral terms, I think that's likely to pay off this time around. Boyd Barrett will either top the poll or be second in DL. Smith, Kenny and Lewis seem to me to be in with a shout too, although I haven't heard much reliable information recently from people without an obvious dog in the race in those wards.

[teachertime]

There is a national increase in Labour support and both candidates have ran great campaigns. Votes from people who voted FF/Green last time will help.

Correction, John Gallagher did top the poll last time: ElectionsIreland.org: 2004 Local - South West Inner City First Preference Votes

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I'd have to agree with Cain on that on...decent skin that he is, the Gallagher campaign has been terrible. Lets try and not have the party tag colour all sensible analysis.

[wi10090]

We ll see soon enough, I m hoping there ll be some count updates on here so would one of the hacks please go to the trouble of getting something posted

Ballyfermot Drimnagh
Conaghan seems to pushed himself a bit in Drimnagh, his Drimnagh leaflet was mildly interesting and he has been canvassing. Comiskey O Keefe has nil chance. I reckon O Neill at this stage will take the last seat which will be devastating for Smith. . . Conaghan, Minihan, Jackson, O Neill

Crumlin
I cant see two labour seats here, I d imagine Ardagh could poll 'okay' on firsts but be left struggling for transfers. Though he can go close. Wishful thinking on behalf of some that SF wont take a seat here, he s not as badly got as that. Upton will pick up more votes which will remove Byrne from top of the poll. Someone pointed it out correct that it could be McGinely. . . McGinely, Byrne, McHugh, Collins

SWIC
People like names they know. We could be interested in campaigns and that on here, but in reality people on the ground will be less interested and pick up less. I dont see Gallagher's vote collapsing that much. He will come in ahead of Moynihan. Whether its two labour seats here I dont know.

Suppose it ll tell all sat.

[teachertime]

SWIC locals this time round is certainly one of the most interesting and hotly contested campaigns I've ever worked on. Good luck to all.

[L.O. Dublin S.C.]

Sorry to break up the love between two posters but Labour is on a swing of support, in my opinion, greater then the Spring-tide. The Spring-tide got Labour candidates elected in the most un-Labour constituencies. So, I stand by my predictions.

[teachertime]

Sorry to break up the love between two posters but Labour is on a swing of support, in my opinion, greater then the Spring-tide. The Spring-tide got Labour candidates elected in the most un-Labour constituencies. So, I stand by my predictions.

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And look what happened to poor old Tricky Dicky. The mystery poster Codology said it best with ..opinions are like ass*oles everybody has one. At this stage our two cents means very little ...the people will decide tomorrow.

[jackryan]

It will be interested to see how John Gallagher does from a purely political science point of view! If he wins he proves a hard working candidate doesn't need posters! he has never run with a running mate before and one who has been very visible as have most other candidates, definitely a more competitive elction this time, Good to see! and on this anniversery of the killing of democracy on Tinnaman square use your vote never take it for granted!