Dublin south Central local elections.

[Peterdee]

Vote ABA...Anyone But Ardagh

[Bus man Bob]

Lots of last minute canvassing in Rialto,saw John Gallagher earlier all his canvassers were around the same vintage as himself he doesn't seem to be getting much help from the young and pretty brigade.

[L.O. Dublin S.C.]

further to herodotst post few days ago.Surely when a candidate is active in the community and well versed in whats happening he is worth voting for. After all this is local election and it suppossed to be about people getting things done at a local level and not operating on the negitive.There must be at least 5 or 6 candidates talking about national issuses which they have zero control over.

If a candidate is a member of a ruling party, then they deserve to get hammered for the actions of their TD counterparts.

[codology]

Nearly there now,how does every hack on this thread think the seats will fall.Fair play to all candidates for standing it takes guts.
p.s. Saw FF getting a very rough ride in Oliver Bond tonight,nobody said it would be easy.

[drim]

It was a very strange campaign.I have never seen so small amount of canvassers in any election for last 20 years.I have enjoyed reading all the ********************e that most of yous have posted.It just as well its only hacks on this site because some of the comments and predictions are nosence.

[L.O. Dublin S.C.]

Nearly there now,how does every hack on this thread think the seats will fall.Fair play to all candidates for standing it takes guts.
p.s. Saw FF getting a very rough ride in Oliver Bond tonight,nobody said it would be easy.

Ballyfermot-Drimnagh

1.Conaghan
2.Jackson
3.Minihan
4.Smith/FG/Comiskey O'Keeffe

Crumlin-Kimmage

1.Eric Byrne
2.McGinnely
3.Upton
4.Collins/Charlie Ardagh

South West Inner City

1.Gallagher
2.Claire Byrne
3.Ní Dalaigh
4.MacVeigh/Moyinhan/Cathrine Ardagh

Predicted total from local elections in Dublin South Central

FF: 0 Seat(s), Possible 1 Seat(s)
FG: 2 Seat(s), Possible 1 Seat(s)
Labour: 4 Seat(s), Possible 2 Seat(s)
SF: 2 Seat(s), Possible 0 Seat(s)
Green: 0 Seat(s), Possible 0 Seat(s)
PBP: 0 Seat(s), Possible 2 Seat(s)

[cain1798]

Crumlin-Kimmage

1.Eric Byrne
2.McGinnely
3.Upton
4.Collins/Charlie Ardagh

South West Inner City

1.Gallagher
2.Claire Byrne
3.Ní Dalaigh
4.MacVeigh/Moyinhan/Cathrine Ardagh

They're putting the fizzy stuff in the water in Labour I see. Upton taking the third seat means you think they'll both make it over the quota. Labour couldn't come a million miles from it it in 2004 with five seats, yet now you think they can do it with four seats and an even more vitriolic dislike between the two Labour candidates. You're more or less predicting a 50% increase in the Labour voter and an even split at that. Worth remembering Eric passed barely more than 35% of his surplus to the Upton candidate in 2004. I admire your enthusiasm sir, but not your political analysis.

Charlie Ardagh will drop his seat, otherwise no change.

On SWIC, you'd need to be heavily mainlining crack to see John Gallagher topping the poll. He couldn't do it in 2004 and now has a second candidate. Aside from that, he's run a very poor campaign, is under threat from FF, SF and Labour (A different kind of Labour) in his own stronghold of the Liberties.

A month ago I would have predicted Byrne, Ní Dhálaigh, Gallagher and Hogan sneaking it from Moynihan. Now I see Moynihan in third place and Hogan probably losing out to Gallagher on transfers. Moynihan has run a far better campaign than the others and Hogan is still, after months of solid canvassing, the only 'serious' contender for a seat I've never had mentioned by a voter.

Though admittedly some of the mentions about Claire Byrne would not be seen as complimentary....or physically likely.

[L.O. Dublin S.C.]

They're putting the fizzy stuff in the water in Labour I see. Upton taking the third seat means you think they'll both make it over the quota. Labour couldn't come a million miles from it it in 2004 with five seats, yet now you think they can do it with four seats and an even more vitriolic dislike between the two Labour candidates. You're more or less predicting a 50% increase in the Labour voter and an even split at that. Worth remembering Eric passed barely more than 35% of his surplus to the Upton candidate in 2004. I admire your enthusiasm sir, but not your political analysis.

Charlie Ardagh will drop his seat, otherwise no change.

On SWIC, you'd need to be heavily mainlining crack to see John Gallagher topping the poll. He couldn't do it in 2004 and now has a second candidate. Aside from that, he's run a very poor campaign, is under threat from FF, SF and Labour (A different kind of Labour) in his own stronghold of the Liberties.

A month ago I would have predicted Byrne, Ní Dhálaigh, Gallagher and Hogan sneaking it from Moynihan. Now I see Moynihan in third place and Hogan probably losing out to Gallagher on transfers. Moynihan has run a far better campaign than the others and Hogan is still, after months of solid canvassing, the only 'serious' contender for a seat I've never had mentioned by a voter.

Though admittedly some of the mentions about Claire Byrne would not be seen as complimentary....or physically likely.

There is a national increase in Labour support and both candidates have ran great campaigns. Votes from people who voted FF/Green last time will help.

Correction, John Gallagher did top the poll last time: ElectionsIreland.org: 2004 Local - South West Inner City First Preference Votes

[cain1798]

There is a national increase in Labour support and both candidates have ran great campaigns. Votes from people who voted FF/Green last time will help.

Correction, John Gallagher did top the poll last time: ElectionsIreland.org: 2004 Local - South West Inner City First Preference Votes

Topping the poll means that you got more votes than anyone else on the first count. In 2004 John got 1,876 and FG got 1,971. The second number is bigger than the first. For further detail, see the link you suggested to me. The order is the order they got elected in, not the order they polled on the first count.

Leaving aside your basic innumeracy and illiteracy the political point stands. John has run a very bad campaign, there's no-one, including someone like me who would pay money to see John re-elected, who is familiar with SWIC and would say different, and his Labour colleague has run a very good one. If the Labour vote increased by 50% John still couldn't top the poll because he's more or less lost all Labour voters outside of the Liberties and Rialto and from talking to them, he's lost more than a few of those, some to his running mate.

Go do the maths sonny. The number don't work unless you think Moynihan will poll around Catherine Ardagh levels.

[scrawledincrayon]

What's your take on Ballyfermot at this point Cain?

(I ask because I think you're talking sense about the other two wards).