Dublin south Central local elections.

[teachertime]

I called Dublin City Council as their on-line map is not showing any detail of the street names on the boundaries.

I was informed the Ballyfermot Drimnagh electoral area starts at Inchicore C.I.E. works.

My parents live on Inchicore Road and have received leaflets for both electoral areas and this is referred to as Kilmainham on the map.

http://www.dublincity.ie/YourCouncil.../06_LEAMap.pdf

Inchicore Road is in SWIC. The CIE Estate with the excpetion of Granite Terrace is in SWIC and is the border area.

[L.O. Dublin S.C.]

Do people reckon Upton will poll more than Byrne? Not been in the ward I cant say really.

In Ballyfermot Drimnagh how are people seeing it? Will the FG swing pull in a seat? I know the bottom of Drimnagh and Ballyfermot isnt their strong hold and I hadnt thought they d take one but they re out enough and with a decent transfer ratio they ll take one I feel.

Connaghan
Minihan
Jackson
FG

FG will take it ahead of Smith with transfers. I dont think she s doing enough in Drimnagh and never seemed too popular in Ballyfermot.

No, Henry Upton has the name but Eric has been running in elections in the since the late seventies and he topped the poll and exceeded te quota last time. ElectionsIreland.org: 2004 Local - Crumlin Kimmage First Preference Votes

As for Ballyfermot Drimnagh:

Connaghan
Minihan
Jackson

and one of
Smith/FG/Comiskey O'Keeffe

Smith is visible and Drimnagh was kind to Joan Collins last time. FG have a good chance but they are shooting themselves in the foot running two candidates. Naturally, I'm hoping Paul Comiskey O'Keeffe can bring in a second seat for the Labour Party - Páirtí an Lucht Oibre.

[codology]

Just to try and explain the SWIC/Ballyer/Drimnagh divide.Swic starts at Woodfield/Sarsfield rd it take in the CIE Works/Spa Rd area,it has all the Inchicore Rd and it turns left at Emmet Rd and goes all the way to High St.The B/D boundry is basically from Catherine Byrnes office up Tyrconnell Rd taking in everywhere left and right of here up as far as Bluebell.The divide between DB and Crumlin is actually the third secret of Fatima(mansions).

[Upper Chamber]

Folks you can get a map from the council, its not that big a deal. Can we actually talk about the election, candidates, campaigns, who might win?

[cain1798]

Well she won't win but Tina McVeigh had a reasonably sized crew out in the Tenters last night doing a canvass. There was a combined Trot vote of around 800 votes last time but the ward's a lot more competitive now, especially on the progressive (Straining that word to almost breaking point) side with a second Labour candidate, a strong Green campaign and a stronger Sinn Féin campaign.

Maybe around 500 votes, and if the last seat comes down to Labour and the Greens might be interesting to see where they go.

[ON THE ONE ROAD]

is there any interesting independents running? and do people think it's going to be a high or a low turn out. maybe it's still early but i think theres alot of indifference to this election.

[teachertime]

Well she won't win but Tina McVeigh had a reasonably sized crew out in the Tenters last night doing a canvass. There was a combined Trot vote of around 800 votes last time but the ward's a lot more competitive now, especially on the progressive (Straining that word to almost breaking point) side with a second Labour candidate, a strong Green campaign and a stronger Sinn Féin campaign.

Maybe around 500 votes, and if the last seat comes down to Labour and the Greens might be interesting to see where they go.

...

Going for a seat...Don't be crazy Cain ...Codology reckons the Greens have 700 votes here tops and will be lucky to get that and he has a very balanced view and is well up on what is happening on the ground in the ward

[cain1798]

Going for a seat...Don't be crazy Cain ...Codology reckons the Greens have 700 votes here tops and will be lucky to get that and he has a very balanced view and is well up on what is happening on the ground in the ward

Yeah, but you're the guy who thinks Sinn Féin's going to drop a seat in the ward so....

I think the last seat's a hard one to call. On the one hand Hogan's running a much better campaign than Patricia Gardiner in 2004 and that was enough to see her fourth. He's also simply a better candidate.

On the other, it's a more competitive ward and there is a level of animosity towards the Greens I've encountered on the doors. Not a fraction of what it is to FF, but it's there nonetheless and you have Labour and FG well placed to pick it up. Also there was a general anti-FF feel in 2004 that Green candidates then could appeal to but can't now.

It'll be interesting. From a purely political point of view I'd be happier with a Green councillor than someone who would strengthen either Labour or Fianna Fáil. On a personal level I want to see the Government get a kicking.

[teachertime]

Yeah, but you're the guy who thinks Sinn Féin's going to drop a seat in the ward so....

I think the last seat's a hard one to call. On the one hand Hogan's running a much better campaign than Patricia Gardiner in 2004 and that was enough to see her fourth. He's also simply a better candidate.

On the other, it's a more competitive ward and there is a level of animosity towards the Greens I've encountered on the doors. Not a fraction of what it is to FF, but it's there nonetheless and you have Labour and FG well placed to pick it up. Also there was a general anti-FF feel in 2004 that Green candidates then could appeal to but can't now.

It'll be interesting. From a purely political point of view I'd be happier with a Green councillor than someone who would strengthen either Labour or Fianna Fáil. On a personal level I want to see the Government get a kicking.

Good Analysis. The issue for the Greens has always been that even when riding the crest of public opinion it was never capitalised on overall as effectively the machine did not exist on the ground. A machine is in place for the Greens in SWIC now and as you know it has been operating for quite awhile.

Its nothing like the SF machine on the ground but it is working....If it is a choice between Criona and Rebecca Moynihan in terms of maturity, commitment and general life experience ...its a no brainer...but from my own viewpoint I think SF have lost a lot of voters in the area...Micheal's Estate, Teresa's gardens and the general influx of upwardly mobiles and apartment dwellers and I'm not sure if the same SF force exists to get the voters out as last time. Anita Reilly will also take from both John Gallagher's and Criona's vote in the Liberties and not all the 2s will go back to them.

Personally I hope she does it as she is a good Councillor and worker no doubt...but I don't know. Anyway, thats all speculation and we will see shortly. Its certainly an interesting contest. Its a pity the first past the post will probably be the most useless (thanks for the job Ma) Councillor but thats the country we live in.

[codology]

I think Cain and TT should just get a room.