Rathmines, Inner City, Pembroke

[BoboMurphy]

I find it difficult to get information on who is running in the locals with less than a year to go.

Does anyone know who the Greens are running in Rathmines, Inner City and Pembroke and what's your thoughts on how well they will do.

I read the postings on how Labour are putting 2 candidates up in Rathmines. Strange indeed. Is Freehill being shafted here for being too old school?

Also, I hear that Doolan has a chance in the Inner City. What's your thoughts. Are Sinn Fein running anyone in Pembroke or Rathmines, and what's their chances in these two. Isn't Rathmines a fairly young population, and so would Doolan not be better running in here to take that seat???

Do you think the PD's have a chance of a seat in each of the wards now they have a TD in the area.

Thoughts, analysis or skandal anyone.

[David Cochrane]

Politics.ie is finding that information hard to come by as well.

We've begun local coverage of political issues and hope to setup a specific local elections special section of the next soon. We are working with the political parties or making this information available as soon as possible.

David Cochrane
Politics.ie

[BoboMurphy]

Thanks David. I was hoping that your users might provide the info, rather than the party spin. Maybe it's just too early.

[David Cochrane]

Yeah, we're slowing coming out of silly season now - so once the party machines start to work into Local Elections mode, most likely the party-faithful get into gear as well.

Ye never know, the finger might get pulled out earlier than you think!

[joemomma]

The Phoenix is a fabulous source of information on these topics, although it's not always 100% accurate. However, the following info is backed up by a few of my own reliable sources:

Does anyone know who the Greens are running in Rathmines, Inner City and Pembroke and what's your thoughts on how well they will do.

In Rathmines, the Greens are running Ryan Meade, who is the sitting councillor - he was co-opted last year in place of Eamon Ryan TD, who resigned his seat in line with the party's policy on the dual mandate. There's a very strong Green vote in Rathmines (John Gormley first took a Council seat here in 1991), so Ryan has a good chance of keeping this seat, especially as it's a four seater.

In South East Inner City, the Green candidate is Pauline O'Shea, although the sitting Green councillor is Claire Wheeler, who took over from Ciaran Cuffe earlier in the year. Claire has been selected to run in Pembroke, which is the ward she represented from 1991 until she lost the seat in 1999. This is a fairly high-risk strategy, although Dermot Lacey did the exact same thing for Labour in 1999.

Both Pembroke and South East Inner City are 3 seaters, so both Claire and Pauline are up against it. In SEIC, Daithi Doolan (SF) is guaranteed a seat based on his results in the general election, so somebody will have to lose out. In Pembroke, Claire will be trying to muscle out Dermot Lacey, Chris Andrews (FF) or A.N. Other (FG - Joe Doyle is retiring). I think the Greens' only hope here is that the big FG vote will collapse with Joe Doyle's retirement.

John Gormley has a significant vote in each of these areas, however, so the Greens will hope that this can be converted into votes for the local candidates.

I read the postings on how Labour are putting 2 candidates up in Rathmines. Strange indeed. Is Freehill being shafted here for being too old school?

Almost certainly. Ruari Quinn's nephew is running alongside her. The less cynical view would be to say that Labour reckon they need a younger candidate alongside Freehill to hoover up some younger votes for her, but the more cynical (and more plausible) view is that Labour want to trade Mary in for a younger model.

Also, I hear that Doolan has a chance in the Inner City. What's your thoughts. Are Sinn Fein running anyone in Pembroke or Rathmines, and what's their chances in these two. Isn't Rathmines a fairly young population, and so would Doolan not be better running in here to take that seat???

Unless Doolan's vote collapses, he is guaranteed this seat. He has a strong base around Pearse Street, and will poll well in Ringsend also. The population of Rathmines isn't as young as you might think - it still has a population of students in rented accommodation, but probably no more than SEIC. Also, most of these students, if they vote at all, vote in their home constituencies. Doolan polled pitifully outside SEIC in the general election, if I remember correctly, so SF don't really have a hope in Rathmines or Pembroke. I'm not sure if they're even going to run candidates.

Do you think the PD's have a chance of a seat in each of the wards now they have a TD in the area.

They will certainly be hoping that Michael McDowell's vote can be converted into votes for local candidates, but I'm not sure if they can come up with the right candidates. Certainly anybody running under McDowell's imprimatur has a chance, but we'll have to reserve judgement until we see the candidates. The only one I'm aware of is a chap called Cormac Lucey, who is a recent defector from Fine Gael. I think the plan is that he will run in Rathmines.

For what it's worth, here are my predictions as of now:

SEIC: Doolan (SF), Kevin Humphreys (Lab), Gary Keegan (FF)
Pembroke: A.N. Other (FG), Lacey (Lab), Andrews (FF)
Rathmines: Michael Donnelly (FF), Oisin Quinn (Lab), Frances Fitzgerald (FG), Ryan Meade (GP)

Anybody else care to offer predictions?

[Sarnaught]

Dont rule out a resurgent FG in SEIC.

The party seeminlgy commissioned a poll last moth which shocked them by showing the party doing better than expected in Dublin thanks to an FF slip & a failure by boring old Labour to capitalise.

In SEIC, FG have Conor Delaney and Sarah Belton (she who last month had a 2 page feature on the Sunday World - nice one!). Both have been campaigning on the ground for the last year. One of these will run -polls will probably decide which one. Dont rule out an FG gain.

[joemomma]

Sorry, but against your advice I have to say it:

I.
Rule out.
An FG gain in South East Inner City.

It's possible that FG will surprise people in some parts of the city, but not SEIC. Conor Delaney and Sarah Belton may have been working on the ground for a year, but that still puts them several years behind any of the likely winners: Doolan, Keegan and Humphreys. FF's support will certainly soften, but their share of the first preference vote should still be enough to see Keegan home. Humphreys may be 'boring old Labour', but the final seat is likely to go to a party of the left - the sums don't indicate two right-wing seats in this ward.

[cllr]

Any predictions for Pembroke or even who is running

[Dera]

Not much to add just to say that Joe Mommas post of weds is exactly the reason to use this sort of board. It is informative, factual and ends with a prediction. Excellent post well done.

As for predictions,

SEIC
I agree Doolan is a sure bet in SEIC and to a lesser extent the same goes for Keegan (but bear in mind he is a co-opt), the last seat should be Humphries but he is not exactly the most dynamic and personable councillor and his star has waned what with Dermo Laceys perfromance last year. It is inconceivable that FF won't get a least one. As for FG I do agree that they are better organised and have a good stratedgy of letting their local candidates battle it out for the nominations, but quite simply I do not think that the parties own internal dynamic will make the difference they need to gain in locals in Dublin. As for getting a seat in SEIC -no chance. The battle for the last seat will be between Humphires and a Green party. Bear in mind that in the last locals Workers Party got nearly 10% and it those votes that will decide the last seat, obviously SF will pick up most, but expect Doolan to be over the quota and with SF to Grn transfering at 40% it could make the difference. Only prob for Greens is support of bin charges so ....who knows

Rathmines.
I think Ryan Meade will keep his co-opted seat, he has a good profile and hit the ground running last year, also a personabel young man. With Labour, well Mary Freehill has been dabbling since 1977 and she seems to treat her politics as a part time hobby and as for young Quinn, well daddy wasn't exactly a big vote getter. Labour will take a seat here so I would plump for Quinn based on better transfers and his ability to profile himself. FG will also take one and fitzgerald will comfortably get in as long as FG don't try something daft like really push for a second seat, risk a down the middle split and compromise Fitzgerald. FF are vulnerable here, but to whom? I can't see anyone else taking a second seat, the PDs won't get near and SF, who are running a candidiate will be further behind. I think this is one ward that a single issue candidate could slip in.

Pembroke.
I expect the ulster unionist and the conservatives should do well here (!) only joking. I have a strong feeling that this will be a Green gain, Lacey is a show in and I suppose FG would have to get one but perhaps Andrews battle it out with FG here. A strong PDs candidate could cause probs for FG here. Taking enough 1st prefs off the FG candidate that become transfers for the recognised name that is Andrews (liberal FF) and ending in tears for FG.

So,

SEIC - Doolan (SF), Keegan (FF), Humphries (Lab).
Rathmines - Quinn (Lab), Fitzgerald (FG), Meade (Grn), A Fianna Failer.
Pembroke - Wheeler (GRN), Lacey (Lab), Andrews (FF)

[cllr]

This prediction would mean Sinn Fein 1, FF 3, Lab 3, FG 1 and Green 2 does not bear much comparison with General Election. None of the LP candidates are exactly household names for example nor are the FF ones except maybe andrews whose name is known but little else.