Rathmines, Inner City, Pembroke

[cain1798]

Some good points I agree with here. I think Daithi Doolan is a safe bet for the Shinners. It's not a question of whether he'll get elected or not, it's a question of whether he'll top the poll. He topped the poll in that ward in the General Election and he was only narrowly outside getting elected last time in the Locals.

Someone will have to lose out to make way. FF are certain of a seat and I can't see Labour dropping one so the Green will lose out.

SEIC: 1 SF, 1 FF and 1 Labour.

In Rathmines, I can see the Blueshirts holding on to a seat here. The people who voted McDowell are by and large FG voters and will probably go back to them for the Locals. This is also one of FG's best wards in Dublin, they broke 30% here last time and outpolled FF. Labour and FF are also sure of a seat each. The last seat will be a battle between the Greens and SF.

The Shinners picked up just under 500 votes in Rathmines with very little work in the General. Eoin O Sé is a good candidate and as another poster pointed out, well got in the area. Remember too that the Local Elections are the best area for the Shinners, they can pile in people and local work, electorally, they have a better machine, person for person, of any party. Ryan Meade isn't the most impressive candidate either.

That said, I don't see the Shinners taking the seat this time, but they'll run very close, polling high, and their transfers should see Ryan Meade home safe.

Pembroke

Do you still need to have a certain income to be allowed run in Pembroke? Lacey should do it again, his support for the Bin Charges is not going to cripple him in a ward where people pay their Bin Charges through their accountant. For the remaining two seats there'll be a three way fight between FG, FF and the Greens. Basically it comes down to whether FG's vote holds up with Doyle gone, if it does, and I think it will enough, they'll hold their seat. It will then be for FF to hold off the Greens. Without the Shinners, there's nobody else in the constituency who would transfer heavy to the Greens but the anti-FF and anti-estabilshment vote has nowhere else to go except Wheeler. I think she'll do it.

For Dublin South East in general then:
FF: 2
FG: 2
Lab: 3
Gr: 2
SF: 1

[cllr]

Think your are probably right about SEIC and rathmines - though will it be Freehill or Quinn for Labour. I think Freehill,and what about the new FF candidate who it appears is being groomed for the General Election.

In Pembroke still not sure. Iit is a fairly wealthy area and while Bin Charges will not do Lacey any harm it is not a a natural Labour area and he could be struggling, cannot see an Andrews lose even with drop in FF vote and combined PD?FG vote surely enough for one of them.

[cllr]

Know about Doolin and O'Shea for SF and presumimg the three existing FF Councillors will run any info on the new candidates. Who is running for the PD's, any new labour or FG big names. Seems to be little info coming through resouth East

[sean15]

I here Ivana Bacik is doing well in polling in South East for the European elections.

My labour sources tell me shes being groomed in for Ruairis seat.

[cllr]

Ithink Ivana has a good chance of winning a seat in Europe and I think she does too. Anyway she is more likely to seek to win a seanad seat than a Dail one. It would suit more.

[cllr]

If Clare Wheeler is moving to Pembroke who are the Greens running in Inner City and have the FG candidates all over South East been selected yet. Rathmines is probably their best bet with Francis Fizgerald if she runs any bets on Quinn or Freehill in Rathmines.

[cain1798]

The Greens are running a woman called Pauline O'Shea according to their website. No other info about her.

[cllr]

So if Humphreys or Doolin top the poll, the other will be second and the race is on between FF and the Greens. Can anyone see FF not winning any seat I think that to be unlikely. Though the fact that she is a woman could tip the balance.

So: Hunphreys,
Doolin
Keegan

[cain1798]

Just did a few ring rounds the SEIC re Ms O'Shea and I think the strategists of the other parties can sleep soundly in their beds.

An interesting question to ask Ms O'Shea would be if as a Green party candidate who should support party policy, does she feel this is contradicted by taking part in SWP canvasses for anti-bin tax petitions when her party supports the Bin Tax?

There's a couple of other things as well but basically she's not taken seriously by the powers that be in SEIC

[Edited on 8/4/2004 by andrew]

[graceofgarret]

Meant to ask does anybody know if Colm Mc Eochaidh is running in Locals. If he is to stay around in DSE he would probably need a Council seat

No he isnt running in the Locals.
He's planning to run for the Europeans