Well, this isn't a general election! You hardly have to be a household name to get a seat on City Council - how many Councillors can you name?
If the results were to follow the share of the vote in the General election we'd be looking at something like:
Highly unlikely if you ask me. Ruairi Quinn may have polled poorly in the GE, but there's still a Labour seat to be won in each of these words. Similarly, Michael McDowell's poll-topping performance won't count for much unless he can find some substantial local PD candidates.
Think I did this before but somehow it got lost. Here's a possible result.
Rathmines 1 FF, 1 FG, I PD and 1 lab (Freehill)
South Inner City 1 FF, 1 lab 1 Green - better for transfers than SF
Pembroke Andrews, Wheeler and Lacey - though PDs could sneek that one - with old Hederman vote and FG votes boing a begging
I think a lot of the posts predicting the outcome of the locals are very conservative in their predictions.
They don't seem to take into account the forthcoming protest vote against the government. McDowell has lost his seat previously, and with his arrogance and ignorance, I don't believe he could get himself elected, never mind another party member.
I think there will be a surprise in the numbers voting for Labour, Sinn Fein and the Greens. I think FG are as good as buried in Dublin, and don't see them taking 1 seat in any of the three, Pembroke, Inner City or Rathmines. The safest would be Fitzgerald, and she hasn't done a rap since her hammering in the Generals.
Sinn Fein have nominated Doolan for the Inner City, and O'Se for Rathmines this week. O'Se was involved in Doolan's last campaign, and is well got in the Rathmines area. I think a lot of votes will move from FF to Sinn Fein and they have an outside chance in Rathmines, and are a certainty in Inner City.
My predictions are:
Inner City: Greens 1, SF 1, FF 1
Pembroke: FF 1, Greens 1, Labour 1
Rathmines: FF 1, Labour 1, SF 1, Greens 1
That gives FF 3, Greens 3, Labour 2, SF 2
I also predict that the Labour seat in Rathmines will stay with Freehill, as she is around for too long to be beaten.
Who is this ” Sť character and why do you think he could get elected in Rathmines? Unless he's on the Unionist wing of SF I don't fancy his chances :P
I agree that FG are in trouble, but I would be very surprised if there isn't at least one seat for them between Rathmines and Pembroke - they were way ahead of everybody else in these wards in 1999. If they play their cards right - i.e. don't run too many candidates - Frances Fitzgerald could keep her seat even if their share of the vote halves. Her loss in the General Election had a lot to do with FG votes moving to McDowell.
I do think McDowell is still popular in the area, but I don't think it will translate into Council seats. PD non-entities have done poorly here in the past.
You say you think a lot of votes will move from FF, but you predict no change in their representation - I would say they are vulnerable in all three constituencies, but will probably come through as you predict. The most vulnerable is probably Garry Keegan in SEIC - Chris Andrews has built up a bit of a profile through the General Election, and Michael Donnelly is probably safe in his 4-seater.
Other than that I have no problem with your predictions - especially as they call for 3 Greens being elected
Never heard of O'shea. or any indication of activity. Bit hard to see Humphreys losing out in SEIC and while Andrews in Pembroke has a profile he does'nt seem to make many actual contributions. I still think the Pds could sneek the Labour seat in Pembroke. there is an old and strong FG vote there and also the sort of Hederman vote that could swing PD way.Yeah I'll stick by the earlier prediction
From what I hear he's aiming for a tilt at Europe. He used to appear on FG's fliers as one of their local reps in Rathmines, but not any more. The last one of these leaflets I saw included Frances Fitzgerald, Brian Gillen and Edie Wynne. Not sure if this is going to be their final list of candidates.
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